2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish. 

We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference. 

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. 

Per NOAA in DJF (my def. of neutral PNA is between -0.25 and +0.25)

1. 2024-5 was, indeed, very +PNA with a whopping 72 of 90 days being +PNA vs 18 neutral PNA and zero -PNA! That’s amazing for La Niña! Going back to 1949-50, the only other DJF without a single -PNA day was 2002-3!

2. 2025-6 was actually a more typical La Niña with more -PNA than +PNA: 49 -PNA, 14 neutral PNA, and 27 +PNA.

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

[jaxjagman]

We had a -PDO in the strong NINO of 57-58,we just had some good North Atlantic blocking,it was quite cold in the TnValley,maybe Global warming is a player now which seems possible,but that was quite unusual when you see waterways in Mid Tn freeze up in J/F,it that happens agin who knows

[TheClimateChanger]

I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.

Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve.

The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short.

So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States.

Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve.

The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short.

So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.

Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm. 

I think it would be warmer if El Niño DIDN'T take over entirely. Anyway, all I said was El Niño still has work to do....I never even implied that there is no chance that it will not take over the hemisphere entirely this fall.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference. 

Very feasible....I don't debate that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover. 

Exactly.

2 hours ago, roardog said:

You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. 
 One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.

1997-98 had a cold November with multiple snowfalls. It was definitely a front loaded winter.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W.
 

For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S:

2N: avg ~30.0C

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii

2S: avg ~30.2C

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii

 

But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S:

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii

————————————

How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W?

2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii

 

2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii

2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare

———————

Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. Primitive deflection tactic.

When last winters cold was becoming imminent is when I first remember the bizarre slew of posts in different languages to say it wouldn't stay cold. When snowman cant find an English tweet to say warm is when winter lovers knew it was game on.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover. 

 

2 hours ago, roardog said:

You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish. 

I dont care if Nino peaks at 5.0...I really only care about the weather in my backyard. I mean, most weather weenies do. 

Any early thoughts for Michigan? Ive been thinking 2015-16 is a decent starting point but I've also been looking more into 1877-78.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that. 

Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños.

In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged.

The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence.

So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. The

The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal. 

But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth.