MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Icon gfs and cmc have a storm on the 16th. Possibly Miller B 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. There have been two water main breaks by me in the last couple of weeks, in almost the same spot in Butler on RT. 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon gfs and cmc have a storm on the 16th. Possibly Miller B Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow. I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us. It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it! 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place. Retreating high pressure. Never good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place. Way too early to say 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 45 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow. I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us. It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it! A positive for sure. But when the ice piles in the parking lots turn black and grimy I either want more snow or it to start melting. More snow doesn't look too likely so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Archambault event Buckle up 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Archambault event Buckle up So close for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, vegan_edible said: color me skeptical yes` 12Z misses to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Archambault event Buckle up Heather Archambault About me: http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/images/me.jpg In September 2011, I began a postdoc with Profs. Pat Harr and Rich Moore in the Department of Meteorology at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA. Before coming to NPS, I earned my Ph.D. and M.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University at Albany, where I was advised by Profs. Dan Keyser and Lance Bosart. My Ph.D. dissertation on the downstream extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones can be accessed here. For my M.S. thesis, I examined statistical and synoptic-dynamic relationships between major cool-season Northeast precipitation events and North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific–North American regime transitions. Two journal articles describing this work are available here and here. I received a B.S. in Meteorology from Penn State University. My research interests span a variety of topics in synoptic–dynamic meteorology. I am especially interested in the dynamics and predictabilty of tropical–extratropical interactions that serve as precursors to remote high-impact weather events such as heat waves, severe weather outbreaks, or winter storms. In my free time, I like to hike, bike, experience California's microclimates, listen to or attempt to make music, spend time in cafes (especially for brunch), watch anything featuring anyone from the "The State", play or watch basketball, pore over the New York Times online, travel, see movies, and spend time with family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south. I would like to know how you came to that conclusion... 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I would like to know how you came to that conclusion... Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: Generally miller B's either get too amped and become a SWFE which favor new england, or they get too flat and suppressed and start favoring delmarva. Our region is almost never favored by them! I'll pass on turning your theory into a pissing contest debate.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested. In other words it's way too early to come to any conclusions about that potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: I think next week's storm is either and interior event, or suppressed too far south. A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested. Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, deathstar9 said: A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing. Snow storm, February 5, 2001 - Storm Summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Some photos from this morning. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, deathstar9 said: A Feb 5 2001 type storm would be amazing. Took me 5 hours to drive 10 miles home from work. It was such a heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Cold source is dwindling by the time the storm occurs. It would be a thread the needle event if it does happen. I doubt it. We still have blocking. Its not thread the needle. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Courtesy of 33andrain 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Courtesy of 33andrain Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said: Quite a bit of spread. We can start paying attention to operationals by wednesday perhaps. I'm not thrilled about the garbage pacific though. Would need the good atlantic to carry the storm. We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some photos from this morning. Great photos Don. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: We need a negative PNA to get moisture up here unless you like suppression. Negative PNA is like playing with fire. Can easily cut too much with it. I'd rather have +PNA and risk suppression. Historically the big ones all had +PNA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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