Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

[GBOVolz]

Got a snow shadow a few minutes ago for @Holston_River_Rambler is I believe who mentioned pics before.




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[John1122]

Sitting at 5 as midnight approaches. Big full moon and snow makes it look practically like dawn outside instead of midnight. 

 

[Jed33]

It’s currently 1° at the house, and I’m on a hill above the lake. Most certainly is below zero around the sheltered valleys. I also see TRI is reporting -6° Wow! MRX issued a cold weather advisory for just the temperatures as they said they didn’t expect it to get this cold. As others have said, it’s the power of a healthy snowpack. It will do it every time.

[Math/Met]

-5F this morning.

[Windspeed]

I think KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I see a -15 between Jonesborough and Johnson City:

 

Shady Valley looks like the winner:

I know the Wunderground map isn't the be all, end all, but I could only find a couple of places on that network, on the whole planet (in rural Quebec), that were colder this AM. 

[IndTenn]

0 at my house in the warmest microclimate around Kingsport.  It probably hasn't been this cold here since 2014 or 2015, when the camellias were defoliated.

[IndTenn]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I see a -15 between Jonesborough and Johnson City:

 

Shady Valley looks like the winner:

I know the Wunderground map isn't the be all, end all, but I could only find a couple of places on that network, on the whole planet (in rural Quebec), that were colder this AM. 

I don't know what the wind direction was last night, but of note are those warmer readings south of Fall Branch, in what would be the downslope off Chimney Top.

[BlunderStorm]

Wow, I bottomed out at -9.7F with areas in town a few degrees lower per wunderground. I took a quick drive to run an errand and took a few pics at the Clinch river and it was -14 on the car thermometer in Rosedale. For SWVA it looks like the winner was Tazewell which bottomed out at -18F!! in some valleys. (still in the Tennessee Valley ) 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history.  The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB.  When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, BlunderStorm said:

Wow, I bottomed out at -9.7F with areas in town a couple degrees lower. I took a quick drive to run an errand and took a few pics at the Clinch river. For SWVA it looks like the winner was Tazewell which bottomed out at -18F!! in some valleys. (still in the Tennessee Valley ) 

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

[tnweathernut]

12 hours ago, John1122 said:

Some social media response to that terrible map.  This is why snowfall averages are off and it effects weather model performance. 

 

 

 

 

With spotters and accumulations being posted from a lot of different places, it makes you wonder how snow maps in the year 2026 are off that much.  Sure, I get the guy who measures a drift to inflate, but that goes both ways.  It's just as much an error when you post "official" measurements off by a factor of 2x or 3x also.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Got a quick gif of some lake effect clouds/ fog coming off Cherokee and Douglas Lakes overnight. I rock it back and forth to hopefully make it easier to see. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

13 hours ago, John1122 said:

I also feel like Holston got more than 1/10th of an inch as well. 

Sorry I'm just now seeing the map this am. I still have more than that after a day of sunshine, compaction, and sublimation lol

[Jed33]

26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Got a quick gif of some lake effect clouds/ fog coming off Cherokee and Douglas Lakes overnight. I rock it back and forth to hopefully make it easier to see. 

 

This was the view from my neighbor’s house earlier this morning. Overlooking Cherokee Lake. For reference I’m at the corner of Hamblen, Hawkins, and Grainger Co. Ice is beginning to form in spots on the lake. I’ve only seen that 1 or 2 times since we’ve lived here. An impressive airmass for sure!

[Icy Hot]

So Google says this is Hoarfrost, not to be confused with Rime Ice. Either way, it is so cool to look at!

[dwagner88]

I got down to 12 and then shot up to 25 already. 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Jed33 said:

It’s currently 1° at the house, and I’m on a hill above the lake. Most certainly is below zero around the sheltered valleys. I also see TRI is reporting -6° Wow! MRX issued a cold weather advisory for just the temperatures as they said they didn’t expect it to get this cold. As others have said, it’s the power of a healthy snowpack. It will do it every time.

Most times they go with what Model Data is printing out like many do anymore. It caused them to miss by a large margin in much of the Area. Sometimes you gotta use logic and incorporate Human Input.

    Not downing them or the Other's as it's just the way things have become nowadays, sadly.

    Until Model's get (if it's really completely possible) more micro precise , if you will, without the Forecasters skilled Input it will remain the same.

[GBOVolz]

Maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but was it supposed to get down to close to zero last night? I guess I was suffering from a little bit of weather overload so I have it looked at anything in a couple days.


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[John1122]

I ended up at -5.5 on a forecasted low of 11.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media.  David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight.  Two records in one night....

[Carvers Gap]

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February.  2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps).  2015 holds the other.  A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

[Carvers Gap]

30 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but was it supposed to get down to close to zero last night? I guess I was suffering from a little bit of weather overload so I have it looked at anything in a couple days.


.

Nope.  Major temp bust.  0 was my forecast low.  Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear.  Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

[Hillbilly]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February.  2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps).  2015 holds the other.  A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

It looks like the webmaster at the NWS has some updates to make after yesterday and today!!!

  TRI-CITIES TN
                            DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS
                                    FEBRUARY

      MAX   MIN   AVG   HDD   CDD    PCPN    REC HIGH     REC LOW     REC PCPN

 1     48    27    37    28     0    0.13    70  1988     4  1980    1.56 1985
 2     48    27    37    28     0    0.13    71  1989     0  1971    1.22 1974
 3     48    27    38    27     0    0.13    74  1989    -4  1965    1.28 2022
 4     48    27    38    27     0    0.13    71  2025    -9  1996    1.76 1943
 5     49    27    38    27     0    0.13    71  2008   -15  1996    1.43 2020

 6     49    28    38    27     0    0.13    73  2025     0  1996    2.60 2020
 7     49    28    38    27     0    0.13    76  2019     0  1978    0.97 2018
 8     49    28    38    26     0    0.13    73  2025     6  1984    0.62 2017
 9     49    28    39    26     0    0.13    72  2023     1  1995    2.48 1994
 10    50    28    39    26     0    0.14    73  1939     1  1979    1.66 1946

 11    50    28    39    26     0    0.13    76  1965     4  1955    1.42 2018
 12    50    29    39    26     0    0.14    74  2017    -1  1981    1.58 2023
 13    50    29    40    25     0    0.13    72  1961    -2  1955    1.62 1991
 14    51    29    40    25     0    0.14    75  1950     3  1971    1.09 1946
 15    51    29    40    25     0    0.14    76  1954     1  1960    1.26 1964

 16    51    29    40    25     0    0.14    72  2023     3  1958    1.44 1990
 17    51    30    40    24     0    0.15    72  2022    -3  1958    1.75 1944
 18    52    30    41    24     0    0.14    70  1948    -5  1958    1.31 1991
 19    52    30    41    24     0    0.15    78  1939    -5  1958    0.95 1999
 20    52    30    41    24     0    0.14    79  2018   -13  2015    1.06 1967

 21    53    31    42    24     0    0.14    82  2018     7  1958    0.96 1993
 22    53    31    42    23     0    0.14    80  2018     3  1963    1.85 2003
 23    53    31    42    23     0    0.14    80  2018     6  1978    1.83 2019
 24    53    31    42    23     0    0.13    77  2017     4  1967    1.53 2022
 25    54    31    42    22     0    0.14    74  2000    -1  1967    1.78 1961

 26    54    32    43    22     0    0.14    80  1977     4  1967    1.14 1958
 27    54    32    43    22     0    0.13    74  1996     2  1963    1.02 1987
 28    55    32    43    22     0    0.14    76  2021    12  1947    1.68 2011
 29    55    32    43    22     0    0.14    74  1976    13  1964    0.63 1952

 MO   50.9  29.2    40  699     0    3.81    82  2018   -15  1996    2.60 2020

[nrgjeff]

Few flurries in Chattanooga Sunday evening. I did a double take.

Hoarfrost is as beautiful as ice, with zero impacts. Winner!

The moonlight pix? Those have 99% solar eclipse vibes. Only 19 more years!

[1234snow]

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February.  2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps).  2015 holds the other.  A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Welp this will help the February monthly departures lol.

[Silas Lang]

I took a peak at the HRRR, NAM, and RGEM last night before bed. NAM had Knoxville at a low of 14 or 15, HRRR at 11, and RGEM around zero. Thought it would be interesting to see how the short range are handling the cold air. 

My thermometer got down to 6 here. So not quite as cold as the RGEM showed, but it seems to be doing good with correctly modeling the depth of cold. 

[John1122]

Temp has only made it to 25 with all the clouds around. Forecast was 37.

[IndTenn]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Temp has only made it to 25 with all the clouds around. Forecast was 37.

Here near the bottom of the valley, it just reached 20.  Going to bust the forecast by 15 degrees.