The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[DraydenWX]

These models are having a hard time with his setup we’ve seen a lot of solutions in the last couple days.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Would be pretty hilarious if that trailing wave sped up enough that it actually caught up and phased in with our storm.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think the precip shield will be much higher than models are depicting right now.

I don’t. By the time it reaches near us, it’s got that classic tightly wound precip field we see clobber the coastal areas in Nina’s.

[Nomz]

GEFS damn near unchanged since 18z

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If you go back and read the research on the 2000 storm, it was the wrong piece of energy the models were focusing on. Iirc, a wave dove into the back side of the developing ull pulling the surface low west. Alot like how the "kicker" you guys keep calling it is fying in faster and faster each run.....

Each run of the GFS? Or has the Euro and/or other guidance shown this as well?

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

RIC went from 1.9” at 18z  to 8.9” at 00z ….

[Amped]

Think its safe to say the 18z Euro was probably a hiccup. No other model is showing snow for NYC.

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Think its safe to say the 18z Euro was probably a hiccup. No other model is showing snow for NYC.

I'll wait for the 00z euro to say so. 00z UKMET is a vast improvement FWIW, but it went from completely ots to OBX blizzard

[attml]

I have good news!  My snow blower self-propelled cable broke less than 1/2 way into clearing my 1/8th of mile driveway during this past storm and the replacement part doesn't arrive until next week.

This thing can't miss!  :-)

You guys are welcome!

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I'll wait for the 00z euro to say so. 00z UKMET is a vast improvement FWIW, but it went from completely ots to OBX blizzard

WHen we are this close now... having the furthest east model come in line with consensus is not an "improvement" if the consensus is a miss.  That is simply guidance converging on the solution...but in this case that solution is a miss.  When a full run of guidance is over...average everything together...and if the average of all the guidance (and you should weight it, the euro gets more weight than the GFS in this math) but if the mean of the whole suite of runs didn't move closer...it wasn't an improvement just because one or two of the worst solutions got marginally better.  

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

WHen we are this close now... having the furthest east model come in line with consensus is not an "improvement" if the consensus is a miss.  That is simply guidance converging on the solution...but in this case that solution is a miss.  When a full run of guidance is over...average everything together...and if the average of all the guidance (and you should weight it, the euro gets more weight than the GFS in this math) but if the mean of the whole suite of runs didn't move closer...it wasn't an improvement just because one or two of the worst solutions got marginally better.  

Germans - Pearl Harbor - Bluto

[Nomz]

FWIW, WeatherNext 18z run
https://x.com/PettusWX/status/2016727369034178589

[stormtracker]

I got one more Euro run in me.  After that, it's time to eject.

[Amped]

The 500mb evolution is pretty locked in at this point. Connective feedback dynamics are gonna control the differences in outcomes between models and runs.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

The 500mb evolution is pretty locked in at this point. Connective feedback dynamics are gonna control the differences in outcomes between models and runs.

which given the delicate nature of the evolution could have very big impacts to sensible weather for some areas.

[Nomz]

Dare I say it... If the western low is the primary/only low, this will drive much further up the coast than currently modeled. I also don't think this will be resolved until we're in short range. Probably copium though.

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Dare I say it... If the western low is the primary/only low, this will drive much further up the coast than currently modeled. I also don't think this will be resolved until we're in short range. Probably copium though.

You're not the only one saying it, I am willing to go down on that ship with you. Let's see what tomorrows runs bring.

[overcautionisbad]

47 minutes ago, attml said:

I have good news!  My snow blower self-propelled cable broke less than 1/2 way into clearing my 1/8th of mile driveway during this past storm and the replacement part doesn't arrive until next week.

This thing can't miss!  :-)

You guys are welcome!

 

Thanks man

[Cobalt]

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

2-4” ?? Sold

[Demeter]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

A girl can dream, at this point. I’d take it lol

[overcautionisbad]

30 minutes ago, Nomz said:

FWIW, WeatherNext 18z run
https://x.com/PettusWX/status/2016727369034178589

AI slop

[overcautionisbad]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

2-4” ?? Sold

He said his 2 inch line was aggressive as his thoughts are moisture will get further north than models say. Pointed to how they have been off on cold air and temps

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

I’m sure the Euro will respond to DT’s map

[Nomz]

Speaking of the Euro, the king is at work

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI

Ai slop

[Nomz]

Welp, enjoy it OBX. Hope this doesn't hit Boston.

[stormtracker]

Forgot all about it.  No huge differences so far

[stormtracker]

Seems like it's going to be a little worse than 18z.   Time to wrap this baby up