CAPE Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I like the advertised surface look leading in with HP over the GLs into SE Canada and low pressure off the Maritimes. No real block though so everything is on the move. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: For the upcoming weekend threat, the majority of the members on the GEFS have a low tracking into the OV, then coastal transfer- but exactly where is a crapshoot. Some right over us, some further north, some along the NC coast. Plenty of spread. All the snow maps tell you at this point is that it is possible for it to snow somewhere in the region. Mixed bag on the EPS but a low moving across the south and off the SE coast is most prominent. Low across the south and off the SE coast would be what we want at this point in time, but the way storms are playing out this winter , anything is possible. Probably really won't have any handle on a real track till about Wednesday... At the earliest IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: You all have been paying more attention to this than I, but it seems there's an interesting difference between the physics-based models and the AI models in the overnight runs. Physics-models all have a weak northern stream shortwave pop a low that gives some snow to VA (again...) around Friday. Then they sort of shred the Baja low and don't bring it out coherently. AI models don't have that weak northern stream s/w that gives VA snow on Friday and bring the Baja low out more coherently, especially Euro AI. Thanks for this coherent explanation! It is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 hours ago, psuhoffman said: No but thanks for trying Mind telling where you got this cool chart? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 All of the uncertainty aside on next weekends storm potential, models are once again clawing back the extent of an advertised warmup as we get closer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EURO Trying to accumulate bookmarks of great weather model sites. Mind telling me how you found this and the site? Thanks in advance. msachsmas9n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, msachsmas9n said: Mind telling where you got this cool chart? Thanks in advance. Weather bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, jayyy said: All of the uncertainty aside on next weekends storm potential, models are once again clawing back the extent of an advertised warmup as we get closer It’ll be sometime in March before we finally get a sustained warmup at this rate. Maybe even April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Weather bell Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 23 minutes ago, msachsmas9n said: Thanks! Yw bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 hours ago, bncho said: Extremely similar to 18z actually considering the lead time Classic DC area winter storm. Seen it countless times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GfsAI is a warm frontal passage as slp heads to the Lakes. Lol Edit: looks like some snow before any change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Some areas S and W of DC might torch on Tue or Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Storm is still 7 days out models are gonna shift wildly many times I would be reading anything Into any model outlook till about Wednesday or Thursday. I mean if u all look at the storms we've had,.. modeling couldn't even get it right within 48 hours lol. So I would take any model with a grain of salt for next weekend ( 7 days out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Some areas S and W of DC might torch on Tue or Wed. Highs in 40s isn't exactly a torch. It's normal for early February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Highs in 40s isn't exactly a torch. It's normal for early February Guidance is showing possibility some areas get into the mid 50s and that may be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 FWIW, WB 12Z ICON takes both of the upcoming weekend waves to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Gfs is going from nothing to possibly a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 If you look at the last 6 runs of the gfs….it should probably be retired 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: FWIW, WB 12Z ICON takes the upcoming weekend wave to the south. But still Mid-Atlantic region if not DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Please stop posting. Who are you ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Ji said: Please stop posting. Who are you ? Relax...I'm a newbee just trying to figure out how to post pictures. It's complicated and there aren't any directions I can find anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Cape will be happy to see his 2/20 Blizzard on the GfsAI. Edit: favors northern areas but still a ton of snow based on TT maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 You are posting a senseless picture in a long range thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Cape will be happy to see his 2/20 Blizzard on the GfsAI. Edit: favors northern areas but still a ton of snow based on TT mapsThe model is beyond useless. Al my ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 I don't know what to say about the WB 12Z GFS except with the wild swings it is a work in progress; wait for the GEFS. Below is next Sunday 1pm compared to 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, Ji said: If you look at the last 6 runs of the gfs….it should probably be retired Yeah it's a wild swing from one extreme to another every run. It's horrible any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: But still Mid-Atlantic region if not DC. It's not really mid Atlantic proper.. it's more the southern extreme part of mid Atlantic.. more towards Southern half of USA down near NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12z CMC thumpy thumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It is situations like this that make me wonder what the model keyed on to come up with the solution it did. I bet it overplayed something on one run vs the other and that item made all the difference in the outcome. What item that was is up for debate. I find it fascinating to see such wild swings.. I mean, I am not always sure I want a perfect run, I want to understand what caused it and is it even plausible. I guess that is why we check ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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