Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS as well. The extended looks primed up. February will be a tracking fun time. 

I guess I sensed an optimistic tone in your interpretation. Agree concerning volatility, but I think the correction vector in terms of at least the middle third of the month is warmer. Hopefully I'm wrong.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Optimism?  Just my interpretation. The way LR models flip there is zero Optimism. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guys are a lock imho

Yea, probably a great pattern for NNE.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

[CoastalWx]

That was 00z. 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

For you?

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am somewhat intrigued by the AI more wintry scenarios and the ensembles included. They’ve performed well lately.

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth.   All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know they did not exist a minute ago.  I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... 

the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me.  

I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that.  Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

Windex city with a Norlun possibility. Why winter rocks so many elements big and small  

[weatherwiz]

The period around mid February is quite intriguing I think, at least in terms of the evolution of teleconnections which I know Tip has touched upon. But during that period the NAO is forecast to become less negative over time with the PNA becoming more neutral. Will be very active in the shortwave department. Obviously how everything evolves is a different story but that is a period to 100% watch

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth.   All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know the did not exist a minute ago.  I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... 

the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me.  

I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that.  Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

Hi res AI models are available if you pony up.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

could be potential for some decent OES across the Cape Sunday/Monday 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

could be potential for some decent OES across the Cape Sunday/Monday 

Really think people are going to be surprised at the impact that the TPV visit this weekend will have.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really think people are going to be surprised at the impact that the TPV visit this weekend will have.

Agreed. 

These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. 

These things don't just come in quiet. I think there will be snow showers and squalls around all weekend, perhaps not widespread but there is definitely some moisture around. Orographically areas likely favored 

Relative to WINDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The period around mid February is quite intriguing I think, at least in terms of the evolution of teleconnections which I know Tip has touched upon. But during that period the NAO is forecast to become less negative over time with the PNA becoming more neutral. Will be very active in the shortwave department. Obviously how everything evolves is a different story but that is a period to 100% watch

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. 

It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for...    neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. 

Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time.   -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO.

wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really think people are going to be surprised at the impact that the TPV visit this weekend will have.

Snowy and damaging CAA wind gusts. Check Bufkit

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Relative to WIDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. 

A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward. 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth.   All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know they did not exist a minute ago.  I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... 

the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me.  

I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that.  Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

I just getting a feel for them too, but overall I’ve been fairly impressed with them sniffing signals out, or like this recent Carolina snow event, selling stuff here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I just recalled this..

the stricter interpretation of the H.A. thesis, which really applies everywhere in nature ... whenever going from one state of a system, to a new state, requires events.  That really all that is.   Anyway, the -NAO differentiating ( or rising) to a +NAO did have a minoring statistic correlation with precipitation over eastern N/A.   So technicall ... that +d(NAO) out there ... it's a little bit of a stretch though, because that particular correlation is really more overrunning related, whereas the current signals by the Can ens appears to be a vague early detection of Miller B

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. 

It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for...    neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to getting a kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and a solitary run of the GFS (06z). 

Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time.   -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO.

wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. 

Rise in the NAO

with a declining PNA

All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. 

Rise in the NAO

with a declining PNA

All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much.   

The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere.  It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...).  Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff.  

It's all sketchy to me at best.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. 

It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for...    neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. 

Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time.   -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO.

wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just getting a feel for them too, but overall I’ve been fairly impressed with them sniffing signals out, or like this recent Carolina snow event, selling stuff here. 

Yea. I'm impressed with the AI suite overall.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much.   

The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere.  It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...).  Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff.  

It's all sketchy to me at best.

 

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. 

A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward. 

I do like 2023 as a late season analog (Feb-March), but the RNA shouldn't be as extreme. 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. 

Rise in the NAO

with a declining PNA

All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

HA defined her regime transitions from -1 SD to +1 SD or vice versa. 

[ineedsnow]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 2-3 on euro Friday night with more on cstl PYM county.

Some fun 6z EPS members but mostly for eastern areas though

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

Idealistically ... but correlations are not 1::1.   You can get a coastal despite and have it just be a realization of the lower probability schemes.  Same reason why you get popped by lightning walking out to collect the mail - just because there's a .0000000034% chance of getting electricuted fetching the mail, shit happens.

The take away ... sorta like what Brian was just saying, is that your moving -1 to +1 SD in the PNA domain, which HA owns that work but it's applicable to all domains frankly.  Switching from +EPO to -EPO (so going the other direction) favors cold and storminess in Denver.   Moving from +WPO to -WPO, with applied time lag, favors lowering EPO and/or rising the PNA ... (complex relay), both of which can then implicated cold loading into the N/A ... 

The theme here is changing indexes from a fair weather time, to a correlated not fair type, tends to be heralded in with an event.  They are "restoring" events.

[Typhoon Tip]

But it is a matter of a scale.   There are events that take place regardless of indexes; they may seem like they were anti-correlated when they do.  However, the restoring forces were required by smaller mass field disruptions, taking place intra index.  I personally call these sub-index events.