CoolBreeze Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 When will the pbp for the short range models (or map postings) commence here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTWolf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Is Wilmington really 20 miles away from possibly doubling their totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said: When will the pbp for the short range models (or map postings) commence here? HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 18z HRRR out to 24 so far looking better for snow in ATL area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I feel like the short range models are all trending slower. This storm was supposed to start in central NC around 6z Saturday but now it’s more like 14-18z. Gives that southern energy more time to ride up the edge of the ULL. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Slower and west is the theme still good for western carolinas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 sref plumes continue to increase for RDU. 15z - 13.09 09z - 12.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, thekidcurtis said: sref plumes continue to increase for RDU. 15z - 13.09 09z - 12.5 That’s a lot of members over 20” now… wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, wakegrrl said: That's what they're showing for Apex as well. Makes sense to me. Move it 1 pixel south or so and its 3-5 Saturday, 3-7 Sat nite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Droessl Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 That's an insane spread of SREF plumes this close to the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, wncsnow said: HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot that doesn't look like a dry slot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Droessl said: That's an insane spread of SREF plumes this close to the event That shows how hard it is for the CAMs to pinpoint where these heavier bands are going to set up. As many have said... Heavy bands create subsidence which means there may be a rather large disparity in totals over a relatively short distance. That withstanding, as this slows down, I would hedge towards higher amounts due to the fact that it *should* give the LP more time to consolidate and throw back precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, wake4est said: that doesn't look like a dry slot You're right its bigger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 SREF for charlotte went from roughly 5 inches at 9z to 7.25 at 15z Both of these numbers are higher if you dont take out the top 2 and bottom two outliers which I always do. Although not really important, but the outliers that I took out on the 15z were up to 15 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It’s more like a U honestly. And the first word begins with F.. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot Yikes. That’s not good for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot Wow. That would be devastating at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot Forget a cliff diving thread. That would be straight to a grippy sock vacation if you’re stuck between two large areas of snow and get absolutely nothing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR is a disaster for the triangle. This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I know it’s had a dodgy past, but after the last two storms…if this verifies…maybe pump the brakes on decommissioning the NAM. Because if this is how it plays out, it took literally every other model to school.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 ruh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Let’s hope the hrrr is a big pile of trash. How does it go to that extreme in one run? If I recall it busted badily on the high end for last storm so here’s to hoping it’s just trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Both the HRRR and the Nam 3K are showing that huge snow void. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR at 32 hrs is a stretch. It's not always wrong, but it's a short range model designed for really 12-18 hrs out at most. If that look is real, I would not be surprised to see this be pretty dry forum wide. But based on how the storm is already developing, I would say this is not going to develop and be shunted further East like the HRRR appears to be showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinLover Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR looking solid for a decent snow in NW ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR is a disaster for the triangle. This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists... Anything can happen and the models are all over the place. But I’m in the Triad and Brad is bearish on snow there. I don’t want to be on the other side of what he’s thinking. Or apparently the NAM lately (and now HRRR). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Allan says he’s not a fan of the hrrr past 18 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, ADB83 said: Anything can happen and the models are all over the place. But I’m in the Triad and Brad is bearish on snow there. I don’t want to be on the other side of what he’s thinking. Or apparently the NAM lately (and now HRRR) . Yeah at the end of the day Brad is the best metrologist in the Carolinas. I have alot of trust in what he puts out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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