The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[KrummWx]

3 minutes ago, phishbfm said:

Issued at 3:16pm...

Wow. Still has Ral at 8". They aren't buying the dry slot at all. This storm is a fucking doozy lmao

[Ravens94]

Rfs

[olafminesaw]

I think the hires NAM has stumbled upon a pretty realistic depiction of how this will play out. ULL max zone, coastal crush zone. Screw zone in between. Maybe cut precip totals by 25-50% overall and call it a day. Screw zone location TBD depending on timing, trough tilt etc.

 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh has 20 inches on the NAM and 0 on the HRRR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.


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Buckle up bro! This is insane! lol

[Tony Sisk]

46 minutes ago, PenguinLover said:

HRRR looking solid for a decent snow in NW ATL.

Ok, I would take that right now for all of SC, But don’t let what is showing in the Triad happen. They deserve in on the action.

[Regan]

And he bumped up here in Wake down. Right as I was getting excited about the Nam. I mean… at least gimme 6. 

[Isopycnic]

I’m riding the NAM till this storm threat dies!

[wxdawg10]

2 pieces of energy are trying to come together by grabbing hold of eachother while spinning into eachother's momentum as they run full speed..

imagining two people doing that seamlessly is hard enough.

imagine massive and turbulant weather systems on a global scale..

 

Would imagine it would be a difficult concept for computer models to grasp fully

[Snowncanes]

HRRR vs NAM soundings for wake county. That low level dry air just makes no sense, where is it coming from? Also look at the massive DGZ (yellow lines on the right) on the NAM. Thats some beautiful heavy snow. 

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1CyEmqZGQn/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Nice write up from former CLT meteorologist Eric Thomas. 

[CentralNC]

Raleigh disco

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[chris624wx]

8 minutes ago, Regan said:

And he bumped up here in Wake down. Right as I was getting excited about the Nam. I mean… at least gimme 6. 

Yeah, not liking the trends for SEVA on the 3K and HRRR. Seems crazy that we could get shut out entirely. 

[odell.moton]

It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm.
 

Don't be confused by then....take a avg of it all that's what i do some say 10 some say 4 ill go with between 5-6

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[PackGrad05]

3K NAM continues the dry slot trend, but fills it in slightly.  2-3" for central NC, including Wake.  

The snow really doesn't start falling until this time tomorrow.  We spend all day waiting...waiting...waiting.

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Raleigh disco

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

They are in the same boat and have no idea what will happen either. Basically be prepared to chase if necessary tomorrow.

[Regan]

Wral’s updated map. No change for me. 3-6 Raleigh. 

[PackGrad05]

EURO only shows 63% chance of Raleigh getting 3 inches.  According to the ensemble, which WRAL states is their exclusive product.

[Regan]

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That's the one from earlier today.  They said they are working on a new one for this evening's news.

No. They just posed this and said it’s an update. Thy moved the 1-3 lower 

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, Regan said:

No. They just posed this and said it’s an update. 

Yep I saw that and deleted my post.  Thanks for posting it!

[Regan]

It’s all good. It really was similar. 

[olafminesaw]

My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think) 

[USCG RS]

41 minutes ago, Regan said:

Grab my hair. 

 

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think) 

I hope you are right, sir.  One thing for sure, somebody gets screwed.

[SECane]

According to the models how is this storm stacking up to the Carolina Crusher from 2000? Is it safe to say this one will be extremely similar?

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think) 

 

I corrected the gradients between the zones 

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, SECane said:

According to the models how is this storm stacking up to the Carolina Crusher from 2000? Is it safe to say this one will be extremely similar?

God, I hope not.  Did not get a flake out of that one in Forsyth county!

[digital snow]

I don't think someone has to get screwed here. More interaction and a low closer to the coast should backfill nicely. Maybe on the NW side of the low, wherever that ends up??

[Aleksey]

Since there’s like no one from GA in here and our GA folks get no love, I’ll make sure to keep y’all posted in intensity and inches, since it will hit here early morning and end by early afternoon. I’ll let you know how it’s going and try and get some pics and videos. Enjoy y’all! I’m still calling for 2-4” in MBY but 4-5” is not out of the question either, as radars are putting heavy banding right over MBY.


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[SEwakenosnowforu]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think) 

Putting wilson/rocky mount area in bull sounds very realistic...they always score in this set up

[MOD]