bluewave Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 mario ramirez super nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Your point? All he did was post the model run just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? Be back now...hard at work on post season analysis. Just complete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: OT, but just for awareness. A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. My cool/wet summer for the great lakes will go up in flames unless we start seeing this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 get ready 2 torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. You can see the general outline of the May El Niño 500 mb composite taking shape with alterations probably due to the competing marine heatwaves. The coming near to record May heatwave forecast for the East next week is much warmer than we typically see with such strong developing El Niños. Stronger Southeast ridge could be a function of the weaker RONI relative to ONI and more general subtropical ridging adding a more Niña-like flavor to the mix. The May Western North America El Niño ridge is located a little further SW than usual with the weaker Baja trough than they typically see. May 4th to 11th strong Nino ridge in SW Canada and Aleutian low north of Hawaii Forecast May 18th to 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 ^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 June Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Hasn't it kind of looked like this for 7 months for the most part with the coolness in the Lakes/NE and very warm in the west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Hasn't it kind of looked like this for 7 months for the most part with the coolness in the Lakes/NE and very warm in the west? March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 15 Author Share Posted May 15 CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1. Thanks. I thought predominantly from like Nov-Now minus like a 6 week break it wasnt like the map above. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 2 hours ago, FPizz said: Thanks. I thought predominantly from like Nov-Now minus like a 6 week break it wasnt like the map above. Carry on... Mar & Apr were warm doninated...the rest came dominated here. DTW monthly departures- Nov: -0.4 Dec: -3.6 Jan: -5.2 Feb: -0.2 Mar: +4.9 Apr: +5.2 May: -5.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Pretty solid -SOIs all due to very low Tahiti SLP as Darwin is also a bit BN: 16 May 2026 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 -7.40 -0.93 15 May 2026 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 -6.36 -0.50 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 “This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. The developing El Niño isn’t the only thing going on now. The early month pattern with the more +PNA was closer to what we typically see with the May correlation. But this coming heatwave is more related to the MJO 4-6 convection pumping the Southeast ridge. The +30C wam pool extends all the way back to the IO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Poaching this off Spaceweather.com but I thought you ENSO geese might find this interesting... SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago. A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean. In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next. Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on. Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown. At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity. The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well. It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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