February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[CAPE]

I like the advertised surface look leading in with HP over the GLs into SE Canada and low pressure off the Maritimes. No real block though so everything is on the move.

[winter_warlock]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For the upcoming weekend threat, the majority of the members on the GEFS have a low tracking into the OV, then coastal transfer- but exactly where is a crapshoot. Some right over us, some further north, some along the NC coast. Plenty of spread. All the snow maps tell you at this point is that it is possible for it to snow somewhere in the region.

Mixed bag on the EPS but a low moving across the south and off the SE coast is most prominent.

 Low across the south and off the SE coast would be what we want  at this point in time, but the way storms are playing out this winter ,   anything is possible. Probably really won't have any handle on a real track till about Wednesday... At the earliest IMO

[stormy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You all have been paying more attention to this than I, but it seems there's an interesting difference between the physics-based models and the AI models in the overnight runs.  Physics-models all have a weak northern stream shortwave pop a low that gives some snow to VA (again...) around Friday.  Then they sort of shred the Baja low and don't bring it out coherently.  AI models don't have that weak northern stream s/w that gives VA snow on Friday and bring the Baja low out more coherently, especially Euro AI.  

Thanks for this coherent explanation!  It is appreciated. 

[VBweather]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No but thanks for trying 

 

Mind telling where you got this cool chart? Thanks in advance.

[jayyy]

All of the uncertainty aside on next weekends storm potential, models are once again clawing back the extent of an advertised warmup as we get closer

[VBweather]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EURO

Trying to accumulate bookmarks of great weather model sites. Mind telling me how you found this and the site? Thanks in advance. msachsmas9n

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, msachsmas9n said:

Mind telling where you got this cool chart? Thanks in advance.

Weather bell

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, jayyy said:

All of the uncertainty aside on next weekends storm potential, models are once again clawing back the extent of an advertised warmup as we get closer

It’ll be sometime in March before we finally get a sustained warmup at this rate. Maybe even April.

[VBweather]

12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Weather bell

Thanks!

[winter_warlock]

23 minutes ago, msachsmas9n said:

Thanks!

Yw bro

[Silver Meteor]

10 hours ago, bncho said:

Extremely similar to 18z actually considering the lead time

Classic DC area winter storm. Seen it countless times. 

[mitchnick]

GfsAI is a warm frontal passage as slp heads to the Lakes. Lol

Edit: looks like some snow before any change

[snowfan]

Some areas S and W of DC might torch on Tue or Wed.

[winter_warlock]

Storm is still 7 days out models are gonna shift wildly many times

 I would be reading anything Into any model outlook till about Wednesday or Thursday. I mean if u all look at the storms we've had,.. modeling couldn't even get it right within 48  hours lol. So I would take any model with a grain of salt for next weekend ( 7 days out) 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Some areas S and W of DC might torch on Tue or Wed.

 Highs in 40s isn't exactly a torch. It's normal for early February 

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Highs in 40s isn't exactly a torch. It's normal for early February 

Guidance is showing possibility some areas get into the mid 50s and that may be conservative.

[Weather Will]

FWIW, WB 12Z ICON takes both of the upcoming weekend waves to the south.

 

[Ji]

Gfs is going from nothing to possibly a cutter

[Ji]

If you look at the last 6 runs of the gfs….it should probably be retired

[Berlin1926]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

FWIW, WB 12Z ICON takes the upcoming weekend wave to the south.

But still Mid-Atlantic region if not DC.

[Ji]

Please stop posting. Who are you ?

[VBweather]

Just now, Ji said:

Please stop posting. Who are you ?  Relax...I'm a newbee just trying to figure out how to post pictures. It's complicated and there aren't any directions I can find anywhere.

 

[mitchnick]

Cape will be happy to see his 2/20 Blizzard on the GfsAI.

Edit: favors northern areas but still a ton of snow based on TT maps

[Ji]

 

You are posting a senseless picture in a long range thread

[Ji]

Cape will be happy to see his 2/20 Blizzard on the GfsAI.
Edit: favors northern areas but still a ton of snow based on TT maps

The model is beyond useless. Al my ass

[Weather Will]

I don't know what to say about the WB 12Z GFS except with the wild swings it is a work in progress; wait for the GEFS.  Below is next Sunday 1pm compared to 6Z.

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

If you look at the last 6 runs of the gfs….it should probably be retired

 Yeah it's a wild swing from one extreme to another every run. It's horrible any more

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

But still Mid-Atlantic region if not DC.

 It's not really mid Atlantic  proper.. it's more the southern extreme part of mid Atlantic.. more towards Southern half of USA down near NC 

[bncho]

12z CMC thumpy thumpy

[midatlanticweather]

It is situations like this that make me wonder what the model keyed on to come up with the solution it did. I bet it overplayed something on one run vs the other and that item made all the difference in the outcome. What item that was is up for debate. I find it fascinating to see such wild swings.. I mean, I am not always sure I want a perfect run, I want to understand what caused it and is it even plausible. I guess that is why we check ensembles!