Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s surface temps. Read.

That’s not warm and not viable 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Today was really nice.

Got up into the 20s at most elevations.  I could go for more of that.  Felt comfortable out there for once lol.

Been over a week since the last snowfall but I’ve still got my spots for fresh tracks.

Aching for spring myself. Someone needs to put how much snow fell post 2/6 on all these years. I see biggies for the most part but  a couple ratters too 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had a brief warmup after Cmas around the 28-29th but yeah, the real warmup was 2nd week of January. It’s been pretty cold otherwise. 
 

I’m not on the torch train at all for mid-Feb. I think it will be AN but only modestly…seems like guidance has been trending to push systems underneath us as we get closer to that period versus the other way around. To be fair, even modestly AN will feel like a furnace given the previous 3 weeks. 

Yes. And this all we’ve been saying. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The moderation we had in Jan did not mute. This one seems to be on track and was never a torch. That may come after V day. 

Stop f’n nitpicking. The thaw in Jan wasn’t a torch by any means, but sure, it warmed. Nobody ever said it didn’t.   But before and after it’s been an frieken ice box! You gonna argue that?  And that’s been the tenor.   The tenor is the long term look/feel..and the look/and feel has been dam cold.  You’re a negative Nellie always looking for something to nitpick…especially for someone who just got two feet of snow. 
 

After Valentine’s Day is clown range.  We’ll see how that looks next week. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dang Scoots…GL in the ring.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Aching for spring myself. Someone needs to put how much snow fell post 2/6 on all these years. I see biggies for the most part but  a couple ratters too 

I am very confident our pre season call that EOR ends 150% and WOR 125% of snow avg remains on track..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A friend of mine took this picture of Buzzards Bay from New Silver Beach today.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes. And this all we’ve been saying. 

 

Stop f’n nitpicking. The thaw in Jan wasn’t a torch by any means, but sure, it warmed. Nobody ever said it didn’t.   But before and after it’s been an frieken ice box! You gonna argue that?  And that’s been the tenor.   The tenor is the long term look/feel..and the look/and feel has been dam cold.  You’re a negative Nellie always looking for something to nitpick…especially for someone who just got two feet of snow. 
 

After Valentine’s Day is clown range.  We’ll see how that looks next week. 

I know you people don’t like facts and science so I’ll give it to you. That period was very mild with days of +10 to 15. So yeah it was very mild. 
 

Im not sure why you are putting words in my mouth about it not being cold. Never said that. But to think somehow we just ignore multiple models and signals for milder weather because its been cold is just ridiculous. 

[Ginx snewx]

The torch warm up is completely muted by  18z GEFS

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…very impressive.  
 

So back on Wednesday the 21st…you guys didn’t go above 32?  I think that’s the last day we did..when it started out in the single digits, but warned up to close to 40 that afternoon.  Then it snowed that evening/night with a couple inches. But since then it hasn’t broke 32 here.  So 13 days so far and counting.  Quite the run for sure. 

nah, 23.6° on the 21st here, I'm curious what the record is in this area for below freezing 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The torch warm up is completely muted by  18z GEFS

i don't think we will warm much lol  if guidance latches onto a mild spell <D7, i'll look more closely

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

i don't think we will warm much lol  if guidance latches onto a mild spell <D7, i'll look more closely

I am with you. Modeling has been atrocious warm or cold 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

The torch warm up is completely muted by  18z GEFS

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. 
 

I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. 
 

I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January. 

Like you said it's a more typical mid February on lots of snow chances if we are on the right side of the gradient 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know you people don’t like facts and science so I’ll give it to you. That period was very mild with days of +10 to 15. So yeah it was very mild. 
 

Im not sure why you are putting words in my mouth about it not being cold. Never said that. But to think somehow we just ignore multiple models and signals for milder weather because it’s been cold is just ridiculous. 

No, You’re putting words in my mouth! I never said it didn’t get warm or moderate..I said the tenor has been for cold more often. That’s what I said. And that’s what it’s been. That’s a fact for your ass.
 

You didn’t like that I said tenor. So then you took it into this. Cuz god forbid we challenge something that meteorologist Scott says.  
 

And some modeling today has muted the moderation now…does that happen? I don’t know.  But that’s been what has happened more often than not this season, when warm ups have been shown(save the jan thaw).   So no words are ever put in your mouth.  It moderated/thawed in Jan, no doubt. Other than that it’s been an ice box. That’s all that was being expressed. 

 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. 
 

I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January. 

Very reasonable. Sounds good. Gotta see how it plays out. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No, You’re putting words in my mouth! I never said it didn’t get warm or moderate..I said the tenor has been for cold more often. That’s what I said. And that’s what it’s been. That’s a fact for your ass.
 

You didn’t like that I said tenor. So then you took it into this. Cuz god forbid we challenge something that meteorologist Scott says.  
 

And some modeling today has muted the moderation now…does that happen? I don’t know.  But that’s been what has happened more often than not this season, when warm ups have been shown(save the jan thaw).   So no words are ever put in your mouth.  It moderated/thawed in Jan, no doubt. Other than that it’s been an ice box. That’s all that was being expressed. 

 

Well I hope your 14-15 redux comes to fruition. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. 
 

I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January. 

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

Same ones who poo pood our 2 footer until they couldn't? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

Well I don’t know where they live but pretty much every time someone tries to “end winter” in New England that early, they are wrong. Unless it’s one of those epic ratter years like 1994-95 or 2019-2020.
 

 If they are talking about not seeing highs of 15F and lows of -10F again…yeah, that’s like saying we won’t see 95F again on August 15th…prob correct but there’s still going to be plenty of summer wx to get through. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

Aren’t you the one that says snow means nothing in Morch? After all you always say it’s not a winter month. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

Back is broken for deep winter after that. It gets mild and if it does cool off we’re  heading into Morch. Not sure about these big March calls when the PV brings the cold to Asia. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Aren’t you the one that says snow means nothing in Morch? After all you always say it’s not a winter month. 

If it’s been a decent winter, he sometimes gets “early-March curious”…he will pretend early March is an extension of February (which it often is)

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The OP run basically had us N or BN almost the entire run. GEFS look warmer at the end of the run. 
 

I expect a period of AN temps but I’m not expecting a bunch of double digit positive departures like we saw for a week in January. 

I’ve got a group of Mets for you that are ending winter after V Day. They are very adamant 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Back is broken for deep winter after that. It gets mild and if it does cool off we’re  heading into Morch. Not sure about these but March calls when the PV brings the cold to Asia. 

Let’s go March 2018…PV on other side of pole but we just crushed it with that blocking regardless. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Back is broken for deep winter after that. It gets mild and if it does cool off we’re  heading into Morch. Not sure about these big March calls when the PV brings the cold to Asia. 

Oh look., there’s one of them 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am very confident our pre season call that EOR ends 150% and WOR 125% of snow avg remains on track..

I think 90" here will be tough..gonna need March 2018.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well I don’t know where they live but pretty much every time someone tries to “end winter” in New England that early, they are wrong. Unless it’s one of those epic ratter years like 1994-95 or 2019-2020.
 

 If they are talking about not seeing highs of 15F and lows of -10F again…yeah, that’s like saying we won’t see 95F again on August 15th…prob correct but there’s still going to be plenty of summer wx to get through. 

They all live in SNE. Couple coasties and one valley dweller 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it’s been a decent winter, he sometimes gets “early-March curious”…he will pretend early March is an extension of February (which it often is)

LOL

I hope the AI models are right and we can try and squeeze something in over the next 10 days. Just not a big fan overall of that look. Looks ugly to me but I can see ways of pulling it off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go March 2018…PV on other side of pole but we just crushed it with that blocking regardless. 

My main March analog along with 2001. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They all live in SNE

You're so dramatic lol