BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just wow at the Euro and the EPS supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6z icon looked like it was about to deliver at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I know it’s allegedly only about five days away, but I can’t get over there is already a new event thread. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Mods, can we pin this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 650 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 Key message 4: Small possibility of snow next weekend with development of coastal low pressure to our east or southeast. If snow were to fall, it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to the cold temperatures prior to onset. The latest models are coming into a little better agreement on a sharp vort lobe carving a deep trough over the Southeast late Friday into Saturday. This wave may provide energy to induce cyclogenesis somewhere near the South Atlantic Coast. The low looks to likely form offshore the Carolina Coast, resulting in largely dry conditions for our area. There still could be some brief NW flow snow shower activity with the passing upper trough, but confidence of any precip east of the mountains remains low. A handful of ensemble members from each of the GEFS/EC/GEPS and the AI ensembles all have some QPF over our Piedmont with a possible precip shield extending NW of the coastal low. The air mass in place would be so cold, that the most likely precip type would be all snow for our area. The latest NBM PoPs are still only in the 10-20% range Friday night thru Saturday. But this situation bears watching, as such cold temps ahead of this system would make even light snow stick to roads more than usual, and lead to slippery conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 You guys are nuts! I am not falling for this shit! I am out! Good bye! 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Who am I kidding? I am back! 2 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6z EPS increases totals from 00z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 06z GFS is a little east but 06z Euro/Euro AI and EPS are big hits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The euro is essentially pushing the block coming into the NE out of the way far more then all the other guidance and that's whats leading to a more inland track. All the other guidance has a stronger block and a more substantial snow for east of 95. The differences at 500 between the GFS/CMC and Euro are pretty significant. The Euro wants to phase much quicker then other guidance aswell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 GFS was a miss east but was a step in the right direction at H5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverSnowsLCSC Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Screw it, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. Give us good news lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. I fear the late phase could be the nail in the coffin on this one. Would be hard to stomach with the too early phase this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Do you have the link for weathernext model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Give us good news lol I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, BooneWX said: I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. The Euro AI was a beast with this last storm as well and its agreeing with the Euro for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Looks like probably a minor or even moderate event is on the table for most of NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. New Weather next trended west brother 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: New Weather next trended west brother You got a screenshot? I must’ve seen some conflicting info. I saw a 4 run trend and it looked well off the coast but I thought I had seen a look like you’re describing. I might just get weathervista for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Way too early for this. First call: High shear low cape thunderstorm event 3 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Tis the season fellas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Could be worse! We should have a little more wiggle room left with that model before I’d say it locks in tomorrow. Overall, I’d like to see the progression across the board to keep trending towards the classic cut off bowling ball look. We’re close on many models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, suzook said: You guys are nuts! I am not falling for this shit! I am out! Good bye! Gluttons for punishment!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Trend gif below for the euro. Good trends but again, let's hope it doesnt go too much in this direction or it will trend too warm for eastern NC. Will have to watch it. Classic polar jet wave diving down in behind the departing cutoff over new England. Great setup for a snowstorm (especially over the mid atlantic/new england). This is more of a snow or rain setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I hope to enjoy watching the progress on this one and most of the modeling keeps it sane for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Players on the field here are much simpler. Polar jet wave diving south and phasing with STJ wave coming into the west coast this week. The icestorm pretty much locked in IMO about 48 hours out once all the waves were close to the US. So I would wait until Wednesday before getting too excited. In the meantime, enjoy your hits of model crack 4 times per day. Scenarios: BOOM: This setup works out like the Christmas storm 2009 and we have a perfect phase BUST: Nothing nada zilch. Cloudy day on Saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro AI Ensemble Mean is a big hit and this is only 10:1. Ratios would be much higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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