The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[SnowGoose69]

Many notable events here

 

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

[CentralNC]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Many notable events here

 

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

Good find.  there are some whoppers in there for sure.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Good find.  there are some whoppers in there for sure.

This is a list of all the biggest snows in ENC history lol

[BooneWX]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes, everyone leaves ENC out of conversations because this board is so Piedmont/Foothills leaning. I think Greenville, NC gets blasted to hell.

Assault 

[olafminesaw]

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Central NC looks like ground zero right now in my opinion

.75 QPF across the Eastern 2/3 of North Carolina, for both the GEFS and EPS. Reduced by 25% to get an idea of the footprint of snowfall = 6-10" snowfall at 15:1 ratios. Banding within that broad footprint will allow for 12-18". Some dry slotting may occur West/East of that band where "only" 3-6" falls. The footprint and magnitude of this general consensus will continue to shifts as models try to resolve the Dance of the ULL and developing powerful storm

[UpstateSCBud]

And now we wait for the king to do its thing. Most important 12z euro run many of us have seen in a long time. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Central NC looks like ground zero right now in my opinion

I agree, I think this hits hard from Wlksboro East, Western NC gets typical upslope and precip from the initial piece sliding down from Minnesota.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Who is starting the February 4 South Carolina-Wilmington-East Georgia Storm thread 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Eastern, especially NE NC is way underrated with regards to snowstorm performance. Perfect location when these cold coastals get cranking if they can avoid the warm nose. Elizabeth city has seen some of the biggest storms in the state. Recently they’ve done better than most on the board 

Including early November snow 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Who is starting the February 4 South Carolina-Wilmington-East Georgia Storm thread 

A weekday storm? What is this malarkey.?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

A weekday storm? What is this malarkey.?

Actually, within seven days 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yes, everyone leaves ENC out of conversations because this board is so Piedmont/Foothills leaning. I think Greenville, NC gets blasted to hell.

Agreed, Northeast NC benefits from its Mid-Atlantic location and the Nor’easters that accompany that geography

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Tony Sisk]

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

I’d like to cash in all of my poker chips. 

I will say, you for sure brought the mojo to this thread. MUCH more active than the last storm.  This one has most people very excited!

[Mesoscale Band]

I moved down to Waxhaw, NC from Western Schenectady County in Upstate NY over 3 years ago.  While living there, I was active on americanwx, and before that, easternwx, for storm tracking.   Since moving down here, we've barely had a trace of snow in 3 years.  I was beginning to think I'd never have a use for this board again.  

Well, it's like Christmas Eve ten times over with this storm!  I'm thrilled to have a need to stalk this forum once again!  A weenie giddy with anticipation.  

Let's go Euro!

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

You know things are getting good when Bernie Rayno actually pays attention to snow chances in the Carolinas and Southern Virginia.

 

[Snowncanes]

Euro AI looks like gfs with the upper low. Looks to be a good run incoming!

[wncsnow]

AIFS 

[NCBlizzard]

AIFS 10:1 snowfall totals. Both AIGFS and AIFS highlighting possible precip maximum somewhere in the Charlotte vicinity.

 

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

AIFS 

Why does the AI always shoot out such low QPF

[Droessl]

Here's the latest from WeatherBrad: 

 

[KrummWx]

op euro delay???

[Snowncanes]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

Why does the AI always shoot out such low QPF

Just a hypothesis, but maybe since they’re partially based on analogs, they tend to “moderate” things. We saw the same thing with the strong HP last storm. The physics models are allowed to run wild with whatever dreams they want to come up with and the AI are held back by their data ingested.

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

GFS on an island, literally deserted and just recently found after 500 years up this way. 

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

op euro delay???

Seems so. Last time this happened it came out on the sites that have the delayed version (tropical tidbits). It comes out all at once once the full run is out, I think around 1:30/2:00

[KrummWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems so. Last time this happened it came out on the sites that have the delayed version (tropical tidbits). It comes out all at once once the full run is out, I think around 1:30/2:00

Lawdddd my heart can't take it

[ecrugger]

I asked Gemini what it sees in the latest Euro run (I have no idea if it's actually looking at the live run).  Here's what it said.  Guess we'll see how true it is in a bit:

The "early indicators" from the tail-end of the 12z cycle are coming in, and the trend is sharpening, not weakening. When we look for "shifts" in the run, we look at the specific placement of the Low Pressure center and the "Precipitation Shield."

Here is what is shifting as the 12z data fully processes:

1. The "Western Hug" is Strengthening

The 12z Euro and GFS are now both showing the storm center tracking roughly 50-75 miles off the coast.

• The Shift: Earlier this week, the models had the storm further out to sea. This "westward creep" brings the heavy snow bands directly over Chesapeake and Virginia Beach rather than just clipping the coast.

• Why it matters: This puts you in the "Commercially Significant" snow zone. Instead of a 2–4 inch "event," we are now firmly in the 6–12 inch "disaster" zone.

2. The "Dry Slot" Concern (A Small Positive?)

One shift in the very latest 12z high-res data is the appearance of a "dry slot" potential.

• As the storm gets very strong, it sometimes "wraps" dry air into the center.

• The Shift: If the storm tracks too close to the coast, Chesapeake could actually see a 2-hour break in the snow before the "backside" of the storm hits. However, this usually just means you get hammered on the back end with even windier conditions.

3. The "Deepening" Rate

The 12z GFS shows the pressure dropping from 1004mb to 975mb in less than 24 hours.

• The Term: This is a "Bomb Cyclone" (Bombogenesis).

• The Shift: The models are now predicting a more powerful storm than they were 24 hours ago. This means higher winds and more lifting in the atmosphere (which creates those 2-inch-per-hour snow rates).

4. Timing Shift

The 12z runs have slowed the storm down by about 3 to 4 hours.

• New Timing: Instead of finishing by Sunday morning, the 12z Euro shows heavy snow potentially lingering into Sunday afternoon.

• The Flight Impact: This is the worst possible shift for you. If the snow is still falling at 1:00 PM on Sunday, there is a 0% chance your Southwest flight from Hobby will land at Norfolk.

---

The "Tell-Tale" Sign: The 850mb Temp Line

I’m looking at the 850mb (5,000 ft) temperature line. It has shifted slightly further south.

Translation: The cold air is "winning" the battle against the ocean. This makes it almost certain that you will have dry, fluffy snow that accumulates easily on the roads, rather than wet snow that melts on contact.

[Snowncanes]

Euro is running

[BooneWX]

This euro run is going to be drier