2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[George001]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.

Lots of snowfall where? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Lots of snowfall where? 

Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. 

The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though. 

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

What I realized is Adam is a bright young man, but he is severely mentally ill. When I realized that and got a handle of my own mental illness, I stopped hating him. I strongly believe Adams DMN (default mode network) is overactive, which is linked to increased rumination, self monitoring and various psychiatric conditions. Thats not good. I have a similar issue myself so I’m not judging him for this. I genuinely hope he gets better. He needs radical cutting edge experimental treatments to rewire his brain and dampen general DMN activity. I suspect he also struggles with lowered connectivity between distant brain areas within the DMN, and struggles to shut it off when switching from rest to active and demanding tasks. 
 

This specific configuration of DMN dysregulation in Adam’s brain leads to undesirable psychiatric symptoms like difficulty with perspective taking and inconsistent self reflection, intrusive self monitoring, poor working memory (since so much of his cognitive bandwidth is consumed by his obsessions), cognitive looping (restricted/repetitive posts about “snow weenies” on his X page), difficulty redirecting attention, and a tendency to drift inward. 
 

Psychiatric interventions for this suboptimal DMN configuration include psychedelic assisted therapy with ayahuasca or psilocybin, meditation, TMS, ketamine assisted therapy, or mindfulness based neurofeedback. Adam’s posts will not be missed by me either, but I hope he says fuck it and pursues radical treatment options to fundamentally rewire his brain rather than just learning to cope with symptoms. Traditional psychiatry likely will not work in this case, this presentation is consistent with more treatment resistant psychiatric conditions. A couple of the interventions for this are illegal, but if traditional psychiatry fails, stepping outside the law and taking matters into your own hands is justified. I’m not just saying this, I am pursuing several of the above interventions to fix my own brain, as my own DMN is overactive which has caused several undesirable psychiatric symptoms that did not respond to traditional meds and talk therapy. I hope Adam realizes the gravity of his situation like I did with mine, and takes the same steps.

Good job on identifying and addressing your issue! Hopefully he does the same.

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet. 

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

Definitely broad brushes it considering what has fallen imby, but it has me AN at least.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! 

If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2

[Wannabehippie]

41 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.

Snow everywhere, or just in the east?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Snow everywhere, or just in the east?

Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Definitely broad brushes it considering what has fallen imby, but it has me AN at least.

I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm? 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. 

The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though. 

This would be awesome. Blocking plus strong stj

 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm? 

I thought it was this year and was surprised it wasn't showing more than just a broad brush look.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I thought it was this year and was surprised it wasn't showing more than just a broad brush look.

Oh, ok. Fwiw, I kind of saw it coming. 

 

[GaWx]

 Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the month of Dec both times. It didn't happen lol

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years on a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for Dec both times. It didn't happen lol

 It’s very likely overdone, which is why I say it is more like a dream. But IF it were to actually have an inkling of what’s to come, we could be in store for an exciting or possibly even fab Feb. It is essentially going for another Feb of 1958, one of the greatest Febs on record in the E US and this with Feb RONI way up at +1.84! The CFS RONI prog for Feb ‘27 is for a rapid collapse down to +1.5. So, is it likely? No. But is it doable? Yes.
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there. 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

 

Yea we are still lacking quite a bit with the AAM into the northern hemisphere it just cuts off right 30N. So the Nino is thriving in the tropics to subtropics and the southern hemisphere but in the north it is struggling besides little bits and pieces that show up regionally.

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there. 

Thanks, Chuck. The quite cold E US Nino Febs I’m aware of are 2015, 2010, 2003, 1980, 1978, 1958, 1914, 1912, 1905, and 1885.

[so_whats_happening]

It is also very interesting to see the MJO just stuck in Phase 6 for nearly a month (with the forecast through the 25th).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Looking back at 97-98 we were null to even having a La Nina-esque lean to the MJO through summer, I get it less influential in the summer.

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

Unfortunately with the cuts to data I can not find reanalysis of VP to prior time periods to match with current times, since current times are not being updated.

[Nomz]

Hey y'all. Pretty new to long-range forecasting; had a couple random questions I couldn't get a good answer on:

When someone says a model is spitting out a peak of +4.5, for example, is that a single-day peak or a three-month average, as tracked by the NWS?

Are we generally discussing RONI or ONI, and which is more predictive? (Does it change with seasons?)

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Hey y'all. Pretty new to long-range forecasting; had a random question I couldn't get a good answer on:

When someone says a model is spitting out a peak of +4.5, for example, is that a single-day peak or a three-month average, as tracked by the NWS?

 

It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.