NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:12 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:12 AM 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing. it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 05:15 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:15 AM 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO It's coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time. We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here. So you think the low will track due north or almost due north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM we'll see if the gefs/gfs shift the qpf west next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:28 AM 23 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Not to be an ass, but your roof must be pretty unstable. This is pure fluff for the time being. sounds like a flat roof to me - most of the sloped roofs lose the snow faster especially south facing ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:37 AM The EURO AI moved east from 18Z - this thing has to take on a more negative tilt IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted Tuesday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:02 AM Euro trending OTS also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM Whoops. Nvm. At 114 pulls the low back to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing. What? Your roof should be able to hold at least 3-4 feet of snow. You’ll be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM 8 minutes ago, DreamBig said: Whoops. Nvm. At 114 pulls the low back to the coast The lp on 0Z Euro went from a 995 to a 983 stalled off NC coast in 6 hours - BUT 12 hours later deepens to 962mb moving east - weird solution and progressive flow that L near Minnesota is not a good signal with HP in southeast Canada - too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM Euro trended east, ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 AM Looks like the Euro slides due east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 AM 12 minutes ago, DreamBig said: Euro trended east, ots Progressive flow caused by that LP vort near Minnesota moving east BUT is it right ? See if the EPS agrees with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 07:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 AM EPS mean still delivers a few inches snow - ratio's probably higher than 10:1 - liquid QPF Map - don't have access to snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted Tuesday at 09:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:08 AM 00z EPS spread is giving me the classic Hatteras to BM vibes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 09:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 AM 06z GFS is running. Out to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 09:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:59 AM Out to 102 hours. A weak low off of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 10:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 AM Bet it goes for Nantucket. That arctic high is about where the Blizzard of 1899 central recordbreaker high was (direct hit on NYC) 2-13-1899. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 10:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:03 AM Hmmm.... this looks different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:06 AM Very close but still a miss. Southern States get a lot of snow. Great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 10:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 AM Swing and a miss again. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted Tuesday at 10:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:10 AM Just now, TriPol said: Swing and a miss again. OTS. That kicker in the northern stream is what prevents it from coming up the coast. It’s been on the models the last 24 hours. Not feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 AM Just now, Neblizzard said: That kicker in the northern stream is what prevents it from coming up the coast. It’s been on the models the last 24 hours. Not feeling good about this one. Very close We go through this all the time with big storms. Timing is key. Good gfs run ( close enough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 10:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 AM You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:14 AM Just now, Roger Smith said: You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980. Yep south gets crushed. I mean the last storm also had them getting crushed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM Think by Thursday it’s go/no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Think by Thursday it’s go/no go Defintely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s! Its January. Spring can wait until May. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted Tuesday at 10:19 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:19 AM Aigfs is nice hit for LI. 4 straight runs of correcting nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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