2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

Yeah, the pacific vortex being much further west in December 2009 allowed the blocking pattern to pin TPVs under the block. The vortex is much closer to the west coast with these E based events, so even with a good blocking pattern the cold would be very fleeting as the vortex pushing warm air into canada will try to scour it out. 

2009:

Now: 

 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Overall much too cool a forecast for the CONUS in October since we are in top 5 warmth territory.

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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After finishing with the record warmest July, the record warmest August, and the record warmest September, the Contiguous U.S. is on pace to have the 4th warmest October on record. The warmest, 1963, was 4.8F above normal. It's still possible that this October could move higher up the list.

 

11:30 AM · Oct 23, 2026

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah, the pacific vortex being much further west in December 2009 allowed the blocking pattern to pin TPVs under the block. The vortex is much closer to the west coast with these E based events, so even with a good blocking pattern the cold would be very fleeting as the vortex pushing warm air into canada will try to scour it out. 

2009:

Now: 

 

You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end?

[MJO812]

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

Sit tight! Lol

[snowman19]

There are many more. Absolute clown show on there

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Sit tight! Lol

Told ya'!  Lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are many more. Absolute clown show on there

 

 

Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end?

Guaranteed, take it to the bank that the vortex will not be even close to as west as 2009 in December in the monthly mean. The OLR coming out of the tropical pacific is already much further east-based. 

[snowman19]

Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen.

He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015

Its only October.  Too early to say who will be wrong or right 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

In terms of most people who have had much lower early season heating demand with such high energy costs these days it’s a big help to their finances.

The average people I speak to off this forum has been very happy with how warm the winters have become since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

So this board is a real minority in terms of the general populace which would rather spend their winters in Florida than the Northern States. 

Internal migration has been to the sunbelt from the colder climates across the CONUS. But there has been shift to this pattern in the last few years. 

 

[forkyfork]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They say a perfect environment for humans to thrive is a global temp 5-7F warmer. 

..except for the 2 billion or so folks who rely on stable glaciers for irrigation, water supply. Also the 1.5 billion or so people who live within 10km of a coastline.

[mitchnick]

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Lol. It's October. Who cares. Are you seeking relevance or attention?

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. It's October. Who cares. Are you seeking relevance or attention?

Yes

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

It’s not worth it to get worked up over what’s posted on twitter IMO. There’s plenty of trash posted and not just about weather. 

[forkyfork]

On 3/9/2026 at 6:10 PM, michsnowfreak said:

We won't know the reality for months, but i would be SHOCKED if the 2026-27 el nino is strong. You just dont get strong events like that 3 years apart. 

haha

[forkyfork]

On 3/25/2026 at 7:40 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gun-to-head right now....I don't think we are going to see that warm of a result accompanying El Nino again at such a short return rate, warming background state not withstanding. We just had a super El Nino that heralded in this western-warm pool oriented regime in 2016, and then the one in 2024 which seems to have triggered a "changing of the guard" so to speak in the north Pacific. 

oops

[forkyfork]

On 3/25/2026 at 12:12 PM, michsnowfreak said:

2002-03 like would definitely be an interesting outcome!

nope

[forkyfork]

On 3/26/2026 at 3:11 PM, mitchnick said:

Idk what's going to come of next winter, but this Stormsurf link has a lot of info and I've posted it before. Watching it the past 10-14 days, I'm not seeing off the Cfs links the things that were showing up back in 23/24. First of all, the SSTA plumes are starting to show a much weaker Nino. Likewise, as Chuck's mentioned, the SOI ain't cooperating.  But what I find more compelling is the 3 month MJO forecast. The westerly wind anomalies represented by the yellow/red, seem to be stuck west of the dateline except for a brief intrusion east mid/late April-mid May. Moreover, there remains pockets of blue (easterly wind anomalies) scattered east of the dateline through the end of the forecast period in late June.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

I know it's early, but if that forecast doesn’t start showing some substantial changes, strong or super Niño forecasts look like a tough sell.

oops

[forkyfork]

On 3/30/2026 at 7:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking a the data, 2.0 is a pretty crucial threshold....you still have a fighting chance until you get over 2.0, then it's lights out. 1957 halted right at 2.0.

lights out

[forkyfork]

On 3/30/2026 at 8:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.

we are currently approaching +3

[forkyfork]

On 3/31/2026 at 7:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes.

1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with....

My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

wrong

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

oops

Owning mistakes and learning from them is more important than flaunting victories. I don't hide from them at all....people value transparency.

Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

lights out

For above average snowfall in my area? Certainly...old news.

[forkyfork]

On 4/1/2026 at 3:05 PM, snowman19 said:

Said it the other day, but I think “high-end” strong is going to be the floor with this event, with super prospects increasing 

@bluewave

bravo

[forkyfork]

On 4/2/2026 at 10:18 AM, GaWx said:

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

haha

[forkyfork]

On 4/2/2026 at 12:12 PM, GaWx said:

On the way to perhaps a healthy ~+1.7c RONI Modoki similar to 1957-8. Nice!

blew past that before midsummer. lol