2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo)

 

*Edited for typo

[GaWx]

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

 

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki

[bluewave]

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

[forkyfork]

cope and cry

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, Cobalt said:

it's okay, we're all wrong sometimes

 

it made a bunch of weird losers mad. mission accomplished <3

[FPizz]

18 hours ago, Cobalt said:

it's okay, we're all wrong sometimes

 

Typical awfulness from the worst red tagger on the board

[forkyfork]

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cope and cry

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

Who cares

[WX-PA]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

72-73 also had some near misses to.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it made a bunch of weird losers mad. mission accomplished <3

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

cope and cry

So does that mean if it's 3.5 instead of 2.5 that we're going to melt?. Will Los Angeles fall into the ocean? Trying to figure the out the hype..Yes ithere will be above normal temps this winter, doesn't mean there won't be any winter weather.

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Cansips was good last winter where the CFS 2 had a torch, but yea every Super Nino is warm. We will have to wait to see how warm

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

So does that mean if it's 3.5 instead of 2.5 that we're going to melt?. Will Los Angeles fall into the ocean? Trying to figure the out the hype..Yes ithere will be above normal temps this winter, doesn't mean there won't be any winter weather.

Yeah. All of that is going to happen plus fish will be living out of water and mosquitos will bite themselves. It’s going to be crazy!!

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 
 

 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares

all the people in this thread trying to wishcast away a super

[snowman19]

all the people in this thread trying to wishcast away a super

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Cansips was good last winter where the CFS 2 had a torch, but yea every Super Nino is warm. We will have to wait to see how warm

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting.

But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

CanSIPS was too cold overall across the CONUS during the 2025-2026 winter. It verified as the 2nd warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

To be fair none of the models correctly forecast how warm and expansive the Western ridge would become. This allowed the East to turn out colder for a change than the seasonal models such as the CanSIPS were forecasting.

But the magnitude and geographic coverage of the cold was limited compared to the expansive and record breaking nature of the warmth. 
 

 

 

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.

The EPS weeklies actually did a decent job beginning in late October into November seeing the general 500mb pattern.

But the Western ridge verified much stronger skewing the total CONUS significantly warmer.

This allowed our area to beat the guidance to the colder side for a change. The first colder winter with above average snowfall in 11 years for our region made it really stand out against the sea of warmth since 2015-2016. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

Global temperatures will jump, unless we get an eruption of Mt. Rainier (and really soon).

Remember, Pinatubo erupted in mid-June of a developing strong el nino. Prevented a temperature jump from happening in 1992, and in fact temporarily caused a decrease in global temperatures. Also, led to one of the coldest summers on record CONUS in 1992, as well as contributed to the great winters of 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96 in the Eastern US.

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Global temperatures will jump, unless we get an eruption of Mt. Rainier (and really soon).

Remember, Pinatubo erupted in mid-June of a developing strong el nino. Prevented a temperature jump from happening in 1992, and in fact temporarily caused a decrease in global temperatures. Also, led to one of the coldest summers on record CONUS in 1992, as well as contributed to the great winters of 1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96 in the Eastern US.

boy you people are desperate

[GaWx]

Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point.
 
 This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:

 

 

[GaWx]

OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is: