2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here comes the warmer subsurface (20c Isotherm Depth), leading the surface by several months, like usual

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

[Terpeast]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

Why would it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Why would it?

I've read things linking the two. 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've read things linking the two. 

I have a hard time envisioning the physics that link a SSW to a subsequent el nino (or la nina). I imagine the top-down effects would be confined mainly to the polar domain or mid latitudes, but not tropics. Conversely, enso is driven mainly by tropical ocean-atmosphere (KWs and WWBs mostly) and then those forcing effects propagate to mid- and polar-latitudes via rossby waves, and then bottom-up into the stratosphere. But the other way around? I dunno. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here we go.. Gawx posted this in the other thread. CFS AAM projection:

The Winter kind of lags previous years ENSO state up until March, but in April New ENSO pattern has greatest N. Pacific correlation (-NOI/-NPH). Notice minor North Pacific difference in March, but major differences in April

[mitchnick]

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.

New Cansips pretty sweet for next year. This is a link to December, 2026. Scrolling thru to February shows lots of blocking.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to SSTA map starting December. Looks solid moderate Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to surface temps starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to precip starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.

New Cansips pretty sweet for next year. This is a link to December, 2026. Scrolling thru to February shows lots of blocking.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to SSTA map starting December. Looks solid moderate Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to surface temps starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to precip starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place.

 Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place.

 Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

I’d say that Jan 26 forecast verified well overall, except it was too warm for the SE. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wonder if CANSIPS has consistency bias? I know I think @GaWx was showing how they had SSTA anomalies for the same month year after year.