2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of bump material. Same people forecasted a warm winter last year.

And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).

He blocked me on Twitter 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He blocked me on Twitter 

Did you scream "police brutality "?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is anyone subscribed to The World Climate Center paywall?

I made an inquiry about a trial, but haven't heard back.....I'm looking to access a data set...

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

I remember people saying we will not get anymore HECS because of the planet warming. Well last year said wait a minute. 

[forkyfork]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

~50% of the 12z eps with reversals at 10mb today. Increased % on the 12z GEFS today too from ~25% yesterday. Really curious how this all ends up. It doesn't automatically mean cold for anyone if that happens. Never does. It could mean torch... These things are never cut and dry. Just watching for now...
 

Exactly, the PV could end up splitting into Europe and eastern Siberia. And we still have a mega ridge on the east coast. I have seen so much crap on social media especially in the ski industry reposting click bait saying “PV split, here comes the snow”


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, the PV could end up splitting into Europe and eastern Siberia. And we still have a mega ridge on the east coast. I have seen so much crap on social media especially in the ski industry reposting click bait saying “PV split, here comes the snow”


.

This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This what I was getting at with a reflection event being the safer bet....these warmings are feast or famine, whether they result in reversals or not....yet they result in these mass cyber-orgies.

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

It actually went noticeably north from yesterday. 

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER

[cmillzz]

On 10/25/2026 at 5:07 PM, qg_omega said:

Should be warmer

Yeah, prob some +15 anomalies for the northern tier

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER, WINTER

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough). 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Get this all teed up for @bluewaveto compare it to future warmer runs as the ridge trends southward.

That’s the classic week 3 to 4 Euro default 500 mb pattern that it was running with during November 2015. It didn’t start to see the actual December 2015 pattern until the month already started. Not much skill with the weeklies beyond 15 days.

Forecast

 

Verification

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Good example here on the AI of how forcing can pull the trough west from time to time. MJO exits the IO and MC where it is completely suppressed, then activates forcing over the dateline and slowly pulls east (along with the trough). 

The strong low frequency (El Nino) forcing is totally different from what we saw back in 2015. The MC and eastern IO is completely shutdown and has been since spring, courtesy of the severely east-based super Nino, weak MJO, due to the Nino overwhelming everything, the entire 30C warm pool is moved all the way to 140W and the +IOD is reinforcing all of this. The ++PMM is also helping to lock it in