2026-2027 El Nino

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This isn't the end of the March weather story:

 

While Phoenix may be approaching or even reaching 100° on one or more days shortly after mid-month, a fairly sharp shot of cold is likely from the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast during March 15-20. Detroit may see the low temperature fall into the teens on one or more days. New York City could see low to mid 20s. Without blocking, the cold probably won't be sustained for too long, but that doesn't necessarily mean things will torch afterward. The highest probability for a continuation of warmth is in the Southwest on account of a largely "stuck" pattern.

Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer.

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer.

Canada looks to stay very cold so the northern part of the country could definitely see some brief extremes both ways but probably no warmth or cold for an extended period of time unless blocking develops. 

[MJO812]

West stays warm while the east gets cooler.

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Canada looks to stay very cold so the northern part of the country could definitely see some brief extremes both ways but probably no warmth or cold for an extended period of time unless blocking develops. 

Hence why I say eastward, though I do expect some northward expansion of the ridge too. A lot of it will depend on how much existing snow cover there ends up being in the northern regions.

[cmillzz]

Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer.

[roardog]

42 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer.

You obviously can’t expect details on a 270 hour model op run to be exactly correct. I mean you would flip out if someone posted a 270 hour op run showing a snowstorm hitting Milwaukee expecting it to be correct. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Wow that Southwest, US heat ridge is strong on the 12z EPS. Phoenix beating their old DJF Temp record by +1.8F is phenomenal (#1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #20 - donsutherland stats). There might be a significant record set there in March, as well. 

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow that Southwest, US heat ridge is strong on the 12z EPS. Phoenix beating their old DJF Temp record by +1.8F is phenomenal (#1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #20 - donsutherland stats). There might be a significant record set there in March, as well. 

Multiple 100+ readings in Phoenix likely this March...that's nuts. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I noticed this pattern last Winter, which we had never really seen before. Then of course the extreme's that followed this year

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, cmillzz said:

The only cold period is the 3/16-3/19 period, then warms up significantly afterwards. Would expect warmer trends in the coming days as the models have a tendency to erroneously hold on to the cold for longer than it should when there’s such a vast lack of high-latitude blocking. As I said before and will say again, meteorology > modelology. Funny thing is it’s already been a blowtorch for virtually the entire CONUS 

Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. 

Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. 

Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct.

Nov: -0.4°

Dec: -3.6°

Jan: -5.2°

Feb: -0.2°

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. 

Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. 

Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct.

Nov: -0.4°

Dec: -3.6°

Jan: -5.2°

Feb: -0.2°

The cold has won the battles and will continue from the Midwest to northeast after this mild spell.

[cmillzz]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The cold has won the battles and will continue from the Midwest to northeast after this mild spell.

brrr

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. 

Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. 

Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct.

Nov: -0.4°

Dec: -3.6°

Jan: -5.2°

Feb: -0.2°

Idk about the east, but Chicago having its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record is hardly "wishcasting". Don't really care about the weather anywhere else tbh, it's been very mild (and dry, up until this past week) here since mid Feb. Besides, you'll be torching for a few days this upcoming week too, so idk why you'd be skeptical of another torch brewing later on in an even more favorable pattern for sustained warmth + later in the year with a rising sun angle.

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. 

Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. 

Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct.

Nov: -0.4°

Dec: -3.6°

Jan: -5.2°

Feb: -0.2°

Oh, yeah, may just be confined to the 18th LOL. All snow threats confined to your north as well.

[TheClimateChanger]

12 hours ago, cmillzz said:

brrr

If this is cold "winning" the battle, I'd hate to see the alternative.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[GaWx]

A good number of the last posts here would imho better belong in the 25-26 thread instead of 26-27. Isn’t March of ‘26 part of 25-26? And then the last post was about DJF 25-6.