2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:
 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

global ocean temps from previous super el nino were cooler then what is forecasted to be this year super el nino. the 82 one global ocean temps were much cooler then normal..

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

[snowman19]

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm.

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter 

1982 would actually be a best-case scenario assuming a super El Nino, and may be a favored outcome considering the recent flip to more -WPO in the northern Pacific. It was mild, but had essentially normal snowfall throughout the northeast. I don't mean like 2015, which was good in the mid Atlantic due to one storm, but still sucked in the northeast. 

[bluewave]

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Have you considered the possibility that it may never snow again south of Bridgeport, CT if we get another super El Nino?

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

"Best case "scenario as things stand right now is strong...worse case is SSSSUUUPPPEERRR which may obliterate winter in the east. Perhaps on the scale of winter 25-26 in the west.

And great point regarding the potential implications well beyond winter 26-27.

 

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have you considered the possibility that it may never snow again south of Bridgeport, CT if we get another super El Nino?

Not really sure yet what would happen to benchmark storm tracks following another rapid warming event so soon after 2023-2024. Would probably depend on the SST state across the rest of the ocean basins. The record early SSW back in November really got the ball rolling in the right direction this past winter.

Around NYC metro we have been in an all or nothing snowfall regime since the mid 1990s. So every year with a benchmark KU like this past winter has gone to at or above the long term average snowfall.

Very few 18-30” seasons anymore which were common from the 1960s to 1990s. Most years without a benchmark event like 22-23, 23-24, and 24-25 finished up with under 18” across multiple locations. 

Back in the 1840s to early 1870s a recently discovered excellent set of long term weather observations showed the average annual snowfall at Newark in the low 40s over a 30 year period. This gradually declined into the mid 20s by the early 1990s.

We had a big bounce back decade during the 2010s which was built on a record number of benchmark KU snowstorms. From 2019 to 2025 the benchmark track was largely absent so we had numerous very low snowfall years. 

This winter started out with an outstanding clipper pattern in December which pretty much maxed out the potential of what the Northern Stream could do if everything went just right. Then the Northern Stream finally relaxed for around 30 days from late January until late February. So only one month of relaxation yielded the record KU event in late February. 

March reverted to the dominant Northern Stream pattern which had resulted in the lowest March snowfall over 7 consecutive seasons around NYC Metro from 2020-2026. 

So taking the very long view has given us a steady decline since the 1840s in seasonal snowfall around NYC Metro with bounce back periods from time to time. 

No matter how warm this El Niño gets next winter, I will never give up hope for bounce back seasons and potential benchmark events from time to time. The big question is what type of interval of reoccurrence will we be looking at?

Warm winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 were proof of concept that we could get great benchmark storms even in a warm season. So it will just come down to having the benchmark tracks pushing back from time to time against the strong Northern Stream tendency we had since 2019. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

"Best case "scenario as things stand right now is strong...worse case is SSSSUUUPPPEERRR which may obliterate winter in the east. Perhaps on the scale of winter 25-26 in the west.

And great point regarding the potential implications well beyond winter 26-27.

 

Maybe in terms of temps, but I doubt in terms of snowfall. 1982, 1997 and 2015 all had one great storm.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

Thanks. So we can realistically say super nino winters were: 1877-78, 1888-89, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16.

None of these were fun winters, but some were certainly worse than others. Also, no surprise, each winter behaved differently with not just snowfall but more importantly temps. The worst snowfall of the lot (5th worst all-time) was 1965-66, but it was also the 3rd coldest of the lot, and the next worst snowfall (1957-58) was 2nd coldest.

Period of record avg snowfall for Detroit is 40.9". The best winters of the lot were 1972-73, 1877-78, 2015-16 and the worst 1965-66, 1957-58, 1982-83.

Of course, this is all just for kicks. I do not think we hit super nino.

1877-78: 43.4”
1888-89: 23.2”
1957-58: 18.0”
1965-66: 15.4”
1972-73: 45.0”
1982-83: 20.0”
1991-92: 43.2”
1997-98: 23.4”
2015-16: 35.3”
2023-24: 23.5”
 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not really sure yet what would happen to benchmark storm tracks following another rapid warming event so soon after 2023-2024. Would probably depend on the SST state across the rest of the ocean basins. The record early SSW back in November really got the ball rolling in the right direction this past winter.

Around NYC metro we have been in an all or nothing snowfall regime since the mid 1990s. So every year with a benchmark KU like this past winter has gone to at or above the long term average snowfall.

Very few 18-30” seasons anymore which were common from the 1960s to 1990s. Most years without a benchmark event like 22-23, 23-24, and 24-25 finished up with under 18” across multiple locations. 

Back in the 1840s to early 1870s a recently discovered excellent set of long term weather observations showed the average annual snowfall at Newark in the low 40s over a 30 year period. This gradually declined into the mid 20s by the early 1990s.

We had a big bounce back decade during the 2010s which was built on a record number of benchmark KU snowstorms. From 2019 to 2025 the benchmark track was largely absent so we had numerous very low snowfall years. 

This winter started out with an outstanding clipper pattern in December which pretty much maxed out the potential of what the Northern Stream could do if everything went just right. Then the Northern Stream finally relaxed for around 30 days from late January until late February. So only one month of relaxation yielded the record KU event in late February. 

March reverted to the dominant Northern Stream pattern which had resulted in the lowest March snowfall over 7 consecutive seasons around NYC Metro from 2020-2026. 

So taking the very long view has given us a steady decline since the 1840s in seasonal snowfall around NYC Metro with bounce back periods from time to time. 

No matter how warm this El Niño gets next winter, I will never give up hope for bounce back seasons and potential benchmark events from time to time. The big question is what type of interval of reoccurrence will we be looking at?

Warm winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 were proof of concept that we could get great benchmark storms even in a warm season. So it will just come down to having the benchmark tracks pushing back from time to time against the strong Northern Stream tendency we had since 2019. 

 

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s).

Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters.

NYC avg snow 

1840s-60s: 42” 
1870s- 32.9”
1880s- 32.6”
1890s- 36.3”
1900s- 28.4”
1910s- 30.2”
1920s- 29.5”
1930s- 24.5”
1940s- 32.9”
1950s- 19.9”
1960s- 32.0”
1970s- 22.5”
1980s- 19.7”
1990s- 24.4”
2000s- 28.0”
2010s- 37.9”
2020s- 18.2” so far
 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

"Best case "scenario as things stand right now is strong...worse case is SSSSUUUPPPEERRR which may obliterate winter in the east. Perhaps on the scale of winter 25-26 in the west.

And great point regarding the potential implications well beyond winter 26-27.

 

Lmao. That is ridiculous to say in April that the best case for the following winter is strong. That makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, and its not even close. Its going to be hilarious to see this thread if it doesnt even hit strong. The biggest surprise imo will be if it actually IS a "SSSSUUUUPPPPEEEERRRR" super nino, you just dont get supers that close. Itll be even funnier if the eastern troughing pattern continues or at the very least a 3rd year in a row where the winter turns out much colder in the east than the wishing of some here.

[Great Snow 1717]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. That is ridiculous to say in April that the best case for the following winter is strong. That makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, and its not even close. Its going to be hilarious to see this thread if it doesnt even hit strong. The biggest surprise imo will be if it actually IS a "SSSSUUUUPPPPEEEERRRR" super nino, you just dont get supers that close. Itll be even funnier if the eastern troughing pattern continues or at the very least a 3rd year in a row where the winter turns out much colder in the east than the wishing of some here.

Did you miss or simply ignore the .."as things  stand  right now"....part of my post?,

Keep in mind the weather records that are available are a mere blip on the radar screen..there is no way of knowing how many super Ninos have  actually occurred because weather records arent available beyond a certain point.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier.

This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period.

With  the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

 

The desert SW is obviously the fastest warming region and we see it year in and year out. Its going to continue to warm the conus mean no matter what happens elsewhere. A cold winter in the east (in fact, DCs coldest winter in 30 years) and all we hear on an east-heavy forum is "conus conus conus". Well, the conus mean temp rising really doesnt mean a damn to people who live in the north and get frozen or buried in the winter. Many northern cities temp rise from 1896-2026 is 0F to +3F, yet the desert SW, Tuscon is +4.9F and Phoenix is +6.5F. What a marvelous idea to urbanize a desert.  

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Did you miss or simply ignore the .."as things  stand  right now"....part of my post?,

Keep in mind the weather records that are available are a mere blip on the radar screen..there is no way of knowing how many super Ninos have  actually occurred because weather records arent available beyond a certain point.

I read it. It just seems like a weird way to word it. "as things stand right now worst case...". Thats like saying day 14 on the GFS looks stormy so as things stand right now, best case we get showers, worst case it floods. And then when day 14 becomes day 0 and its dry, cant say you misspoke, but it wasnt anything close the expected scenarios 2 weeks earlier.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I read it. It just seems like a weird way to word it. "as things stand right now worst case...". Thats like saying day 14 on the GFS looks stormy so as things stand right now, best case we get showers, worst case it floods. And then when day 14 becomes day 0 and its dry, cant say you misspoke, but it wasnt anything close the expected scenarios 2 weeks earlier.

People making calls for this winter this early is ridiculous. Look how winter forecasts from months in advance have turned out in recent years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s).

Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters.

NYC avg snow 

1840s-60s: 42” 
1870s- 32.9”
1880s- 32.6”
1890s- 36.3”
1900s- 28.4”
1910s- 30.2”
1920s- 29.5”
1930s- 24.5”
1940s- 32.9”
1950s- 19.9”
1960s- 32.0”
1970s- 22.5”
1980s- 19.7”
1990s- 24.4”
2000s- 28.0”
2010s- 37.9”
2020s- 18.2” so far
 

I was, but appreciated his thoughtful response, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s).

Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters.

NYC avg snow 

1840s-60s: 42” 
1870s- 32.9”
1880s- 32.6”
1890s- 36.3”
1900s- 28.4”
1910s- 30.2”
1920s- 29.5”
1930s- 24.5”
1940s- 32.9”
1950s- 19.9”
1960s- 32.0”
1970s- 22.5”
1980s- 19.7”
1990s- 24.4”
2000s- 28.0”
2010s- 37.9”
2020s- 18.2” so far
 

This is a warmer version of the 1950s and 1980s, though hemispherically speaking, it's more akin to the 1950s...so instead of 19.9" or 19.7, NYC has averaged 18.2 this decade.
 o

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks. So we can realistically say super nino winters were: 1877-78, 1888-89, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16.

 Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

[Great Snow 1717]

58 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I read it. It just seems like a weird way to word it. "as things stand right now worst case...". Thats like saying day 14 on the GFS looks stormy so as things stand right now, best case we get showers, worst case it floods. And then when day 14 becomes day 0 and its dry, cant say you misspoke, but it wasnt anything close the expected scenarios 2 weeks earlier.

In other words there is still time for things to change in one direction or the other...

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a warmer version of the 1950s and 1980s, though hemispherically speaking, it's more akin to the 1950s...so instead of 19.9" or 19.7, NYC has averaged 18.2 this decade.
 o

Interesting...coming  off of the snowy 2010s where Detroit averaged 49.4" (snowiest decade on record), the 2020s so far averaged 37.8". This is very close to the 1950s 37.4".

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, that’s what I have. I find it amazing that there were none for the 68 winters between 1888-9 and 1957-8. I wonder whether or not this is random, especially considering there were 7 over the subsequent 68 winters 1957-8 through 2024-5!

Im sure its random. After all, enso is just one piece of the puzzle. But the 1890-1957 timeframe still had plenty of up and down winters. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s).

Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters.

NYC avg snow 

1840s-60s: 42” 
1870s- 32.9”
1880s- 32.6”
1890s- 36.3”
1900s- 28.4”
1910s- 30.2”
1920s- 29.5”
1930s- 24.5”
1940s- 32.9”
1950s- 19.9”
1960s- 32.0”
1970s- 22.5”
1980s- 19.7”
1990s- 24.4”
2000s- 28.0”
2010s- 37.9”
2020s- 18.2” so far
 

What motive would they have to lie about how much snow fell? Newark is not the same climate as Detroit. It could have been colder and drier in Detroit than present.

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol.

Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s).

Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters.

NYC avg snow 

1840s-60s: 42” 
1870s- 32.9”
1880s- 32.6”
1890s- 36.3”
1900s- 28.4”
1910s- 30.2”
1920s- 29.5”
1930s- 24.5”
1940s- 32.9”
1950s- 19.9”
1960s- 32.0”
1970s- 22.5”
1980s- 19.7”
1990s- 24.4”
2000s- 28.0”
2010s- 37.9”
2020s- 18.2” so far
 

2020's here, like 30 miles away from Newark, is 29.2.  2010s I was 35.9, so Newark did better.  They have had some bad luck this decade with snow cutoffs.  1840s-60s is mostly nonsense.  

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What motive would they have to lie about how much snow fell? Newark is not the same climate as Detroit. It could have been colder and drier in Detroit than present.

it is the accuracy of the record keeping from back then.  It isn't a lie, but most likely not accurate.  It could have even been more snow, but I'd question it no matter what.