OSUmetstud Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Monthly T2 DJF I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way. Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Lines up well: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Monthly T2 DJF A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me. I’d love this combination for the SE US! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, GaWx said: I’d love this combination for the SE US! 1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, GaWx said: Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members): Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 28 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently. Significantly stronger vertical wind shear than 2015 and 1997. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 10 Author Share Posted September 10 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently. We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency? isn't that correlation only true during La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 11 Author Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: isn't that correlation only true during La Nina? Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11. I use it more for poleward Aleutian ridging in La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 9 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere? EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lines up well: Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts. See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 East-based composite versus Euro forecast: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence. That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho. Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well): Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8 How about region 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How about region 4? Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run: Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative) Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 PDO up to -.19 today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: PDO up to -.19 today. what's this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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