The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Regan]

6.4in Raleigh is fine with me after the my break up with Brad. Maybe he will see the euro and others and come back groveling. Men. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This storm gonna test the sanity of triangle folks 

The cliff diving thread is going to be hopping Tommorow morning 

[PackGrad05]

If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking.  He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region.  He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.  

[eyewall]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The cliff diving thread is going to be hopping Tommorow morning 

At this point I am prepping for the screw job and the fact I may have to drive to see it.

[ADB83]

I’ll take 5.6 inches in Greensboro and call it a day. NAM and UK are kind of on an island here. Seems like some of the mets are partial to the NAM solution and then others to the rest of them


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Being a met in NC the last 3 weeks probably the toughest job in America 

[Derived42]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Being a met in NC the last 3 weeks probably the toughest job in America 

You know they're all exhausted. I remember seeing images from last weekend with air mattresses and makeshift sleeping quarters.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Derived42 said:

You know they're all exhausted. I remember seeing images from last weekend with air mattresses and makeshift sleeping quarters.

And looks like they got a quick turnaround again this week 

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said:

He’s always been that way for us


.

It looks AI generated honestly.  Alan always puts out great maps that are very detailed 

[Regan]

Greg Fishel posted something 3 hrs ago and said he feels there’s a widespread 4-7in and more to the east. Considering no shifting. He’s not seemingly freaking out about the dry slot idea and wasn’t last night for sure. Maybe he will post a vlog soon. 

[Snowncanes]

11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking.  He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region.  He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.  

The problem with his thinking is he is looking at 500mb water vapor. Which typically is fine for NC storms, but this one is so cold that 500mb is in the tropopause and most of the snow growth will happen below that. Heres 500mb and 700mb rel humidity and sounding data

[WinstonSalemArlington]

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s better than it was looking. 

Much better 

[Silver Meteor]

Here you can see the vortex forming east of Savannah. Doesn't look all that far out to sea. 

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-gusts-map/1-hour#p=32.38;-78.00;6&w=0xIAb9A9A

[ncstatered21]

7 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

The problem with his thinking is he is looking at 500mb water vapor. Which typically is fine for NC storms, but this one is so cold that 500mb is in the tropopause and most of the snow growth will happen below that. Heres 500mb and 700mb rel humidity and sounding data

Thank you for this comment...I plugged it into Copilot and learned about snow growth zones within the air column. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Blue Ridge]

Engaging full weenie mode

Updated RAH map overlays (as of 12:57 pm) appear to have gotten a bump. My location jumped from 2-4" x2 Saturday day/night to this:

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as zero. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

[USCG RS]

3 hours ago, UpStateCAD said:

quick question for those in the know.   We are seeing some variations in predicted snowfall across the Carolinas, but I am seeing some decent differences in ratios as well.    For example for my area (KGMU) the 12Z nam is showing ratios between 19:1 and 23:1 while the GFS is showing values between 12:1 and 18:1.   Which model tends to do a better job address snow ratios?

CAMS (Short rangers) with the Kuchera method? 

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

So am I supposed to believe the GFS or the 3K NAM? 

Neither....

2 hours ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Question for anyone near upstate sc. When’s the last time we had a significant snow storm where the majority of the snow falls during the day and not at night? Been here 37 years and don’t really recall any. 

Ive only been here a couple years but I've spoken to a few who have been here a few decades.. Apparently no one remembers this. 

1 hour ago, wake4est said:

This is my new work computer wallpaper. 

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Brad Ps latest map won’t make any friends in triangle or triad 

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/2017270520702534102?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Nobody does.

I don't envy your job these past few weeks. 

43 minutes ago, Regan said:

I know it sounds like a relationship… “you’re just gonna throw all the good times away”. Feels manic. 

This feels like it might be your first season on a weather board..... 

[Regan]

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/172GeNykcS/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P’s thinking regarding the potential dry slot. 

[HKY_WX]

1st & Final Call (Parenthesis is potential; Bigger gap means higher boom/bust potential)

Favored Models: Blend of EUROAI & RRFS (Experimental model that will replace NAM this spring)
AVL: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
CLT: 4-8 (High:10/Low:3)
FAY: 6-10 (High:12/Low:4)
GSO: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
GSP: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
GVL: 10-15 (High:20/Low:5) (Likely area to be sweet spot given model trends of last 48 hours. Will get longest duration of coastal banding due to strengthening/consolidating SLP and 850 low)
HKY: 3-6 (High:10/Low:3) (Foothills away from the escarpment will have some additional forcing due to upslope. Also lee trough/frontogenesis forcing due to thermal gradient)
ILM: 4-8 (High:12/Low:4)
RDU: 4-8 (High:12/Low:1) (Area of higher boom/bust potential due to dry air infiltration from parent HP and coastal energy transfer. The Triangle will also be close to the edge of the coastal death band. Bust potential is likely being overdone but I am putting it in as models have shown it)
VAB: 4-8 (High:12/Low:2)

[Regan]

2 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/172GeNykcS/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P’s thinking regarding the potential dry slot. 

I saw it… but I don’t see this idea heavily represented anywhere trustworthy except from him. The idea being 1-3 and he seems locked in. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

1st & Final Call (Parenthesis is potential; Bigger gap means higher boom/bust potential)

Favored Models: Blend of EUROAI & RRFS (Experimental model that will replace NAM this spring)
AVL: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
CLT: 4-8 (High:10/Low:3)
FAY: 6-10 (High:12/Low:4)
GSO: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
GSP: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2)
GVL: 10-15 (High:20/Low:5) (Likely area to be sweet spot given model trends of last 48 hours. Will get longest duration of coastal banding due to strengthening/consolidating SLP and 850 low)
HKY: 3-6 (High:10/Low:3) (Foothills away from the escarpment will have some additional forcing due to upslope. Also lee trough/frontogenesis forcing due to thermal gradient)
ILM: 4-8 (High:12/Low:4)
RDU: 4-8 (High:12/Low:1) (Area of higher boom/bust potential due to dry air infiltration from parent HP and coastal energy transfer. The Triangle will also be close to the edge of the coastal death band. Bust potential is likely being overdone but I am putting it in as models have shown it)
VAB: 4-8 (High:12/Low:2)

What is your call for up this way man? 

[PeeDeeWx]

27 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

The problem with his thinking is he is looking at 500mb water vapor. Which typically is fine for NC storms, but this one is so cold that 500mb is in the tropopause and most of the snow growth will happen below that. Heres 500mb and 700mb rel humidity and sounding data

Can you dumb this down for me? Are you basically saying that the dry air shouldn’t be as egregious because it’s so cold the snow will form below it?? Thanks!

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, AGardiner87 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/172GeNykcS/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Brad P’s thinking regarding the potential dry slot. 

To an extent I see what he means, but unless this storm really gets shunted East, I don't see what he's saying. This storm is exploding and back building and I personally think it will build farther back north and west than what he's concerned about.

[Louise]

45 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking.  He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region.  He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.  

Yes, watched him. Seems he thinking our area, just outside west of Spex, is dry slotted for a lot of this event. Hope he’s wrong.

[HKY_WX]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What is your call for up this way man? 

I'd say 3 to 6 most likely.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

I'd say 3 to 6 most likely.

You have any idea of where that dry slot is gonna set up? I would think the 3K would correct at 18z?

[ncstatered21]

6 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Can you dumb this down for me? Are you basically saying that the dry air shouldn’t be as egregious because it’s so cold the snow will form below it?? Thanks!

I talked to Copilot about this...basically...the snow growth happens more in the 700 MB zone rather than the 500 MB zone. So just because the 500 MB zone is dry doesn't mean snow doesn't form due to "dryness" since the 700 MB zone (lower) is wetter.

[tarheelwx]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

I'd say 3 to 6 most likely.

Your forecast overall seems about right.  Hopefully we can go on the upper end or a little higher.  

TW

[Snowncanes]

2 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Can you dumb this down for me? Are you basically saying that the dry air shouldn’t be as egregious because it’s so cold the snow will form below it?? Thanks!

Basically snow grows in a column of air that is roughly -18C to -11C. You need a saturated parcel of air within this temperature range to achieve snow growth. 500mb is a changing height above ground level. Colder air the height is lower, warmer air it’s higher.  The maps spit out relative humidity for these mb levels (500,700,850,925). Right now our snow growth will happen mainly below 600mb based on sounding data which is unusual for our area. Normally that growth can start at 500mb. But since the air is so dense and cold that growth area starts lower. 
 

https://www.weatherhawks.com/snow-dynamics/

this is an article that I think helps describe snow growth pretty good as well if im still not making much sense haha.