The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[StephenBH]

The nam has been so flip-floppy on the last few runs. Crazy to have this degree of uncertainty this close. 

[BornAgain13]

The FV3 is still hanging on!

[ADB83]

I’ve seen Winston-Salem get everything from 2 inches to 13 inches in the last 45 minutes. That’s this storm. What a roller coaster.


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[lilj4425]

Makes a sober person wanna start drinking again.

[btownheel]

You guys are ridiculous.


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[Stormpc]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

HRRR also showed it earlier, and hasn't corrected too much

No doubt. You're right. Something is going to bust badly.

[RaleighNC]

10 minutes ago, wake4est said:

We are cooked.

I will find the computers that host these models and cut their plugs

[StephenBH]

[Snowncanes]

Yeah im not liking these trends tonight. I guess all we can hope for is that they trend somewhere else. It won’t take much to get back in the game. Hopefully the ULL doesn’t cut as far south and the surface low can interact with it sooner.

[Aleksey]

I will say, our of all my years tracking weather and thousands of model runs, I’ve never in my life seen where the entire state of NC, every county and every city, all get accumulating snow. The entire state from N to and E to W is all going to get at least 1” minimum and over 80% of the entire state looking at 3-10”. Absolutely wild! SC has a 70% coverage for the entire state and GA around 60%. Absolutely insane storm lining and up and potential to be overall one of the biggest in the last 15 years for everyone on this forum. I’m headed to bed now, got my alarm set for 6 AM. Cheers y’all, it’s been one heck of a week tracking and can’t wait to see the forum tomorrow! Signing off from Winder, GA! Happy Snow Day!!


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[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

I will say, our of all my years tracking weather and thousands of model runs, I’ve never in my life seen where the entire state of NC, every county and every city, all get accumulating snow. The entire state from N to and E to W is all going to get at least 1” minimum and over 80% of the entire state looking at 3-10”. Absolutely wild! SC has a 70% coverage for the entire state and GA around 60%. Absolutely insane storm lining and up and potential to be overall one of the biggest in the last 15 years for everyone on this forum. I’m headed to bed now, got my alarm set for 6 AM. Cheers y’all, it’s been one heck of a week tracking and can’t wait to see the forum tomorrow! Signing off from Winder, GA! Happy Snow Day!!


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Jan 2022 it happened 

[lilj4425]

So the triad/triangle want the ULL to be faster but the western Carolinas people want it be slower? Is that right? 

[nyr__1994]

We are cooked.

This makes zero sense….it’s currently snowing (with accumulation) in the area that this run is showing zero snow….


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[Aleksey]

Jan 2022 it happened 

For NC? I was in Michigan at that time so I probably didn’t pay attention to the SE.


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[wncsnow]

RRFS 

[wncsnow]

HRW WRF ARW

[NEGA_Dawg]

Are we locked in yet?

[CoolBreeze]

6 minutes ago, nyr__1994 said:

This makes zero sense….it’s currently snowing (with accumulation) in the area that this run is showing zero snow….


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I don't pretend to know what is going on, but if I remember correctly from a earlier post, the ULL is delayed. Since this map is valid for 05Z Sunday (Sat. midnight?), could it be that what we're seeing on this map is the ULL coming through western NC and the coastal low has not geared up yet (waiting for the transfer from the ULL)?

 

Just a thought, I could be totally wrong...

[wncsnow]

HRW WRF NSSL

[WXNewton]

NWS Blend...Best it's been for MBY all day!

[AGardiner87]

1 minute ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

Are we locked in yet?

If you’re near the CLT area we pretty much damn sure are! 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Just now, AGardiner87 said:

If you’re near the CLT area we pretty much damn sure are! 

Don't say that til the snow is on the ground. 

[Isopycnic]

30 minutes ago, btownheel said:

You guys are ridiculous.


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Viva 12/4/00

[AirNelson39]

HRW WRF ARW

That’s the HRF WRF ARW FU RAH

[sarcean]

2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

If you’re near the CLT area we pretty much damn sure are! 

It's about time! Likely biggest snowstorm in 20+ years on the way for Charlotte it looks like 

[NEGA_Dawg]

2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

If you’re near the CLT area we pretty much damn sure are! 

Charlottes in the bullseye.

[Aleksey]

Are we locked in yet?

I’m definitely locked in! 2-4” was my original forecast 3 days ago and I am sticking with that and like the chances of that verifying.


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[DeltaPilot]

Im gonna ask ONE MORE TIME. Please if you are posting models, can you post the map for the entire Southeast. I live just off the left side of all these clown maps being posted, and in this event we are on the western edge of the precip shield. I'd like to SEE how and where the models think some of these bands may set up on the western edges. i know they arent 100% accurate, but seeing that modeled gives us a better feel for the possibility we may see some snow. For the last week, the maps getting posted mostly show SC/NC/VA. There are a bunch of us who are in or just south of ATL and these maps are useless for us. I come here for the expertise, the experience, and the maps/models which I dont have access to. Hope you guys can help a fellow weenie out. TIA!

[AGardiner87]

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Don't say that til the snow is on the ground. 

Every global and short model has us over 6, if not more. I’m loving this! 

[UpStateCAD]

Becoming clear greenville, Pickens, and oconee counties in SC upstate are in a storm minima area; and Charlotte is in the bullseye once again.