The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Orange county]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Mike Maze put out a PM update.  He said snow total probabilities are dropping off on the Euro.    Two bullseyes setting up.

Well they have been consistent today

[Regan]

Kat, with Mike in the background said 9min ago they are sticking to 3-6 but have considered bumping it up. Haven’t decided yet. They are holding. Numbers have NOT gone down on their forecast since this morning. They have only upped some areas. 
 

on same topic, WRAL is notorious for saying the euro shows things it doesn’t. They are also regularly guilty of mixed messaging minute by minute and between social media accounts as far as verbal comments. 

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON gets award for most improved run of the day 

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/1Zzhhs4Wud/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

How the south does it! 

 

[chris624wx]

10 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Your area got nailed last February too, congrats!  How rare are 12-inch snowfalls in back-to-back years there?  We've gone 10 years now without one in the DC/Balt region.

Going to say pretty rare. I only moved here in 2020 so it was definitely the most I'd seen in one storm! Originally from Georgia!

[UpstateSCBud]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON gets award for most improved run of the day 

Us in the GSP crowd disagree with that statement 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Going to say pretty rare. I only moved here in 2020 so it was definitely the most I'd seen in one storm! Originally from Georgia!

Norfolk gets big storms quite often. They get foot 10-12" plus storms about every 5-7 years recently. 2010, 2018, 2025, now this year possibly too. 

[btownheel]

Mike Maze put out a PM update.  He said snow total probabilities are dropping off on the Euro.    Two bullseyes setting up.

He seems to add extremely little value. We can all read the Euro outputs as well.


.

[Ravens94]

[Snowncanes]

WPC put out a great discussion. A little long to quote so here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[Grayman]

3 minutes ago, btownheel said:

He seems to add extremely little value. We can all read the Euro outputs as well.


.

He is awful. Bring back the fish. They prefect their job is take model output and turn it into a forecast. Like you said he just reads the Euro output 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Someone mentioned it a minute ago, but the OBX are about to get smoked. Not sure if thermals are good for snow (I haven't looked) but man gonna be a good storm down there.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

WPC put out a great discussion. A little long to quote so here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Imma read the rest when I have time, but this is the first thundersnow ive heard mentioned. 

[wncsnow]

118 members strong! Glad to see the site popping! 

[KChuck]

39 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Mine says 2:49am

Mine also 

[Ravens94]

Gfs is changing in the NE every run. This run may cut off faster also.

[Regan]

Ok. Rah just posted their slides and said no real change from AM thoughts. Sam graphics. Still going with the 2:49AM thoughts too. Only added some could see less. But broad brush is 8-10in. 
 

they clearly aren’t ready to slice NC into 3 parts yet. Per what Mike Maze keeps saying the euro suggests. 

[Ravens94]

This should be a good run !

 

Energy is starting to consolidate near the closed low

[Sickman]

I think I'm more curious to see how the people down here react to what would be barely considered a moderate storm on Long Island.  

[Ravens94]

Going to be a good hit for mostly all.

[scottk]

Forecast for Florence, SC has added freezing rain/mix to the conversation, I haven’t seen that suggested as a possibility anywhere else…

[olafminesaw]

Feels like we're kinda back where we started 24 hours ago, just a bit south and without the crazy GFS outlier

[Grayman]

13 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

WPC put out a great discussion. A little long to quote so here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Good read. Man they seem pretty confident. 

[CLTWolf]

WPC put out a great discussion. A little long to quote so here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

“Wilmington, NC has at least a 50% chance of receiving >12" of snow.”

[Ravens94]

[senc30]

6 minutes ago, Sickman said:

I think I'm more curious to see how the people down here react to what would be barely considered a moderate storm on Long Island.  

Probably the same way long island reacts to a glorified thunderstorm with a name. Haha

[eyewall]

[scgirl]

5 hours ago, DTP said:

And unfortunately this is somewhat of a zero-sum game given the wide range of geography in this subforum

Hope everyone gets something....nice to see some flakes (kid in me), but tbh this kinda f's up my program development-wise bc of construction delays.....can't rough grade for survey pins, or prep for a slab pour/underslab plumbing (or pour the slab) with snow on the ground, or the subsequent mud after it melts.....plus pushes sub crews out with the backlog.....I would gladly donate whatever we get around CLT to some of the Raleigh/Southside VA peeps- it can snow all it wants to after I get the slabs down and 3 full afternoons above 70F into the cure lol

I work at a surety bond agency in your area so my clients are contractors and completely understand.  This kind of thing really messes with a project schedule.  Not to mention bids being postponed and having to reissue updated bonds 

[Sickman]

1 minute ago, senc30 said:

Probably the same way long island reacts to a glorified thunderstorm with a name. Haha

Touche!

[UpstateSCBud]

7.3 sitting over my home in Clinton,SC. Huge run for the board