The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

Just wow at the Euro and the EPS supports it. 

[BornAgain13]

6z icon looked like it was about to deliver at the end of its run

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I know it’s allegedly only about five days away, but I can’t get over there is already a new event thread. 

[CentralNC]

Mods, can we pin this?

[strongwxnc]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

 

Key message 4: Small possibility of snow next weekend with development
of coastal low pressure to our east or southeast. If snow were to
fall, it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to
the cold temperatures prior to onset.

The latest models are coming into a little better agreement on
a sharp vort lobe carving a deep trough over the Southeast late
Friday into Saturday. This wave may provide energy to induce
cyclogenesis somewhere near the South Atlantic Coast. The low
looks to likely form offshore the Carolina Coast, resulting in
largely dry conditions for our area. There still could be some
brief NW flow snow shower activity with the passing upper trough,
but confidence of any precip east of the mountains remains low. A
handful of ensemble members from each of the GEFS/EC/GEPS and the
AI ensembles all have some QPF over our Piedmont with a possible
precip shield extending NW of the coastal low. The air mass in place
would be so cold, that the most likely precip type would be all
snow for our area. The latest NBM PoPs are still only in the 10-20%
range Friday night thru Saturday. But this situation bears watching,
as such cold temps ahead of this system would make even light snow
stick to roads more than usual, and lead to slippery conditions

[suzook]

You guys are nuts! I am not falling for this shit! I am out! Good bye!

[suzook]

Who am I kidding? I am back!

[WXNewton]

6z EPS increases totals from 00z

[BornAgain13]

06z GFS is a little east but 06z Euro/Euro AI and EPS are big hits

[Ravens94]

The euro is essentially pushing the block coming into the NE out of the way far more then all the other guidance and that's whats leading to a more inland track. All the other guidance has a stronger block and a more substantial snow for east of 95.  The differences at 500 between the GFS/CMC and Euro are pretty significant. The Euro wants to phase much quicker then other guidance aswell.

[BornAgain13]

GFS was a miss east but was a step in the right direction at H5

[neverSnowsLCSC]

Fuck it, I'm in.

[BooneWX]

Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. 

Give us good news lol 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Weathernext is less than enthused. It’s so suppressed. 

I fear the late phase could be the nail in the coffin on this one. Would be hard to stomach with the too early phase this weekend

[Shad]

Do you have the link for weathernext model


.

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Give us good news lol 

I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, BooneWX said:

I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. 

The Euro AI was a beast with this last storm as well and its agreeing with the Euro for now

[SUNYGRAD]

Looks like probably a minor or even moderate event is on the table for most of NC.  

[wncsnow]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I wish I could! I love these pretty snow maps from the euro but I can’t get sucked in to a model that shifted 400 miles at 18z Wednesday night and changed the 500mb look every cycle. Weathernext was showing our end result on Monday of last week. Everyone thought it was out to lunch - it was actually in the back making a beef Wellington. 

New Weather next trended west brother 

[BooneWX]

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

New Weather next trended west brother 

You got a screenshot? I must’ve seen some conflicting info. I saw a 4 run trend and it looked well off the coast but I thought I had seen a look like you’re describing. I might just get weathervista for a week. 

[eyewall]

Way too early for this. 

First call: High shear low cape thunderstorm event

[Met1985]

Tis the season fellas.

[wncsnow]

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Could be worse! We should have a little more wiggle room left with that model before I’d say it locks in tomorrow.

 

Overall, I’d like to see the progression across the board to keep trending towards the classic cut off bowling ball look. We’re close on many models. 

[gman]

1 hour ago, neverSnowsLCSC said:

Fuck it, I'm in.

This is a family friendly forum. Please, for the sake of all that is good, refrain from using filthy language. Thank you. 

[blueheels2]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

You guys are nuts! I am not falling for this shit! I am out! Good bye!

Gluttons for punishment!!

[HKY_WX]

Trend gif below for the euro. Good trends but again, let's hope it doesnt go too much in this direction or it will trend too warm for eastern NC. Will have to watch it.

Classic polar jet wave diving down in behind the departing cutoff over new England. Great setup for a snowstorm (especially over the mid atlantic/new england). This is more of a snow or rain setup.

[SUNYGRAD]

I hope to enjoy watching the progress on this one  and most of the modeling keeps it sane for everyone.  

[HKY_WX]

Players on the field here are much simpler. Polar jet wave diving south and phasing with STJ wave coming into the west coast this week. The icestorm pretty much locked in IMO about 48 hours out once all the waves were close to the US. So I would wait until Wednesday before getting too excited. In the meantime, enjoy your hits of model crack 4 times per day. 

Scenarios:

BOOM: This setup works out like the Christmas storm 2009 and we have a perfect phase

BUST: Nothing nada zilch. Cloudy day on Saturday