The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

[lilj4425]

Oh baby: 

[Aleksey]

Snow in Winder, GA. Extremely heavy, wish I could upload a video but geez it’s thumping!! Already around 1” and heavy snow still to come in the afternoon!


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

Go Charlotte, it’s ya birthday! 

[lilj4425]

12 minutes ago, KChuck said:

How much snow are you seeing on the ground there? My daughter sent pictures and I thought Greenville would have seen more. She's off Wade Hampton towards Taylor's. 

At least an inch. Hard to tell because it’s blowing around so much.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

I think the coastal is too far east and north. Look at the radar? 100% dry slot over hwy 17 corridor! No signs yet of the precip inching inland. Again..I am thinking of past coastals where this was not a problem at all!

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Not one model all week picked up on there being huge never ending snow hole over north Fulton county.  No snow in Roswell Dunwoody Alpharetta but snowing in every other direction.  

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m not even sure Raleigh gets an inch 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

It’s as if Duke Energy controls the weather now 

[CLTWolf]

Anybody wanna make a call on Wilmington?

[gman]

16 minutes ago, KChuck said:

How much snow are you seeing on the ground there? My daughter sent pictures and I thought Greenville would have seen more. She's off Wade Hampton towards Taylor's. 

I live in Greenville about 2 miles north of Wade Hampton/Taylors. We are up to 3" here and it is still coming down hard. 

[wxdawg10]

9 minutes ago, Regan said:

But where in Raleigh?

east Raleigh. basically all of eastern wake. knightdale, zebulon etc.

 

 

[Ravens94]

Gfs 

[Silver Meteor]

33 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

I just don't understand this coastal? There should be snow back to 17 by now. I remember Christmas 89 the snow came in at wilminton then moved north...allowing eastern NC to immediately get in on the action. Instead moisture is just hugging the coast. (Carteret co) Any idea why the precip is not spreading inland? Is it too early?

I've seen 50 years of nor'easters on the Mid-Atlantic coast ... this thing is a f'kn joke. Low is not coming up from the south (Miller A) it's just forming offshore the Carolina coast (near 200 miles out initially and is only now reforming closer but not close enough) with a miserable QPF shield. Watched it all on the Ventusky website and knew those of us relying on the coastal were going to underperform. NWS has already reduced the snow totals for Greenville, NC by 3" and may not be done yet. UGH. 

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-speed-map/10m-above-ground#p=33.81;-76.82;6&w=0xIAb9A9A

[btownheel]

Coming out of lurking to comment that I feel personally targeted here in Alamance.

I mean, we have an inch and a half here right now. lol at that depiction.


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[D-Money]

29 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's 22.0, anything that does fall will stick.. 

we are some what active, pop in.

You’re still on the peninsula? 

 

[EarlGrey]

I can’t believe Wake gets the shaft on this one. I’ll be in the cliff divers.

[bckhd2]

8 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Not one model all week picked up on there being huge never ending snow hole over north Fulton county.  No snow in Roswell Dunwoody Alpharetta but snowing in every other direction.  

It’s been brutal. It’s sunny at my house here now. Hoping it’ll pick up some this afternoon, a shame to waste the coldest air in 3 years on nothing. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

4 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

I've seen 50 years of nor'easters on the Mid-Atlantic coast ... this thing is a f'kn joke. Low is not coming up from the south (Miller A) it's just forming offshore the Carolina coast (near 200 miles out initially and is only now reforming closer but not close enough) with a miserable QPF shield. Watched it all on the Ventusky website and knew those of us relying on the coastal were going to underperform. NWS has already reduced the snow totals for Greenville, NC by 3" and may not be done yet. UGH. 

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-speed-map/10m-above-ground#p=33.81;-76.82;6&w=0xIAb9A9A

Yeah...I am not sure as of now wilmington gets anything from the coastal! Forecast i heard is for the low to rapidly intensify. We will see. But like u said...the low is not really moving up the coast but out to sea. Not good imo.

[ragtop50]

Per Greg Fishel on Raleigh area 

I have to be very careful the way I word this. As I have stated from the beginning with this storm, it's not a textbook case. There are a lot of unique qualities and idiosyncrasies that are causing a lot of meteorologists, including myself, to tear their hair out! The general consensus is that the higher the resolution of a model, the better the forecast. And a lot of times that's true. It's like taking a picture of houses on the other side of a lake. The lower resolution camera will see 4 houses as 1, while the higher resolution camera will see all 4 houses clearly. But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors! it is true that the high resolution guidance is killing this event for the Triangle. But the actual observations across the state are already contrasting with what these models are showing. Sometimes you have to take a step back and think about the meteorology and not just regurgitate model output. Having said that, could I be wrong with my 4-7? Sure could. But even if that happens, I will not change the way I forecast the weather. If my job was solely to read a map and share those numbers wtih you, how much value do I have? I would hope you would expect me to go beyond that and attempt to add a human element to my forecast. So I'm sticking to my guns. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. With the kind of solid to liquid ratios we're looking at, were not gonna need a ton of precipitation to achieve those totals. Time will tell. Thanks for reading. I'm making this post public so as many people as possible can find out about the product I offer here.

[Silver Meteor]

16 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Would have much preferred a Miller A storm moving up along the coast. For a coastal Low hitting Arctic air this is a joke. 

Greenville, NC was consistently a "jackpot" area with even the NWS forecasting 8-12" ... now what, 2 or 3 inches? Total fail by the coastal Low (unless it tracks WEST all day.) Good grief. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

“But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors!”—Greg Fishel

 

Now, that’s a “bar.”

[SUNYGRAD]

 

HOT of press

[StantonParkHoya]

Idk. Snowing pretty decently in north Raleigh right now.


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[USCG RS]

https://x.com/ContentWxGuy/status/2017622514646602106?s=20

[SEwakenosnowforu]

3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

Per Greg Fishel on Raleigh area 

I have to be very careful the way I word this. As I have stated from the beginning with this storm, it's not a textbook case. There are a lot of unique qualities and idiosyncrasies that are causing a lot of meteorologists, including myself, to tear their hair out! The general consensus is that the higher the resolution of a model, the better the forecast. And a lot of times that's true. It's like taking a picture of houses on the other side of a lake. The lower resolution camera will see 4 houses as 1, while the higher resolution camera will see all 4 houses clearly. But sometimes, as a former colleague of mine once said, higher resolution forecasts lead to more detailed errors! it is true that the high resolution guidance is killing this event for the Triangle. But the actual observations across the state are already contrasting with what these models are showing. Sometimes you have to take a step back and think about the meteorology and not just regurgitate model output. Having said that, could I be wrong with my 4-7? Sure could. But even if that happens, I will not change the way I forecast the weather. If my job was solely to read a map and share those numbers wtih you, how much value do I have? I would hope you would expect me to go beyond that and attempt to add a human element to my forecast. So I'm sticking to my guns. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. With the kind of solid to liquid ratios we're looking at, were not gonna need a ton of precipitation to achieve those totals. Time will tell. Thanks for reading. I'm making this post public so as many people as possible can find out about the product I offer here.

The only thing that really upsets me about this storm is now all of a sudden in the triangle this has turned into a night time storm and a quick one at that. All week I was excited about seeing snow during the day. As usual...life in Southern wake co. Sigh

[Grayman]

[Silver Meteor]

14 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Gfs 

For Eastern NC that looks great. Problem is ... I DON'T BELIEVE IT. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]