Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,601
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    eloveday
    Newest Member
    eloveday
    Joined

February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post


Weather Will
 Share

Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For the upcoming weekend threat, the majority of the members on the GEFS have a low tracking into the OV, then coastal transfer- but exactly where is a crapshoot. Some right over us, some further north, some along the NC coast. Plenty of spread. All the snow maps tell you at this point is that it is possible for it to snow somewhere in the region.

Mixed bag on the EPS but a low moving across the south and off the SE coast is most prominent.

 Low across the south and off the SE coast would be what we want  at this point in time, but the way storms are playing out this winter ,   anything is possible. Probably really won't have any handle on a real track till about Wednesday... At the earliest IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You all have been paying more attention to this than I, but it seems there's an interesting difference between the physics-based models and the AI models in the overnight runs.  Physics-models all have a weak northern stream shortwave pop a low that gives some snow to VA (again...) around Friday.  Then they sort of shred the Baja low and don't bring it out coherently.  AI models don't have that weak northern stream s/w that gives VA snow on Friday and bring the Baja low out more coherently, especially Euro AI.  

Thanks for this coherent explanation!  It is appreciated. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storm is still 7 days out models are gonna shift wildly many times

 I would be reading anything Into any model outlook till about Wednesday or Thursday. I mean if u all look at the storms we've had,.. modeling couldn't even get it right within 48  hours lol. So I would take any model with a grain of salt for next weekend ( 7 days out) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is situations like this that make me wonder what the model keyed on to come up with the solution it did. I bet it overplayed something on one run vs the other and that item made all the difference in the outcome. What item that was is up for debate. I find it fascinating to see such wild swings.. I mean, I am not always sure I want a perfect run, I want to understand what caused it and is it even plausible. I guess that is why we check ensembles! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...