2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[FPizz]

57 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Its a risk / reward climate here. The chances of breaching 95/96 for the snowiest winter is also on the table any given year due to our proximity to the ocean (noreasters) and latitude. I can see both happening in my lifetime.

In fact the snowiest winter was only 2 years prior to the latest snowfall year of 97/98

Great post.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

You said in your earlier post that I responded to:

“It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super.”

1. The CPC officially now has 72-3 at +2.0, not +1.8, as I showed, because ONI hasn’t been official since Feb.

2. You said,

“With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.”

 No, it’s not RONI making the event seem weaker. It’s ONI making the current Nino seem stronger than it really is due to GW. That’s the reason the RONI exists.
 
 ONI isn’t per NOAA and BoM the absolute strength of the 26 Nino, itself, because that exaggerates the strength due to adding the increasing warming from GW to the warming from El Niño, itself. The warming from El Niño, itself, is what RONI measures.

 I’ll use a hypothetical example to illustrate better:

-Say that the avg worldwide tropical ocean 30 year SSTa is at +1.0 vs its prior 30 year avg. Now say that 3.4 is also at +1.0 vs its own 30 yr avg. Per ONI it’s a +1.0 Nino. But per RONI it’s at 0.0/neutral because it’s measuring the contrast of the 3.4 anom vs the anomaly of the tropical waters. NOAA and BoM at the least have determined that +1.0 is deceptively high in this example because 3.4 is up to +1.0 due to GW, not because of El Niño. 

 Measuring the true strength of ENSO means measuring the contrast with surrounding tropical waters. If 3.4 and avg tropical waters are both at +1.0c there’s essentially no contrast (no relatively warm tongue in 3.4) and thus no Nino. A contrast is needed to have a Nino (or a Niña) per the official RONI. With no contrast like in this example it is neutral.

@mitchnick

The original paper that RONI is based on discusses it mostly being developed to prevent weak La Nina’s from getting lost in the mix rather than some deficiency in measuring super El Niño events.

Plus the weaker El Niños not being able to fully couple. Both instances were also a function of the record WPAC warm pool. 

So the ONI and the absolute SSTs are a good measure of how intense this event is becoming.

My original ONI post was correct as the original ONIs we relied on for many years into the 2010s had the ONI with the 1972-1973 event peaking at the +2.0 to +2.1 range. So a lower end super El Niño event. 

 

[forkyfork]

wait, so this is the least appropriate type of enso event for using RONI? lol

[LakePaste25]

RONI vs ONI are not important to me this year because both are well above the threshold for super on the daily index, and will be for the 3 month index eventually. 

for records, I only care about absolute SSTs. similar to how we measure record heatwaves based on setting the absolute temperature of say, 105 degrees, not the “record anomaly.” We are currently above record SSTs in the 3.4 region. 

 

[forkyfork]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.

says the person doing exxon's work for free

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

says the person doing exxon's work for free

Well considering of all the people in the world that die from temperature extremes, cold causes outnumber warm by a ratio of 9-to-1, I must be doing the right thing for humanity. 

[OSUmetstud]

We really giving the flu and other cold viruses credit for cold deaths lol. 

[OSUmetstud]

We can debate oni v roni all we want but you still have at least four different SST analyzes and climatologies and roni adjustments and scaling at the bom, cpc, ukmet, and ecmwf. So good luck!

[OSUmetstud]

Nino 1.2 really went for broke this past month. ECMWF September forecast and spread overlaid with verification. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The original paper that RONI is based on discusses it mostly being developed to prevent weak La Nina’s from getting lost in the mix rather than some deficiency in measuring super El Niño events.

Plus the weaker El Niños not being able to fully couple. Both instances were also a function of the record WPAC warm pool. 

So the ONI and the absolute SSTs are a good measure of how intense this event is becoming.

My original ONI post was correct as the original ONIs we relied on for many years into the 2010s had the ONI with the 1972-1973 event peaking at the +2.0 to +2.1 range. So a lower end super El Niño event. 

 

1. The concept of RONI applies to all ENSO.

2. ONI is a good measure of the combo of GW and ENSO. RONI is a good measure of ENSO, alone.

3. NOAA officially currently has 1972-3 at +2.0.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

RONI vs ONI are not important to me this year because both are well above the threshold for super on the daily index, and will be for the 3 month index eventually. 

for records, I only care about absolute SSTs. similar to how we measure record heatwaves based on setting the absolute temperature of say, 105 degrees, not the “record anomaly.” We are currently above record SSTs in the 3.4 region. 

 

 We agree that the absolute 3.4 temp has been blowing away its record since summer on OISST. But a portion of that difference from prior records is obviously due to the globe being near its warmest on record:

-Avg trop ocean warming since 1997 is ~0.6C. So, without any of that warming, 2026 OISST would still be warmer going back to Sep 1st. But the diff would be ~0.6 smaller.

-Avg warming since 1982 ~~0.8C. So, it would still be warmer than 82 w/o the GW since then but would be ~0.8 smaller diff.

-It has warmed ~0.3C since ‘15. So, even after taking into acct GW, it would still be blowing away ‘15.

-It is pulverizing ‘23 as that was a much weaker Nino at this point vs the other 3 and there’s been some GW since then.

-Also, keep in mind that cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been ~0.4 warmer than NOAA’s OISST the last 2 months. They used to be within ~0.1 apart on avg. I don’t know why, but it’s possible Alex’s OISST has been skewed a few tenths higher due to a bug for all I know.

-Even after taking into account both a possible bug in Alex’s graph and GW, ‘26 looks like it would still be at a record in 3.4.

[OSUmetstud]

NOAA Offical RONI ERSSTv6 released for September and JAS. 

2.08C and 1.69C

[GaWx]

 The NOAA ERSSTv6 Sep PDO was -0.74:

-As expected based on WCS, this was less negative than Aug’s -1.12

-This is the least neg Sep since 2019’s +0.44.

-2023 Sep was way down at -2.52!

-This is the 3rd month in a row that NOAA came in less negative than avg of WCS dailies, which was ~-1.0 in Sep

- The NOAA August PDO had come in at -1.12 vs the WCS avg of ~-1.55.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 We agree that the absolute 3.4 temp has been blowing away its record since summer on OISST. But a portion of that difference from prior records is obviously due to the globe being near its warmest on record:

-Avg trop ocean warming since 1997 is ~0.6C. So, without any of that warming, 2026 OISST would still be warmer going back to Sep 1st. But the diff would be ~0.6 smaller.

-Avg warming since 1982 ~~0.8C. So, it would still be warmer than 82 w/o the GW since then but would be ~0.8 smaller diff.

-It has warmed ~0.3C since ‘15. So, even after taking into acct GW, it would still be blowing away ‘15.

-It is pulverizing ‘23 as that was a much weaker Nino at this point vs the other 3 and there’s been some GW since then.

-Also, keep in mind that cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been ~0.4 warmer than NOAA’s OISST the last 2 months. They used to be within ~0.1 apart on avg. I don’t know why, but it’s possible Alex’s OISST has been skewed a few tenths higher due to a bug for all I know.

-Even after taking into account both a possible bug in Alex’s graph and GW, ‘26 looks like it would still be at a record in 3.4.

I mean yeah, we are setting temperature records more due to global warming. But when considering records, I don’t consider the anomaly at all, I only consider absolute records. 

For example, if it is 105 degrees, I don’t consider that it’s a “record” +15 anomaly. I only consider the absolute temperature of the daily, monthly, and all-time record and whether that is lower or higher than 105. If global warming makes it easier to reach that record, that is just reality. 

[EasternLI]

Luckily there are some other ways to view the strength of enso besides SST related metrics and those are pointing at a record event as well. Record WWB's, record shear for the Atlantic hurricane season, VP anomalies that make all the other years pale in comparison. The MEI could be another and I'll be curious to see that once it updates with Sept included plus future updates. RONI vs ONI is an interesting conversation but I think both are likely useful in their own ways. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Luckily there are some other ways to view the strength of enso besides SST related metrics and those are pointing at a record event as well. Record WWB's, record shear for the Atlantic hurricane season, VP anomalies that make all the other years pale in comparison. The MEI could be another and I'll be curious to see that once it updates with Sept included plus future updates. RONI vs ONI is an interesting conversation but I think both are likely useful in their own ways. 

Also the record summer -SOI 

[EasternLI]

Only one other year is remotely close to this year based purely on the VP200 charts. Similar story as a month ago. That one is 97-98, but this year is stronger...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Only one other year is remotely close to this year based purely on the VP200 charts. Similar story as a month ago. That one is 97-98, but this year is stronger...

 

PDO isn't close, though.

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO isn't close, though.

Yeah, not too sure how that ultimately plays into all of this either. Unique circumstances. 

[GaWx]

Sep OHC (keep in mind these aren’t relative) continues the record shattering of the prior 2 months with it at 3.38. The 2nd highest Sep is 2.38 (1997). Even if there were a relative version, it would still be a record.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

NOAA Offical RONI ERSSTv6 released for September and JAS. 

2.08C and 1.69C

These both came in slightly lower than 1997’s 2.15/1.84

[GaWx]

On 10/1/2026 at 1:16 AM, GaWx said:

Follow-up: As expected based on the model consensus having significantly warmer 2m maps on Sep 30th vs Sep 29th at 80N+, the DMI warmed notably yesterday (>1C) vs Sep 29th as it rose to the blue line (mean for 1958-2002). It should warm further tomorrow:

Follow-up: as expected per model progs, 80N+ warmed further since 9/30 with a total of a whopping 5C over just the last 4 days to solidly AN:

[raindancewx]

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally. The West is not as warm in those years as 2026 is forecast for October - that will be a good test to see if that grouping fails going forward.

PNA was primarily negative (as you'd expect looking at the maps) in Sept 2026.

-PNA in Sept is weakly negatively correlated in the NW for Oct - I.e. it 'should' be warm, east should be cold. For the West, the Cansips roughly matches the correlation map.

[raindancewx]

For Albuquerque, the 2026 September had the most "wet" (>0.1") days on record (8). The average is three.

El Ninos at >=5 wet days for Sept since 1931 are 1940, 1941, 1982, 1997, 2006. These are good winters - very wet, each with 12-28 inches of snow in the city.

The Jun-Sept period finished with 12 days over 0.1" - generally >=11 favors a good winter for snow in the city. Since ABQ just had its wettest month since Nov 1905, literally 120+ years ago, second wettest month since 1892, its probably worth looking at the 1905-06 El Nino too for precipitation nationally - but haven't had a chance yet.

June-Sept at ~5.96" is also rare for an El Nino. Only a handful of El Nino Summers are >5.0": 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018. 

1940-1941	0.0	9.2	0.5	0.9	0.5	2.0	T	0.0	13.1
1941-1942	0.0	0.4	2.0	2.1	3.0	7.1	T	0.0	14.6

1963-1964

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

8.2

1.3

T

0.0

10.0

1968-1969

0.0

0.0

7.4

0.9

1.8

5.5

0

0.0

14.7

1972-1973

0.0

2.9

1.2

9.5

1.8

13.9

8.1

0.0

37.4

1986-1987

3.2

0.6

0.2

4.9

4.9

0.2

2.2

0.0

16.2

1991-1992

2.5

1.5

2.1

5.6

0.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

12.7

1997-1998

0.9

1.1

8.8

0.2

1.0

0.9

0.4

0.0

12.4

2006-2007

0.0

0.2

20.8

2.2

4.7

0.0

0.9

0.0

27.9

2014-2015	0.0	0.0	1.2	4.2	9.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	15.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	7.2	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.8

2018-2019

0.0

0.0

3.3

2.0

4.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

9.5

Means:

Fall: Oct -0.6"   Nov - 1.3"

DJF: Dec - 4.5"  Jan - 2.9"  Feb - 3.2"

MAM: Mar -2.7"  Apr - 0.9" May - 0.0"

Total: 16.1" (100 year mean is ~9.6", 30 year mean is ~7.1")

The crazy bit with these El Ninos is the 12 seasons average ~9.0 inches of snow in the top month and no individual month in ABQ averages even three. So "wet monsoon" + El Nino is typically a good indication of at least one big snow month for the SW.

 

[bluewave]

October is showing overlapping influences compared to past El Nino climatology. The typical -EPO blocking ridge is displaced further south than usual into the Western US. This is a continuing theme from last spring with enhanced mid-latitude ridges. It’s developing a little more south of 2015 which would be the closest match. The North Pacific low looks displaced or stretched into a +WPO position. 

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

@bluewavewhere are you getting that second anomaly/significance chart from? 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

@bluewavewhere are you getting that second anomaly/significance chart from? 

JMA has a great site with many different ENSO composites.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

[OSUmetstud]

NOAA CORe showing (probably?) slightly below-normal temps in May, near-normal temps in June, and near-normal temps in July in the Arctic 80+N area. Contoured at 1F. Very difficult to get real surface temperature departures at all in this area at peak summer due to the cooling and stabilizing effect of the slushy ocean. 

 

[bluewave]

Subsurface warmth continuing to increase. Getting close to +12 now in spots. The +30C warm pool shifting further east is also a first.