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Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.


John1122
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Not a huge fan of the radar right now. Snow has basically stopped in my neck of the woods.

Some of this is below the radar, especially as we go through the night when the DGZ lowers.


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This was always going to be a slow burn for everyone. It's snowed for almost 6 hours here to get 2.5 inches and I'm over performing what I expected. It's going to be a duration event more than a huge burst event. Further east may get the burst. But for most it's more that it's going to be really cold and average probably 1/4th to 1/2 inch an hour for 10 to 16 more hours. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

This was always going to be a slow burn for everyone. It's snowed for almost 6 hours here to get 2.5 inches and I'm over performing what I expected. It's going to be a duration event more than a huge burst event. Further east may get the burst. But for most it's more that it's going to be really cold and average probably 1/4th to 1/2 inch an hour for 10 to 16 more hours. 

Yep and I love heavy snow, but I'm also never opposed to a long duration lighter snowfall either.

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We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

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We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

I didn’t think the “heavy” stuff was suppose to start until after 2 am or so.


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Yes light snow has been falling in East Brainerd, Chattanooga probably for 30 min or more per other in-town and 'burbs reports. I was watching the Michigan and MSU game. Half-time is check floodlight out window time!

Thank you Signal Mountain crew for the earlier reports. Now we just settle in. This system radar and ground truth might have lower than usual correlations. Flakes growing in EB but yeah I think this is just an initial snow band.

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We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

Still have another 10 or so hours to go.


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5 minutes ago, bearman said:

We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

The ULL snows haven't begun yet, this was just bonus snow from the frontal passage.  I expect several hour lull, with just flurries.

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15 minutes ago, bearman said:

We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

What is your total right now? I just measured about an inch here near Fountain City. 

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2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

What is your total right now? I just measured about an inch here near Fountain City. 

I have a little over a quarter of an Inch.  Most of that came down very early, just shortly after dark.  It has been snowing without stopping very very lightly with tiny flakes.

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I do think the best lift comes in around midnight or just after for TRI and holds for a few hours.  Though to be sure, empty or meh radars leave me depending in total faith on modeling and a concern this lacks some energy which was modeled.  Let’s see where the 0z models go.  I think they turn downward west of 81.  If not, we could be in good shape. 

IMBY, this was scheduled to start around 2:00PM and run until Sunday early.  It started around 1:00PM.  To my surprise, it didn’t stick until the sun went down.  And according to the WSW, rush hour could have been bad.  Fortunately and thankfully, that didn’t happen.

So at this point we wait.  I continue to say the usual NW slope winners of the past…will be winners now.  The cold front “should” get everyone to 2-3” outside of Chatty…and I never venture a guess there.  To get higher totals, we are gonna need more energy building back as modeled or have an elevation advantage.  
 

Like John said…slow burn.  IMBY…very slow burn.  But let’s see…this is a cold storm and that is a not so common occurrence.  There will be surprises almost assuredly - Captain Obvious.

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