2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.

 

They should if they are incorporating real-time data.

[OSUmetstud]

Congrats abq and houston

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Congrats abq and houston

 

Monthly T2 DJF

 

[mitchnick]

Monthly precip DJF

[OSUmetstud]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Monthly T2 DJF

 

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way.