Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Typhoon Tip]

`Gulp!

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

`Gulp!

Yeah, safe to say what the ICON is showing here would be epic. somebody getting 20-30 with that look

[dryslot]

ICON bomb.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah, safe to say what the ICON is showing here would be epic. somebody getting 20-30 with that look

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still...  jesus h christ with that thing.   

20-30 with that look?   no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. 

That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured?  That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard.  Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still...  jesus h christ with that thing.   

20-30 with that look?   no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. 

That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured?  That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard.  Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

lol - yes, just for fun and my description didn't do that justice.

Unmeasurable amounts of snow and drifts connecting to roofs. AI slop images not needed when you have it in reality!

[dryslot]

If what has fallen so far today, And this potential one next weekend, I could end up over my seasonal avg in early Feb.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still...  jesus h christ with that thing.   

20-30 with that look?   no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. 

That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured?  That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard.  Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

Don't remember which model run had it, But one of them showed this with a warm core ha ha.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Don't remember which model run had it, But one of them showed this with a warm core ha ha.

Yeah all these models have at one time or the other flashed out nudity at us... 

But the key in recency here is that we are really coalescing and picking an actual date/event.  

I was just looking at the AI Euro runs from 00z and 06z overnight... ( I still need to get used to the fact that these "tools" exist, how/when/biases in using them - ) and yeah.  Those two runs fit right in.  

The 06z run is really a GOAT type storm from PHL-PWM

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah all these models have at one time or the other flashed out nudity at us... 

But the key in recency here is that we are really coalescing and picking an actual date/event.  

I was just looking at the AI Euro runs from 00z and 06z overnight... ( I still need to get used to the fact that these "tools" exist, how/when/biases in using them - ) and yeah.  Those two runs fit right in.  

The 06z run is really a GOAT type storm from PHL-PWM

AI models looks like right now have skill in the mid term as they learn they should get better, So just another tool in the pouch for now.

[dryslot]

12z GFS getting ready to light a fuse.

[dryslot]

Closes off @H5 pretty far south this run.

[Hailstoned]

Would this storm, having been an overrunning event on steroids, but lacking barometric "depth;" therefore in its "undisturbed" wake allow for this follow-up to be much more likely to hug the coast, as opposed to being driven out to sea?

[Prismshine Productions]

2015 Super Bowl: Patriots and Seahawks, Northeast had an epic winter
2026 Super Bowl: Patriots and Seahawks

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[Prismshine Productions]

12z GFS scraper for SE New England

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[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Would this storm, having been an overrunning event on steroids, but lacking barometric "depth;" therefore in its "undisturbed" wake allow for this follow-up to be much more likely to hug the coast, as opposed to being driven out to sea?

Spacing between systems is far enough apart that ant disturbance to Baroclinic zone would be gone.

[weatherwiz]

I would lean towards the 12z GFS being too far south and east 

[Prismshine Productions]

I would lean towards the 12z GFS being too far south and east 

Was with Fern

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[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Was with Fern

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Going to go with what my professor talked about with this past storm and how the GFS tends to be too far south and east with developing low pressures with Arctic boundaries around. GFS tends to develop them more towards the warmer side of the boundary (or a bit south and east of the boundary) when the reality is they tend to develop right along the Arctic boundary. Models can struggle with Arctic boundaries because the depth of the Arctic cold is on the shallower side

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would lean towards the 12z GFS being too far south and east 

Mmm I personally would too

I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W.  

For this model ..?  I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

[ariof]

Massive hit on the CMC. 956 mb basically on top of the benchmark.

[ineedsnow]

holy shit CMC 

[dryslot]

12z CMC is a crush job

[Heisy]

Massive hit on the CMC. 956 mb basically on top of the benchmark.

I can’t believe this might happen lol


.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh my god

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm I personally wouldn't

I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W.  

For this model ..?  I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

I'm confused with this. 

Are you saying you think the GFS will eventually come more NW? If so, that's what I was referring to 

[SouthCoastMA]

CMC has 32" on the snow map for PYM. These runs are too good for Day 6. 

[weatherwiz]

yeah I'll do without a sub 970 low please...hell I'll do without sub 980

[NoCORH4L]

CMC is a TwitterSlop model, unfortunately. 

[MJO812]

Wtf is going on

[WxWatcher007]

Yikes--you can just see how explosive the potential is. Medium range too. Not fantasyland.