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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 

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Pretty much been this way starting back in late November.   NE last to get in on any warmup and also dry.  NE has really hung tough with the cold this winter season.

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While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 
IMG_5772.thumb.png.ef228e1a180eb5f8345de71bf8867ef7.png
IMG_5773.thumb.png.2a08dc4bb44f9a7bce0177b3be9809ba.png
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IMG_5775.thumb.png.3ccdd8e12c26ed3ef52af9443c6aeb55.png

With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024…..

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. 

There have been two water main breaks by me in the last couple of weeks, in almost the same spot in Butler on RT. 23.

 

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Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow.  I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us.  It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it!

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45 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow.  I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us.  It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it!

A positive for sure. But when the ice piles in the parking lots turn black and grimy I either want more snow or it to start melting. More snow doesn't look too likely so...

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Archambault event

Buckle up

Heather Archambault image.jpeg.935d56298da41f5da11920ad62fe61b4.jpeg

About me:

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/images/me.jpg

In September 2011, I began a postdoc with Profs. Pat Harr and Rich Moore in the Department of Meteorology at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.

Before coming to NPS, I earned my Ph.D. and M.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany, where I was advised by Profs. Dan Keyser and Lance Bosart. My Ph.D. dissertation on the downstream extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones can be accessed here.

For my M.S. thesis, I examined statistical and synoptic-dynamic relationships between major cool-season Northeast precipitation events and North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific–North American regime transitions. Two journal articles describing this work are available here and here.

I received a B.S. in Meteorology from Penn State University.

My research interests span a variety of topics in synoptic–dynamic meteorology. I am especially interested in the dynamics and predictabilty of tropical–extratropical interactions that serve as precursors to remote high-impact weather events such as heat waves, severe weather outbreaks, or winter storms.

In my free time, I like to hike, bike, experience California's microclimates, listen to or attempt to make music, spend time in cafes (especially for brunch), watch anything featuring anyone from the "The State", play or watch basketball, pore over the New York Times online, travel, see movies, and spend time with family.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I would like to know how you came to that conclusion...

Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them!

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4 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them!

I'll pass on turning your theory into a pissing contest debate..........

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Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

In other words it's way too early to come to any conclusions about that potential

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.

Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. 

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. 

I doubt it.  We still have blocking. Its not thread the needle.

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