2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.

 

They should if they are incorporating real-time data.

[OSUmetstud]

Congrats abq and houston

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Congrats abq and houston

 

Monthly T2 DJF

 

[mitchnick]

Monthly precip DJF

[OSUmetstud]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Monthly T2 DJF

 

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. 

Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Line up well:

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Monthly T2 DJF

 

A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F.

A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F.

I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.

I’d love this combination for the SE US!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, GaWx said:

I’d love this combination for the SE US!

1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.

[GaWx]

The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.06):