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Is we back? February discussion thread


mahk_webstah
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Relative to WINDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Embrace all the varieties of winter that is gifted to us. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth.   All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know they did not exist a minute ago.  I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... 

the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me.  

I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that.  Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

Yeah the AI models look like early 90s MRF. But they would wipe the floor with that model. Day 10 AI verification is similar to 120hr MRF in the old days. Lower (output) resolution doesn't really harm their ability to capture synoptic progression because they are not directly physics-based. The visual of low resolution biases our perception of their worth. You really should look at them more. The ECMWF-AIFS is also getting a resolution upgrade I think.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If a climo snowfall winter is the new the holy grail, I think we are all in for angst and need to move.

Nah you are obsessed searching for a 12 /92 or an April fools and of course if you don't JP your angst increases.

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