2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8.

 Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1?

 But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe:

 

01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

[snowman19]

 Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8.
 Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1?
 But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe:

 
01JUL2026         2.7        1.5        1.2        0.5
 08JUL2026         2.6        1.7        1.3        0.5

We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

Thanks, Adam.

It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

[snowman19]

Thanks, Adam.
It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

Agreed.

[GaWx]

 We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

[LakePaste25]

The big question is, does the +ENSO signal become so strong by winter that its forcing overwhelms it in the seasonal mean? Do we start to see the -PDO finally reverse? 

 

[frontranger8]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The northern tier trough signal was more apparent looking at the past 30 days. Focused in the middle of the country. 

[MJO812]

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

[GaWx]

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

Knock yourself out! Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/new-york-could-see-strongest-winter-in-a-decade/?tsq=sl&fbclid=IwdGRjcATCHlFjbGNrBMIePmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjp6J1TGE9ocHNhW8ZxgHKT91qC7PujWKSAcNuIu8S94zzo0OpS9RyHnJfyZ_aem_HlxhPu2lZX-qOcRhk70wDw

 

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don’t  the messenger:  I’d like to see, if possible, and if it doesn’t take forever to find out if this JFM really is the coldest ever forecasted going back to 2012. Is it worth my valuable time? Probably not. What do y’all think about this map, which is a mean of a whopping 10 days of runs of its ensemble as opposed to just one run?

Precip anoms from same run:

As I said, I'm going to wait until the fall before taking this seriously. If the strong winter signal is still there in September/October, then you know it's going to be a cold and snowy winter. 2009-10 was the last time a strong winter signal held in the fall during a developing strong el nino. Contrast that to 2015-16 and 2023-24, when there was no strong winter signal in the fall months.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The big question is, does the +ENSO signal become so strong by winter that its forcing overwhelms it in the seasonal mean? Do we start to see the -PDO finally reverse? 

 

In the old days with super El Niños, the strong low level westerlies would extend north from the tropics into the mid-latitudes like in 1997.

During the 2020s, the subtropical or mid-latitude ridges have grown to record levels. So the westerly flow is much weaker with the high pressure dominating.

The warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii is allowed to continue leading to the persistent -PDO. This prevents the strong +PDO response that was typical in 1997 and 2015.

This is also why we have see strong to record heat domes across the CONUS since May from time to time instead of the cooler typical El Niño pattern this time of year. 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In the old days with super El Niños, the strong low level westerlies would extend north from the tropics into the mid-latitudes like in 1997.

During the 2020s, the subtropical or mid-latitude ridges have grown to record levels. So the westerly flow is much weaker with the high pressure dominating.

The warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii is allowed to continue leading to the persistent -PDO. This prevents the strong +PDO response that was typical in 1997 and 2015.

This is also why we have see strong to record heat domes across the CONUS since May from time to time instead of the cooler typical El Niño pattern this time of year. 

 

 

Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall. 

 

[LakePaste25]

 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely a lack of +U out there in the N pac. Wonder if this changes in the Fall. 

 

This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes.

Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. 

Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges.

July forecast issued in May

 

Verification so far

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes.

Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. 

Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges.

July forecast

 

Verification so far

 

 

Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is now stored in the Pacific basin. ENSO simply isn't as prominent a driver anymore because it's partially offset and this is what RONI tries to convey.

I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.

[LakePaste25]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes.

Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. 

Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges.

July forecast issued in May

 

Verification so far

 

 

A lot of times, these seasonal models lean too heavily into the ENSO state. Same with the CPC seasonal outlooks. We saw that the last 2 winters with too much emphasis on the SE ridge in the East. 

Since this El Niño is going to be very strong to historic, I feel that the generic outlooks for the seasonal mean this winter will end up being more accurate. 

We will also need to see if the pacific jet strengthens this Fall and begins to reverse the -PDO. 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly what I was getting at the past couple of days...pattern resembles La Nina right now. In the past, this would imply a flaw in the development of El Nino, whether it be weak and/or poorly coupled. However, that is not necessarily the case in our modern climate. Powerful, well coupled warm ENSO and cold phase Pacific are no longer mutually exclusive due to the degree of heat that is not stored in the Pacific basin.

I think Adam perceived this as me saying that El Nino isn't as well developed as most think, but that is not at all the case. It's just facing more prominent competition from around the hemisphere relative to it's predecessors.

Yeah, I have been saying this for a while now. Once past the spring predictability barrier, the models like the Euro do a great job with ENSO SST plumes forecast. So the record breaking nature of this event isn’t in doubt.

We can see the strong coupling with the atmospheric patterns in the tropics and the very high shear in the Caribbean. But the subtropics or mid-latitudes continue to do their own thing. It’s a very strong -PDO pattern north of the tropics rights now.

If this mid-latitude pattern can continue to have some influence going into the winter, then the Aleutian low could split or end up in a different location than usual. It’s also possible the typical strong Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay could at least at times get displaced further to the south over the Eastern CONUS.

This could mean that the heavily precipitation zones with the STJ may vary from the 1997-1998 locations like we saw in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I have been saying this for a while now. Once past the spring forecast barrier, the models like the Euro do a great job with ENSO SST plumes forecast. So the record breaking nature of this event isn’t in doubt.

We can see the strong coupling with the atmospheric patterns in the tropics and the very high shear in the Caribbean. But the subtropics or mid-latitudes continue to do their own thing. It’s a very strong -PDO pattern north of the tropics rights now.

If this mid-latitude pattern can continue to have some influence going into the winter, then the Aleutian low could split or end up in a different location than usual. It’s also possible the typical strong Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay could at least at times get displaced further to the south over the Eastern CONUS.

This could mean that the heavily precipitation zones with the STJ may vary from the 1997-1998 locations like we saw in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. 

 

The influence of ENSO is more geographically restricted now and more largely relegated to the tropics, regardless of it's intensity. Powerful events are more influential....in the tropics. However, the mid latitudes are now more dictated by these marine heat waves and expanding ridges.

I get what Adam is saying....this El Nino is a powerhouse, but it's just that it's more the scope of Andrew rather than Katrina.