Is we back? February discussion thread

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

lol just saying what it has. Notice after hr 120 there was no comment from him. 
 

It’s close enough on guidance to certainly entertain. But right now consensus is offshore or a graze. Plenty of time for moves though.

I was busy and still brushes.. AIGFS was wild..  had a dusting this morning 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Philly wiped off the map by AIGFS, I'm headed to their forum for the entertainment value.

Philly got nothing on SNE 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, 3 systems? I'm overwhelmed with blog overload. I haven't experienced this since...oh, IDK....March 2018??

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, 3 systems? I'm overwhelmed with blog overload. I haven't experienced this since...oh, IDK....March 2018??

Those were 3 biggies though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those were 3 biggies though. 

Not sure how that invalidates the analog.....potential light-moderate-major trifecta is close enough for me.

[ineedsnow]

6z EPS improved 

[dendrite]

Just need to track it over the canal now

[40/70 Benchmark]

First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.

[Chrisrotary12]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.

Certainly going to be close for folks like you and me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Certainly going to be close for folks like you and me.

You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Certainly going to be close for folks like you and me.

You guys should be good for a few I think 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just need to track it over the canal now

Nah

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure how that invalidates the analog.....potential light-moderate-major trifecta is close enough for me.

I get it, I just hold that at a different level because those storms were massive. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.

True... just noticed that Euro AI and GFS argue for warning snows Saturday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get it, I just hold that at a different level because those storms were massive. 

I'm not trying to imply that it will necessarily rival that stretch on a per inch basis, but I think it does help to validate the use of that season as an upper tier analog. That was a very anomalous period.

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Friday is interesting. Euro is kind of a mess but the other guidance is decent. Sort of a SWFE look. Might be a wet snow or mix at coast for awhile 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Friday is interesting. Euro is kind of a mess but the other guidance is decent. Sort of a SWFE look. Might be a wet snow or mix at coast for awhile 

GFS gives my area a foot between Wednesday and Friday.. then if we can get Sunday night into Monday.. would be epic

[Lava Rock]

looks like NNE gets mostly screwed. sweet

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday is interesting. Euro is kind of a mess but the other guidance is decent. Sort of a SWFE look. Might be a wet snow or mix at coast for awhile 

EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.

[Typhoon Tip]

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag ..

CON:  however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too.  It didn't end well for the ensembles.  Particularly in the EPS back then. 

CON:  If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. 

PRO:  The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. 

PRO:  While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern.  I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. 

PRO:  Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient.  Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away.  It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up.   This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying.  

CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting.

Lastly ... kind of a PRO.   The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH.  This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 

50/50...  We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

[Damage In Tolland]

Timing these seems tricky. Is Friday more Friday night into Saturday?

And then Sunday night/ Monday or more Monday into Tuesday?

[40/70 Benchmark]

That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag ..

CON:  however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too.  It didn't end well for the ensembles.  Particularly in the EPS back then. 

CON:  If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. 

PRO:  The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. 

PRO:  While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern.  I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. 

PRO:  Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient.  Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away.  It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up.   This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying.  

CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting.

Lastly ... kind of a PRO.   The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH.  This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 

50/50...  We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

Undoubtedly related.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Undoubtedly related.

 

Noticed that. Vortex to the north also expands and plays a role on whether or not we get Monday. But after Monday I think it may help keep the conus chinook away. 
 

I do think we’ll start to get warmer periods,  but it also could be active so maybe we can squeeze in some winter weather. 

[kdxken]

28° and light snow. Doesn't bode well for a torch day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Noticed that. Vortex to the north also expands and plays a role on whether or not we get Monday. But after Monday I think it may help keep the conus chinook away. 
 

I do think we’ll start to get warmer periods,  but it also could be active so maybe we can squeeze in some winter weather. 

Remember all year I was saying I think it will be like March 2023 with a little more help...case in point. While the pattern is redolent of that particular latter season stanza, the Pacific troughing is not quite as deleterious to winter prospects in this case because it's not as extreme and is accompanied by a favorable PV positioning.

[Typhoon Tip]

Decent Miller B exemplified by the 06z AI GFS version...   whether this happens or not, this is a run-way model

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Decent Miller B exemplified by the 06z AI GFS version...   whether this happens or not, this is a run-way model

Yea, that's blatant plagiarism of the KU cookbook.