2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[George001]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.

Lots of snowfall where? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Lots of snowfall where? 

Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. 

The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though. 

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

What I realized is Adam is a bright young man, but he is severely mentally ill. When I realized that and got a handle of my own mental illness, I stopped hating him. I strongly believe Adams DMN (default mode network) is overactive, which is linked to increased rumination, self monitoring and various psychiatric conditions. Thats not good. I have a similar issue myself so I’m not judging him for this. I genuinely hope he gets better. He needs radical cutting edge experimental treatments to rewire his brain and dampen general DMN activity. I suspect he also struggles with lowered connectivity between distant brain areas within the DMN, and struggles to shut it off when switching from rest to active and demanding tasks. 
 

This specific configuration of DMN dysregulation in Adam’s brain leads to undesirable psychiatric symptoms like difficulty with perspective taking and inconsistent self reflection, intrusive self monitoring, poor working memory (since so much of his cognitive bandwidth is consumed by his obsessions), cognitive looping (restricted/repetitive posts about “snow weenies” on his X page), difficulty redirecting attention, and a tendency to drift inward. 
 

Psychiatric interventions for this suboptimal DMN configuration include psychedelic assisted therapy with ayahuasca or psilocybin, meditation, TMS, ketamine assisted therapy, or mindfulness based neurofeedback. Adam’s posts will not be missed by me either, but I hope he says fuck it and pursues radical treatment options to fundamentally rewire his brain rather than just learning to cope with symptoms. Traditional psychiatry likely will not work in this case, this presentation is consistent with more treatment resistant psychiatric conditions. A couple of the interventions for this are illegal, but if traditional psychiatry fails, stepping outside the law and taking matters into your own hands is justified. I’m not just saying this, I am pursuing several of the above interventions to fix my own brain, as my own DMN is overactive which has caused several undesirable psychiatric symptoms that did not respond to traditional meds and talk therapy. I hope Adam realizes the gravity of his situation like I did with mine, and takes the same steps.

Good job on identifying and addressing your issue! Hopefully he does the same.

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet. 

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

Definitely broad brushes it considering what has fallen imby, but it has me AN at least.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! 

If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2

[Wannabehippie]

41 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.

Snow everywhere, or just in the east?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Snow everywhere, or just in the east?

Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Definitely broad brushes it considering what has fallen imby, but it has me AN at least.

I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm? 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. 

The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though. 

This would be awesome. Blocking plus strong stj

 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm? 

I thought it was this year and was surprised it wasn't showing more than just a broad brush look.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I thought it was this year and was surprised it wasn't showing more than just a broad brush look.

Oh, ok. Fwiw, I kind of saw it coming. 

 

[GaWx]

 Due to the extreme cold anomalies progged by the CFSv2, look how cold the progged CFSv2 March ‘27 SST anomalies are off the E coast and in the N Gulf! Some areas are -5C/-9F even vs the slightly colder 1984-2009 climo!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for Dec both times. It didn't happen lol