Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that setup was nothing like what’s modeled on the ensembles. The entire continent was  furnaced then . Not saying a few mild up days in the 40’s aren’t possible . Just not 50’s and 60’s

CONUS is furnaced. You know, when you look at models….you could actually see for yourself. 

[CoastalWx]

And Go Pats!

[CoastalWx]

Definitely deep winter our there.

[Torch Tiger]

The final days and hours of winter.  Enjoy!

[MaineJayhawk]

Some real dumb takes in here this morning

[NyWxGuy]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

CONUS is furnaced. You know, when you look at models….you could actually see for yourself. 

CONUS has been furnaced most of winter. And now they're looking at anomalies at 15-30 degrees above average for the Plains. Very warm down south and out west. Eventually, if we lose the- NAO, that warmth will bleed east 

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m impressed with the winter to date…sure even more snow could have happened up to this point. But overall it’s a high B+ for me to date. If we pick up more snow later in feb, and into first half of March, it’ll go to a solid “A” for me. 

Im at climo snow almost and well bn to date with predominant snowcover almost wall to wall, so this can’t go below a B from here for me. It wouldn’t take much.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And Go Pats!

Kid Rock in the house!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Some real dumb takes in here this morning

I’m trying to teach Kevin.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely deep winter our there.

Yup. And then some, for sure.  

[dendrite]

Coldest in years in New England? We’ve done colder than this at most sites multiple times in the past few weeks.

But the point is that it’s a step up compared to where we’ve been and climo is going to make it difficult to reach the deepest winter cold again. I don’t think anyone is treating that like a “hot take”…just stating it for what it is.

I don’t understand the defensiveness from some. BDL has averaged 13 days of 40+ in Feb during the 2000s. It’s not like it’s difficult to tickle 40s after mid month when the pattern relaxes. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Im at climo snow almost and well bn to date with predominant snowcover almost wall to wall, so this can’t go below a B from here for me. It wouldn’t take much.

100% agree.  I mean it’s been super solid. If we can pick up 2-3 more systems that snow on us, this goes into a great winter for sure.  50” season climo gets, I’m at 42” in early Feb…with the deep consistent cold it’s been a good ol fashioned winter imo.   

[dendrite]

I still can’t believe my soil 8” down has stayed above freezing this whole winter. Deep pack ftw. Snow cover since 12/2. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I still can’t believe my soil 8” down has stayed above freezing this whole winter. Deep pack ftw. Snow cover since 12/2. 

Yup..great insulator for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha. you know ... I've often thought that the 21s date-designation for seasonal demarcation as a being humanity bullshit anyway.  

According to a mash up history lesson by NOAA and the Royal Met Society,

The 21st is often recognized as a seasonal change date because it aligns closely with the astronomical events of the solstices and equinoxes, which are determined by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Specifically, the March equinox, marking the start of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, typically occurs around March 20 or 21, while the September equinox marks the beginning of autumn around September 22 or 23.

That bold is bullshit.   Why?  Because it doesn't account for the solar increasing irradiance that takes place before March 21.  Nor does it account for the solar irradiance lost prior to the September 21.   Both times in which there are notable increase vs decrease ( respectively) in the mean temperature (ie, seasonality), which are a direct response to the gain vs dimming caused by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Hello?

So, I give these sources ( and the AI that did the mashing ...) a bit of a pass on this because they are after all having to describe this stuff to idiocracy - different discussion. 

However, in reality, winter should end, and spring should begin, on the date that the solar min ends.  Spring ends, summer begins on the date the solar max begins.   Summer should end and autumn begins when the max ends and -transition solar season starts... And on and so on throughout the calendar year.

Nov 8 to ~ Feb 9 is winter.  Solar min

Feb 9 to ~ May 7th is spring.  +Solar transition

May 7 to ~ Aug 10th is summer.  Solar max

Aug 10 to ~ Nov 8 is autumn. -Solar transition

And these vary by latitude.  Note, being 42 and change N, we are close to even parts per quarter, so 91.25 days plus the fact that the E spend a tiny more time on the summer part of it's orbit ... etc.   That is more realistic and obeys/observes the physical constraints native to the celestial mechanics of our solar system. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup. And then some, for sure.  

Yeah and it’s been centered right where most of us like our winter…around the solar and climo min. So if March torches it’s just a big whatever. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m trying to teach Kevin.

He’s talking about the torch twins 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Coldest in years in New England? We’ve done colder than this at most sites multiple times in the past few weeks.

But the point is that it’s a step up compared to where we’ve been and climo is going to make it difficult to reach the deepest winter cold again. I don’t think anyone is treating that like a “hot take”…just stating it for what it is.

I don’t understand the defensiveness from some. BDL has averaged 13 days of 40+ in Feb during the 2000s. It’s not like it’s difficult to tickle 40s after mid month when the pattern relaxes. 

People hate the thought of melting etc, especially when there is pack. I get it, but it is what it is. 

[ORH_wxman]

There’s this weird pendulum in here where one group tries to push “end of winter”, “back broken”, etc etc…and then another group that pushes deep winter until 4/1. 
 

Let’s just call it what it is…moderation on temps (Second half of February does this most years) but 90% of this forum only cares about snow…so what about snow? Well, next week maybe a light event mid-week and then the weekend remains in limbo. 
 

If model performance since late January is any indication, I wouldn’t feel comfortable about saying anything beyond D5-6 right now. It’s been really bad consistency. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s talking about the torch twins 

I know lol. Been a tough stretch for Torch Tiger.

[ORH_wxman]

And that includes ensembles. Literally 2 cycles ago we had a ton of hits on ensembles for next week and most of them evaporate within a run or two. Conversely, we have seen some events come back after losing them (1/18-19 did…AI remained more enthused and was correct) 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s talking about the torch twins 

Cold me now
Warm my heart?

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s this weird pendulum in here where one group tries to push “end of winter”, “back broken”, etc etc…and then another group that pushes deep winter until 4/1. 
 

Let’s just call it what it is…moderation on temps (Second half of February does this most years) but 90% of this forum only cares about snow…so what about snow? Well, next week maybe a light event mid-week and then the weekend remains in limbo. 
 

If model performance since late January is any indication, I wouldn’t feel comfortable about saying anything beyond D5-6 right now. It’s been really bad consistency. 

For the deep cold and feel I think we’re done. That’s what I meant. Threats look to return after any moderation. 

[CoastalWx]

BOS harbor 38. Not sure when the last time was they touched that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s this weird pendulum in here where one group tries to push “end of winter”, “back broken”, etc etc…and then another group that pushes deep winter until 4/1. 
 

Let’s just call it what it is…moderation on temps (Second half of February does this most years) but 90% of this forum only cares about snow…so what about snow? Well, next week maybe a light event mid-week and then the weekend remains in limbo. 
 

If model performance since late January is any indication, I wouldn’t feel comfortable about saying anything beyond D5-6 right now. It’s been really bad consistency. 

It’s like you were in my head and typing on my phone 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

For the deep cold and feel I think we’re done. That’s what I meant. Threats look to return after any moderation. 

Yeah hard to get CAA below 0F temps into SNE after mid February.

But I honestly couldn’t care less about that crap….unless it’s really high end where records are threatened. I’ll take moderate temps with lots of chances over deep layer CAA and stein. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hard to get CAA below 0F temps into SNE after mid February.

But I honestly couldn’t care less about that crap….unless it’s really high end where records are threatened. I’ll take moderate temps with lots of chances over deep layer CAA and stein. 

It hasn’t been talked about, but we’ve had stein for awhile. Yes we had that big storm that had significant QPF but Steiny overall. 
 

Seems like maybe we can break that later this month. I hope anyways. 

[dendrite]

Back isn’t broken but it’s Larry Bird laying on his stomach on the parquet with a towel. 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back isn’t broken but it’s Larry Bird laying on his stomach on the parquet with a towel. 

it's broken

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It hasn’t been talked about, but we’ve had stein for awhile. Yes we had that big storm that had significant QPF but Steiny overall. 
 

Seems like maybe we can break that later this month. I hope anyways. 

Yep. Maybe we get a couple cutters or rainers  and that’s the beginning of the pack disintegrating but at this point, might as well roll the dice with a milder but more active pattern and try to increase the snow pack with some juicier events. I don’t need highs of 24F and stein watching it sublimate. That would remind me of the 3 weeks after Mid-Feb 2014. That was painful watching such a monster pack just slowly sublimate in the late winter sun every day even though it stayed very cold.