2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope!  Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there

^That's vs the 81-10 average. It's a really impressive cold shot being modeled

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Definitely done better with that past few years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

 I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there.

PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??

 Thanks, Ray.
 Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Ray.
 Based on model consensus and even after reducing the avg prog as a BC being that June model run avg has tended to verify too warm, especially Euro, I’m thinking RONI/ONI peaks will likely be at the higher end of your range or warmer. Models are leaning toward an OND peak.

I think it may be NDJ.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Your track record predicting long range forecasting is atrocious. How did your winter forecast turn out last winter ?

He has "forecasted" 1997-98 for you and looks forward to your suffering. Like i said. Easy as pie. He just goes warmest/least snowy outcome for the east. Without even looking at data that tells me 1997-1998 was the worst strong/super nino of the bunch for the east.

[GaWx]

The 80N+ record lows continue as of June 21st per the Euro site as none of the years 1958-2025 have the orange line below the dotted line like 2026 continues to have as of June 21st. The closest are near the dotted line such as 2014, 2013, 2009, 1997, 1995, and 1986. BN has occurred every day since May 10th with 2026 being the coldest on record for that period overall:

 This BN period has allowed the Arctic sea ice area to recover from record lows on May 11th to the 2013-24 avg for the last week:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wonder if Summer ridging at 90N is something that reverses long term, "evens out", like ENSO seems to do? We have been in a long, consistent cold period since 2016.

[bluewave]

On 6/20/2026 at 4:45 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. 

My guess with these seasonal models are that they are very simple tools that aren’t actually making a forecast. They are showing the correlations and filling in the temperatures to match.

These are the forecasts issued for DJF 2023-2024 made in August. Notice how it looks like the models are just cutting and pasting a correlation map for Nino 3.4 North American temperatures without much regard to this being a super El Niño or weak El Niño. 

I converted the verification below to °C to match the forecasts so everything lines up correctly. I also included the cooler 1981-2010 base period for the CanSIPS which the forecast was issued in.

 

 

 

Verification was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.

BINGO.

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess with these seasonal models are that they are very simple tools that aren’t actually making a forecast. They are showing the correlations and filling in the temperatures to match.

These are the forecasts issued for DJF 2023-2024 made in August. Notice how it looks like the models are just cutting and pasting a correlation map for Nino 3.4 North American temperatures without much regard to this being a super El Niño or weak El Niño. 

I converted the verification below to °C to match the forecasts so everything lines up correctly. I also included the cooler 1981-2010 base period for the CanSIPS which the forecast was issued in.

 

 

 

Verification was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My interpretation of the JMA and CANSIPS is that they are seeing something real, but are overemphasizing it. Regardless, it does bolster my confidence in a favorable period of Modoki like forcing during the second half. That said, I would agree with Snowman, and most, that we aren't getting a Modoki set up in the seasonal mean with an El Nino this strong.....I think that is what many register it as when those seasons are used as analogs and that should not be the case.

[FPizz]

15 hours ago, Cobalt said:

You’re really bold predicting that a Super El Niño in 2026 will be warmer than normal. I’m almost in shock, it takes a lot of guts to forecast something like that.

He stays unchanged no matter what, even after busting as big as you possibly could last winter while he was digging out from over 50" of snow when he averages 25".  

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

My progs were right this time:

                             1+2………3…….3.4…….4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        0.9        0.7        0.7
 10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7
 17JUN2026         2.4        1.3        1.1        0.8

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[LakePaste25]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here. 

It goes both ways. When some of us throw 97-98 into the mix, we aren’t saying the snow totals will repeat verbatim. Some of this is just random variability. 97-98 came extremely close to a producing KU’s a couple of times and could actually produce one if the general pattern repeated. So people shouldn’t freak out that their snow is being taken away when that year is mentioned. 

[BlizzardWx]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. 

This is a good point because it may well be pretty similar to what we end up doing in the N Pac this winter, with warm water east of Japan AND along the west coast. 

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. 

Yeah its a problem when we only want to use recent years as analogs yet all of those years are biased towards -PDO and +AMO. That won't work when we buck the trend. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It goes both ways. When some of us throw 97-98 into the mix, we aren’t saying the snow totals will repeat verbatim. Some of this is just random variability. 97-98 came extremely close to a producing KU’s a couple of times and could actually produce one if the general pattern repeated. So people shouldn’t freak out that their snow is being taken away when that year is mentioned. 

Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. 

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

WWB time:

 

 

 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era.

It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. 

Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds.

If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. 

Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. 

Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. 

It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern.

While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state. 
 

 

 Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:

[BlizzardWx]

My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. 

In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It goes both ways. When some of us throw 97-98 into the mix, we aren’t saying the snow totals will repeat verbatim. Some of this is just random variability. 97-98 came extremely close to a producing KU’s a couple of times and could actually produce one if the general pattern repeated. So people shouldn’t freak out that their snow is being taken away when that year is mentioned. 

I agree 100%. But actually, at least 1 in here IS implying the lowest snow totals will repeat.

Analogs are a tool like models. You could have everything align nearly identical to a previous year and the weather will never be replicated verbatim. 

Assuming winter is mild overall, there will likely be some significant Fall cold shots and early snows here in the lakes, that is a very common strong nino trait. 

[LakePaste25]

This morning it was in the 50s and was raining. Much more typical of what I’d expect for a pre-super Nino summer around here as 1972, 1982, and 1997 had a handful of these days in June and July. 

[George001]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly what I think of you. I typically don't name call though, something you do all the time to people in here.

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there.

I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. 

On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.
 

[snowman19]

That didn’t last long….SOI right back down to almost -20

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. 

In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards. 

2009-10 had close to a neutral PDO. I'd definitely sign up for it if this upcoming winter was a neutral to slightly positive PDO and a -NAO.

[LakePaste25]

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there.

I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. 

On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.
 

it’s why i always laugh when I see agencies such as AccuWeather or twitter accounts deterministically forecast seasonal snow totals in ENSO years like this. Above normal temps in the northeast and great lakes that fade towards neutral as you go south is a sure bet, but nobody can predict whether places like DCA will get a single storm that produces 150% of their seasonal totals.