2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating.  Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.

I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.

No one wants cold now anyway

[Lucy Pull]

With the way forcing has been setup I’m feeling a warmer version of December 1997 than 2015. 
 

All bets off if we pop an eastern ridge and it connects with the Canadian ridge.
 

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating.  Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.

Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly.

So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño.

We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs  during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly.

So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño.

We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs  during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?

Maybe because your pushing December 2015 with +10 and others here are more sensible and realistic. A December +3-+5 is more in line with 72,82, and 97..than the extreme iof 2015. . 

[forkyfork]

how is dec 2015 so unreasonable if the climate has warmed since then and this nino is stronger?

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...

and this nino is a steroid injection

[JVscotch]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how is dec 2015 so unreasonable if the climate has warmed since then and this nino is stronger?

I thought the MJO was the biggest factor, as MJO went through phases 4-6 in December which amplified the warmth.  The MJO has heavily been absent from these phases since summer.  If somehow we manage to hit them, then sure. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, JVscotch said:

I thought the MJO was the biggest factor, as MJO went through phases 4-6 in December which amplified the warmth.  The MJO has heavily been absent from these phases since summer.  If somehow we manage to hit them, then sure. 

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, JVscotch said:

I thought the MJO was the biggest factor, as MJO went through phases 4-6 in December which amplified the warmth.  The MJO has heavily been absent from these phases since summer.  If somehow we manage to hit them, then sure. 

Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens

There is also no antecedent airmass to work with this early in the season.

[JVscotch]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens

I hear you.  I believe it’s more than just that.  We are still in late October and I feel need to see how things develop in November and heading towards December.  I know the strat stuff has mixed reviews on impacts but I still feel more comfortable seeing it taking strong hits than not.  This El Niño is a beast and east-based, but the warmth in 3 and 3.4 is stronger than 1997 as well which can hopefully allow further westward movement of the North Pacific low a couple times if it also feels extreme blocking over the arctic.  I think as a whole, it’ll be hard to fight the El Niño’s tendency to overwhelm but not impossible with other forcing from MJO and the arctic. Others have stated this kind of stuff already so nothing new, but I do feel is important.  Being in MD, I’m just hoping for a good storm or two as we are long overdue for a big dog. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb. 

 

 For those who don’t realize how unprecedented in the ERA5 records this is forecasted to be at 10mb, 60N:

The 0Z 10/27/26 EPS mean is forecasted to be 10-14 below the weakest on record (I don’t know how far back though) and 24-29 below the mean per ERA5 data Nov 3rd-10th!

[forkyfork]

15 +10 months somewhere in the country in the past decade and somehow dec 2015 is too extreme to consider

[Prismshine Productions]

all you need is a trough in the west and this happens

We all know winter is going to be a blowtorch, no need to post anomaly maps Captain Obvious. Although you do need to open your viewpoint to see the entire board instead of just temps:

We have descending solar + geomag interference

A warm pool east of Japan and PDO that is being more stubborn than 4th Quarter/OT Dan Quinn playcalling

A record warm Pacific in the ENSO regions but still have a nagging ENSO-cool background state that is persistent.

A Polar Vortex that is going to be under repeated strain.

And the ENSO is supposed to drop over the course of winter as we head towards another La Nina.

However: the Pacific Firehose also means that we have AN precip on the East Coast that will help offset the AN temps. Lower snow ratios sure, but still snow chances from Nor'easters. The average temp for interior New England for example of around 25 in deep winter can survive a +7 easily and still get accumulation. Point is: record warm yes, but when you factor in everything else (QBO, AO, NAO, PNA, etc) in this specific combo? We all got to wait and see just how extreme it will be since computer models can both be too warm or too cool





Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how is dec 2015 so unreasonable if the climate has warmed since then and this nino is stronger?

 

[forkyfork]

post about dec 2015 and the hive closes in

[Lucy Pull]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

15 +10 months somewhere in the country in the past decade and somehow dec 2015 is too extreme to consider

I’m not against seeing +10 or more anomalies in the northern CONUS. I think this is quite probable.

Im just not ready to say we rip +10 on the entire east coast. Especially towards the southeast like 2015. 

If we get an eastern ridge linking up with the Canadian ridge all bets off. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Keith Central PA said:

Maybe because your pushing December 2015 with +10 and others here are more sensible and realistic. A December +3-+5 is more in line with 72,82, and 97..than the extreme iof 2015. . 

 

The exact CONUS locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month.

We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS.

So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier.

We are just going to have to see where the warmest departures set up once the winter actually starts. 

There is always regional variability involved as to where the highest departures set up. During our last super El Niño in December 2023 it was INL that got the +15.3° departure. 

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

[Keith Central PA]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

15 +10 months somewhere in the country in the past decade and somehow dec 2015 is too extreme to consider

ok lets look at December 2015..NYC CKP..one day with a high of 70,  had 11 days with highs over 60, 12 days with highs over 50. 0 days with highs in the 30's, 0 days with temps below freezing in a winter month that's almost impossible. All it takes is one shot of arctic cold, or some rainy days with temps in the 40's. to have a more reasonable above average month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

post about dec 2015 and the hive closes in

I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.

[Prismshine Productions]

I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.

Plus increased cloud cover from precip will cap the extremes a bit

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Plus increased cloud cover from precip will cap the extremes a bit

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.

[LakePaste25]

I don’t see the purpose of arguing with someone over and over if you disagree with their forecast. if someone forecasts december 2015, so be it. you can check back later and see if it verifies.

Personally think a “super torch” outcome is more likely in the upper midwest instead of the NE because the STJ will extend much further eastward this time around, which means more coastal storms and ridge pushed more into Canada, both limiting factors.