The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[CoolBreeze]

When will the pbp for the short range models (or map postings) commence here?

[CLTWolf]

Is Wilmington really 20 miles away from possibly doubling their totals?

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said:

When will the pbp for the short range models (or map postings) commence here?

HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

18z HRRR out to 24 so far looking better for snow in ATL area 

[Snowncanes]

I feel like the short range models are all trending slower. This storm was supposed to start in central NC around 6z Saturday but now it’s more like 14-18z. Gives that southern energy more time to ride up the edge of the ULL. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning 

For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad 

[wncsnow]

Slower and west is the theme still good for western carolinas

[thekidcurtis]

sref plumes continue to increase for RDU.

15z - 13.09
09z - 12.5

[Snowncanes]

Just now, thekidcurtis said:

sref plumes continue to increase for RDU.

15z - 13.09
09z - 12.5

That’s a lot of members over 20” now… wow.

[wake4est]

15 minutes ago, wakegrrl said:

That's what they're showing for Apex as well. Makes sense to me.

Move it 1 pixel south or so and its 3-5 Saturday, 3-7 Sat nite

[Droessl]

That's an insane spread of SREF plumes this close to the event

[wncsnow]

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

[wake4est]

Just now, wncsnow said:

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

that doesn't look like a dry slot

[USCG RS]

Just now, Droessl said:

That's an insane spread of SREF plumes this close to the event

That shows how hard it is for the CAMs to pinpoint where these heavier bands are going to set up. 

As many have said... Heavy bands create subsidence which means there may be a rather large disparity in totals over a relatively short distance. That withstanding, as this slows down, I would hedge towards higher amounts due to the fact that it *should* give the LP more time to consolidate and throw back precip. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

that doesn't look like a dry slot

You're right its bigger

[UnionCountyNCWX]

SREF for charlotte went from roughly 5 inches at 9z to 7.25 at 15z 

Both of these numbers are higher if you dont take out the top 2 and bottom two outliers which I always do. 

 

Although not really important, but the outliers that I took out on the 15z were up to 15 inches. 

[ADB83]

It’s more like a U honestly. And the first word begins with F.


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[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

Yikes. That’s not good for Raleigh. 

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

Wow. That would be devastating at this point. 

[UpstateSCBud]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

Forget a cliff diving thread. That would be straight to a grippy sock vacation if you’re stuck between two large areas of snow and get absolutely nothing 

[PackGrad05]

HRRR is a disaster for the triangle.  This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists...  

[ADB83]

I know it’s had a dodgy past, but after the last two storms…if this verifies…maybe pump the brakes on decommissioning the NAM. Because if this is how it plays out, it took literally every other model to school.


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[wxdawg10]

ruh oh

[AirNelson39]

Let’s hope the hrrr is a big pile of trash. How does it go to that extreme in one run? If I recall it busted badily on the high end for last storm so here’s to hoping it’s just trash.

[PackGrad05]

Both the HRRR and the Nam 3K are showing that huge snow void.  

[USCG RS]

HRRR at 32 hrs is a stretch. It's not always wrong, but it's a short range model designed for really 12-18 hrs out at most. 

If that look is real, I would not be surprised to see this be pretty dry forum wide. But based on how the storm is already developing, I would say this is not going to develop and be shunted further East like the HRRR appears to be showing. 

[PenguinLover]

HRRR looking solid for a decent snow in NW ATL.

[ADB83]

HRRR is a disaster for the triangle.  This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists...  

Anything can happen and the models are all over the place. But I’m in the Triad and Brad is bearish on snow there. I don’t want to be on the other side of what he’s thinking. Or apparently the NAM lately (and now HRRR)


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[Regan]

Allan says he’s not a fan of the hrrr past 18 hours

[Divine]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

Anything can happen and the models are all over the place. But I’m in the Triad and Brad is bearish on snow there. I don’t want to be on the other side of what he’s thinking. Or apparently the NAM lately (and now HRRR)


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Yeah at the end of the day Brad is the best metrologist in the Carolinas. I have alot of trust in what he puts out.