2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account  Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.

yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. 

Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Getting more of an El Nino pattern, N. Pacific low at 216hr. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. 

 

 

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 

23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff. 

Same. Last time I had it out with him a few weeks ago there was an OT thread started and I suggested dialectical behavioral therapy to him...I was serious, too....I really think he'd benefit from it, as it would his interpersonal relationships. I don't intend it as some big insult, either....I've participated in it as a clinical and a patient and it's something the majority of us could benefit from.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol

He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still struggle with that, but have gotten better...it's just tough when you have a history of struggling to be receptive to alternative viewpoints and spend so much time and effort articulating your own thoughts....all of the investment, which is ostensibly a positive in that it's a vehicle for growth, tends to leave me more susceptible to undervaluing dissenting viewpoints. It's a balance between the understanding the that the incorporation of others' thoughts is ideal, and the instinct to be protective over an ideology that you have spent in an inordinately excessive amount of time and effort formulating.

That is the essence of DBT in a nutshell...utilizing the ability to balance the extremes in life to identify and correct maladaptive thought and behavioral patterns to improve intrapersonal relationships.

It's apparent on social media that many folks within weather circles could use a DBT course.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 

23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. 

 But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo. 

[annunciated]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account  Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.

i bet on that day he would make his responses just days later or even lurk with some emoticons on different posts...I was wrong, lol.

EDIT: Small banter, sorry!

[A-L-E-K]

free snowman#s

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, annunciated said:

i bet on that day he would make his responses just days later or even lurk with some emoticons on different posts...I was wrong, lol.

EDIT: Small banter, sorry!

Probably best for his mental health...I applaud the resolve to actually do it.