Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you think I'll get that dry shaft in CT? Curious what you think 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Poundtown!  1/8" per hour, at least!

[NECT]

A band of mood snow has been around here for close to 4 hours. Solid coating.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you have a forecast for SNE? Curious what you think 

Prob good for 2-4” eastern CT, 1-3” western (the higher side prob being Litchfield county)….might go a little higher near Ginxy and towns near RI. ORH to BOS is 3-6” but obviously someone is gonna get a surprise. Favoring Essex county and then maybe someone down near S RI. Might have to watch south shore too. It’s a really difficult forecast….inverted trough/Norluns probably have the largest bust potential of any snow event as forecasters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the NAMs are just to my west now as opposed to just to my east the last couple of runs.

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I was pretty sick myself looking at it .. coating to 1” for most of CT, while all of EMASS gets 4-8”+.. enjoy out east you got your mojo back on Jan 25th. 

I know what CoastalWx is thinking now w/ the 00z HRRR -- March 8-9, 2013!  Not quite the 600 mi SE of ACK the sfc low was then, but it still 300 mi!  30" at MQE in the 2013 event.  One of biggest modern day fcst busts here for snow!

The 500 low elongation axis is now just W of the region, and the low cuts off a decent distance S of LI on some models.  So a weenie pseudo "backlash" OES combo appears likely.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the NAMs are just to my west now as opposed to just to my east the last couple of runs.

Not the worst spot to be before an IVT/norlun…playing naked twister with the max interior banding. 
 

But obviously these are fickle so you gotta keep expectations low. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob good for 2-4” eastern CT, 1-3” western (the higher side prob being Litchfield county)….might go a little higher near Ginxy and towns near RI. ORH to BOS is 3-6” but obviously someone is gonna get a surprise. Favoring Essex county and then maybe someone down near S RI. Might have to watch south shore too. It’s a really difficult forecast….inverted trough/Norluns probably have the largest bust potential of any snow event as forecasters. 

Yeah was thinking 3-6 here. Hate that range but definitely uncertainty there.

[Hoth]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think all of us in CT are out in this one ….an inch maybe two for you, and then we watch Boston and SE Mass clean up this go around unfortunately.  

Meh, what else is new.

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah was thinking 3-6 here. Hate that range but definitely uncertainty there.

"I WANT MORE!!!!"  LOL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the worst spot to be before an IVT/norlun…playing naked twister with the max interior banding. 
 

But obviously these are fickle so you gotta keep expectations low. 

Nah, no JP fetish here....I am good with 2". Just planning on a refresher, and anything else is gravy.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah was thinking 3-6 here. Hate that range but definitely uncertainty there.

These are the types of events you really need the large ranges. So much bust potential. These soundings are no joke for whoever gets stuck under some lift. It’s not like a marginal temp sounding with an inversion lower down in the atmosphere…this is lift-off if you can get a little forcing with the max omega cutting through the heart of the DGZ. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Meh, what else is new.

Well to be fair…we’ve been kicking SE Mass’s ass the last few years. Just back on 12/26 we jacked here too. 2/2024 we got 13” and they got almost nothing. December of 2020 they got boned bad too, and we crushed it.  So it’s been a bad run for them…so let them have this one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are the types of events you really need the large ranges. So much bust potential. These soundings are no joke for whoever gets stuck under some lift. It’s not like a marginal temp sounding with an inversion lower down in the atmosphere…this is lift-off if you can get a little forcing with the max omega cutting through the heart of the DGZ. 

I'm like a caveman with soundings, so I use the archaic Coolwx.com site, but even on that it was obvious how elite the OMEGA profile was for KLWM, KBOS and KBEV.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Meh, what else is new.

Must…bitch…more in 2027.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are the types of events you really need the large ranges. So much bust potential. These soundings are no joke for whoever gets stuck under some lift. It’s not like a marginal temp sounding with an inversion lower down in the atmosphere…this is lift-off if you can get a little forcing with the max omega cutting through the heart of the DGZ. 

Yeah for sure. Some of those progs have a meso low feature pinwheeling down too. It’s gonna rip where that moves through. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Meh, what else is new.

CT has been on a heater this year lol. People forget 12/26-27

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

"I WANT MORE!!!!"  LOL.

Does CoastalWx ever get enough?!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CT has been on a heater this year lol. People forget 12/26-27

We don’t forget this:

[TalcottWx]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I think he will 

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm like a caveman with soundings, so I use the archaic Coolwx.com site, but even on that it was obvious how elite the OMEGA profile was for KLWM, KBOS and KBEV.

 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair…we’ve been kicking SE Mass’s ass the last few years. Just back on 12/26 we jacked here too. 2/2024 we got 13” and they got almost nothing. December of 2020 they got boned bad too, and we crushed it.  So it’s been a bad run for them…so let them have this one. 

Really? I've barely scraped together double digits for three years until this year.

 

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CT has been on a heater this year lol. People forget 12/26-27

How many 20"+ events have you had this decade?

[Ginx snewx]

New HRRR is delicious here.  Multiple TT soundings with 50

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CT has been on a heater this year lol. People forget 12/26-27

Exactly. You’re absolutely correct. So you guys Enjoy this one. 

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Must…bitch…more in 2027.

LOL, I'm working on it now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Really? I've barely scraped together double digits for three years until this year.

 

How many 20"+ events have you had this decade?

They are both drunk.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Really? I've barely scraped together double digits for three years until this year.

 

How many 20"+ events have you had this decade?

Well I’m speaking of inland here…so ya, we’ve been killing them. But if they get this crushing..we call it even. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nobody in CT has been killing sema over the past couple winters lol

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/snowfall-maps/sne-snowfall-maps

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They are both drunk.

Nope. Feb of 2021 12-18 here, boned there. Feb 13 2024 12-16 here, zero there. December 26 2025 8-9” half the amount there. Enough said.  2023-24 season snowfall double here to what they got. So they’ve had a tough go the last few years..worse than us. 

[CoastalWx]

December 2020 was good here.