The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Weather Will]

HR 49

[Weather Will]

HR 61

[Weather Will]

HR 71

[Buddy1987]

I feel like you can already see the heights are too flat and it’s not digging as much on the back side.. compared to the GFS that is@Weather Will

[Weather Will]

HR 81

[Weather Will]

HR 93- will add surface map when out 

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

HR 93- will add surface map when out 

 

Looks like trash glad I went to bed last night. Looks like no closer to that thing hitting. 

[SBYWeather]

Looks to be going neutral to negatively tilted a little sooner then 0z 

[mitchnick]

Here comes the northern stream energy to kick it east.

[winter_warlock]

21 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We still have plenty of time for this to trend more in favor of snow blitzing the DMV. We are still about 3 days out. I like where we are right now. We're gonna reel this one in.

Just the thought of all that fresh pow piling on top of a deep ice glacier in the DCA region is mind-boggling.

I want what ur drinking

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO HR 81

 

[Terpeast]

Looks better than 0z, but not as good as 18z

[GreyHat]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

HR 81

Here's 00z and 18z

[SBYWeather]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Here's 00z and 18z

Much better 500mb at 06z, if we could just slowdown that kicker behind it......

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO compared to OZ

[Terpeast]

Just now, SBYWeather said:

Much better 500mb at 06z, if we could just slowdown that kicker behind it......

Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit

[Weather Will]

We don't have a final solution yet, but AI so far east 3 days out is a huge red flag.

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit

Anything is possible as it took a step in the right direction or at least the precip is more in land compared to 00z. I personally still think Thursday is the make or break like the last storm.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Weather Will said:

We don't have a final solution yet, but AI so far east 3 days out is a huge red flag.

I don't think we're any closer to the final solution yet, but we have 1 less day to make those large shifts.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO compared to OZ

Boston probably not mad about that run...always dangerous to take positive talk from that forum and try to translate down here. That almost looks like the boxing day debacle 

[RevWarReenactor]

In terms of precip its probably the best run we've seen. It actually puts some snow into the cities. In some cases more than the GFS does. 

[wasnow215]

Just now, Weather Will said:

We don't have a final solution yet, but AI so far east 3 days out is a huge red flag.

When you search, AI also says there's a Shawshank Redemption 2 coming out. Or it did a couple months ago. I think it still has a lot to prove is the point lol

[Voyager]

25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think it’s evident that the kicker on the NS coming SE out of central Canada into the Dakotas is knocking our storm eastbound.  This has happened before in the past and is the most likely scenario.  The storm develops but it just cannot climb delicate set up to say the least. 
 

it’s that last line that will have me watching this until 12z Thursday what else is there to do but pray for that 3 day shift. So far though fun storm to track and that’s why I’m here. 

Which begs the question. Why does there almost always seem to be a kicker that pushes the storm out nearly every time we get a chance at a coast hugging Miller A?

[anotherman]

Boston probably not mad about that run...always dangerous to take positive talk from that forum and try to translate down here. That almost looks like the boxing day debacle 

Too far east for Boxing Day. Jersey got smoked.

[mitchnick]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Boston probably not mad about that run...always dangerous to take positive talk from that forum and try to translate down here. That almost looks like the boxing day debacle 

This has had Boston's name all over it from the start with the way it extends east.

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Boston probably not mad about that run...always dangerous to take positive talk from that forum and try to translate down here. That almost looks like the boxing day debacle 

We are one day from SREF hallucinations if people keep summoning that evil…

[SBYWeather]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit

That would be ideal, but honestly with the setup it seems like it would act as a kicker and no real shot of phasing at this time. Still something to watch for though as we have some time. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

We are one day from SREF hallucinations if people keep summoning that evil…

I mean its a lot heavier lift to get that thing back here to me than you. I'd almost feel good if I was in your spot

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, if you compare 0z Nam to 6z, you can see that it took has taken on the precip shield as Gfs and Euro at 84hrs vs the "headed north" look of 0z.

[baltosquid]

EPS looks a bit better. Members getting closer.