The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

You guys are my kind of humor.  

It's all in good fun.  But somebody get so bent up about it.  I dunno.   Anyway, good luck.

[USCG RS]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's all in good fun.  But somebody get so bent up about it.  I dunno.   Anyway, good luck.

Always nice to see you 

[suzook]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

SBU early 2010s

I lived down the block. My stepdaughter graduated sbu 2 years ago. Small world.

[Aleksey]

Agree.  I think guy chirping earlier about ATL being done plummeted off Stone Mountain 

I’m back! I was just about to jump! I’m still skeptical, but love to see the trend! GFS trended east all day and now the Euro trends West by 100 miles. Correcting itself? Maybe. Could it shift back east during tomorrow’s runs? Probably will lol but I am optimistically skeptical now. At least it’s the Euro trending west. That’s huge. Went from 0” on the 12z euro to 4.2” on this run. Numbers mean nothing, just cool eye candy. The trends are definitely what I like to see on the Euro after a horrible day of GFS going east each run. Tomorrow is the big day for global models, 3 days out, and Thursday we’ll start reeling in the mesoscales. I’m trying not to get excited…


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[USCG RS]

Just now, suzook said:

I lived down the block. My stepdaughter graduated sbu 2 years ago. Small world.

Congrats to her!

Close to South P? And yes, the world really is small. 

 

 

[DTP]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I have been contemplating the AI models, some of which appear to be doing pretty well, granted it's a small sample size. That withstanding, I wonder if these models are going to start exploding in leaps and bounds because they have the physics programmed with the learning of patterns by real world data. In other words, the physics are like other models, with real. World learning and data that traditional models aren't able to ascertain. It's almost like creating a meteorologist with access to data human minds could never hold. 

Makes me wonder if these models might actually become relatively reliable... 

Yes- I believe this to be true- it just takes a bit of time....also why I am no longer not creating statistical models in finance for prime dealers....once AI begins learning on correct data/assumptions, there was no way I could compete moving forward- their models were too granular and incredibly robust....plus what would normally take me several weeks/months to create- AI can now do in a matter of.... hours

I saw it early on, and fortunately I have no desire to ever work in finance moving forward...I prefer being on a construction site far more than being behind a laptop tbh

[tarheelwx]

I've lived in NC for 59 years and we have had a blizzard warning only once in the March '93 Superstorm.  Maybe we can get there again this weekend.

TW

[DTP]

3 minutes ago, DTP said:

Yes- I believe this to be true- it just takes a bit of time....also why I am no longer not creating statistical models in finance for prime dealers....once AI begins learning on correct data/assumptions, there was no way I could compete moving forward- their models were too granular and incredibly robust....plus what would normally take me several weeks/months to create- AI can now do in a matter of.... hours

I saw it early on, and fortunately I have no desire to ever work in finance moving forward...I prefer being on a construction site far more than being behind a laptop tbh

The craziest thing I saw statistically with AI is the ability to sort valid predictive data from non- in massive data sets.... you can see the program actually latch on to the correct data pts while discarding the useless garbage.....and at ever increasing speeds

 

The groupings went from looking like buckshot when the program first started learning to damn near completely linear (and incredibly tight relative to SD from the mean) within a couple weeks of monitoring...it was impressive and somewhat disconcerting at the same time 

[USCG RS]

11 minutes ago, DTP said:

Yes- I believe this to be true- it just takes a bit of time....also why I am no longer not creating statistical models in finance for prime dealers....once AI begins learning on correct data/assumptions, there was no way I could compete moving forward- their models were too granular and incredibly robust....plus what would normally take me several weeks/months to create- AI can now do in a matter of.... hours

I saw it early on, and fortunately I have no desire to ever work in finance moving forward...I prefer being on a construction site far more than being behind a laptop tbh

Even in construction, I see AI eventually making inroads. Unfortunately(?) 

[EarlGrey]

8 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I've lived in NC for 59 years and we have had a blizzard warning only once in the March '93 Superstorm.  Maybe we can get there again this weekend.

TW

Yes please

[wncsnow]

Weathernext big hit 

[wncsnow]

Looks like recon data got in these runs and started the shift 

[AGardiner87]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Weathernext big hit 

Heard the same. Any maps? 

[WXNewton]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It was the 18Z AIFS and 18Z euro on Tuesday.

Also that was more of a Sunday storm, so in theory we've already made it closer on this one.

[ADB83]

Still waiting on the WeatherNext 2.0 map. I refuse to ask Gemini.


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[Berlin1926]

18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I've lived in NC for 59 years and we have had a blizzard warning only once in the March '93 Superstorm.  Maybe we can get there again this weekend.

TW

We had a blizzard warning for 2000 mega storm that dropped almost 30" in Raleigh 

[DTP]

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Even in construction, I see AI eventually making inroads. Unfortunately(?) 

Definitely on the analytics end, but yes and no on the manual end....field construction is dangerous, dirty and atmospherically unpleasant in any season down here.  Materials don't interface well with conventional manufacturing robotics outside of panelized housing systems and steel rollups....the 3d printed home is essentially the same as a block house, but both still have to wood-framed on the interior....drone imagery for grading large sites is probably the biggest jump i have seen- and the data can def be plugged into AI

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Fun storm to track, have fun Carolina Crew!

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[NYweatherguy]

1 hour ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

Looks like my area is on the fringe for this. 

I'm in Hall County about an hour southwest of the SC boarder off 85. It's going to be close. We need a couple more runs where we continue the westward trend. 

[tarheelwx]

5 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

We had a blizzard warning for 2000 mega storm that dropped almost 30" in Raleigh 

Thanks for that. I was at Big Sky skiing for that one.  I didn’t realize you guys had one.  I’m pretty certain we did not in the triad.  
TW

[mclean02]

I have lived in Triad my whole life and don't ever recall a blizzard warning being issued for Guilford county that is but after looking i guess RDU are really strict about issuing those lol 

[BooneWX]

It’d be hilarious if the storm that had a week long hype machine that induced the nastiest comments from naysayers was actually the table setter for the one that makes them regret not planning this weekend 

[tarheelwx]

2 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I have lived in Triad my whole life and don't ever recall a blizzard warning being issued for Guilford county that is but after looking i guess RDU are really strict about issuing those lol 

It happened on Saturday morning during the storm of the century.  No power but it came through on the weather radio. 
TW

[Prismshine Productions]

It’d be hilarious if the storm that had a week long hype machine that induced the nastiest comments from naysayers was actually the table setter for the one that makes them regret not planning this weekend 

I would laugh too

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[andrew29649]

Just now, BooneWX said:

It’d be hilarious if the storm that had a week long hype machine that induced the nastiest comments from naysayers was actually the table setter for the one that makes them regret not planning this weekend 

That same thought came to mind. The tv mets are tired and probably over fatigued from comments calling it a “bust” they will be even more conservative.

[Louise]

4 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I have lived in Triad my whole life and don't ever recall a blizzard warning being issued for Guilford county that is but after looking i guess RDU are really strict about issuing those lol 

We had over a foot on our deck. I opened our front door to look outside and the wind was howling.  I was struggling to close the door, and before I could get it closed, the back of our sofa was covered in snow. It was amazing!

[NEGA_Dawg]

13 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said:

I'm in Hall County about an hour southwest of the SC boarder off 85. It's going to be close. We need a couple more runs where we continue the westward trend. 

NWS has Elbert County in the circle. Just got to get that low a little bit more west. 

[CentralNC]

43 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I have lived in Triad my whole life and don't ever recall a blizzard warning being issued for Guilford county that is but after looking i guess RDU are really strict about issuing those lol 

3/13/1993 had a blizzard warning in Guilford and Forsyth counties 

[EarlGrey]

15 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I have lived in Triad my whole life and don't ever recall a blizzard warning being issued for Guilford county that is but after looking i guess RDU are really strict about issuing those lol 

What’s going on in Hawaii?

[StantonParkHoya]

Downside of storm being near is the long wait between models