February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I welcome the rain in delmarva. 

Keep us posted 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pull that snow 75 miles SE and it's a forum winner

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Pull that snow 75 miles SE and it's a forum winner

Can we compromise on 50?  DC metro deserves it…but man don’t F over the northern fringes for the southern portion of our sub. They are doing like 200% better wrt climo the last 5 years than I am. 

[NorthArlington101]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What's this....the 8th modeled snowstorm on the AI thus season?  Hard to get excited at this point. But we hope.

I may be beating this drum too hard but the AIFS (and its ens) cannot deal with mixed precip. It's all gonna be shown as snow. It's ens quite frankly might show cold rain as snow. Gotta view it with a hair of skepticism, but would rather have it on our side

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can we compromise on 50?  DC metro deserves it…but man don’t F over the northern fringes for the southern portion of our sub. They are doing like 200% better wrt climo the last 5 years than I am. 

ok, 55.  Firm. Final offer

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok, 55.  Firm. Final offer

Sorry, 150 km it is

[clueless]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also I am feeling happy that I dodged the trip to Aspen for PD weekend. I knew that timeframe was unacceptable. 

Whaaa?  How does one dodge a trip to Aspen? 

[aldie 22]

If I have to live out here next to EastCoast NPZ then I deserve this storm

[GreyHat]

Nice 36F here magnolia Delaware,  the snow is melting real good. That's still a thick crust of ice on top.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ok, 55.  Firm. Final offer

I just realized that was a 10-1 map. After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60!  

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, clueless said:

Whaaa?  How does one dodge a trip to Aspen? 

by having a minor surgery on the day the flight would be! 

Aspen might have less real snow than DCA. Also I don't actually like skiing 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Nice 36F here magnolia Delaware,  the snow is melting real good. That's still a thick crust of ice on top.

Wrong thread 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I just realized that was a 10-1 map. After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60!  

That's really a nice looking map

[bncho]

Now THAT was a solid 12z suite. It's been awhile since we've had one of those. Now we seal the deal with some eye-popping ensembles.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Nice 36F here magnolia Delaware,  the snow is melting real good. That's still a thick crust of ice on top.

Keep us posted.  This will def help us extrapolate in this here LONG RANGE thread.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Wrong thread 

Yea that’s all that’s wrong 

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I may be beating this drum too hard but the AIFS (and its ens) cannot deal with mixed precip. It's all gonna be shown as snow. It's ens quite frankly might show cold rain as snow. Gotta view it with a hair of skepticism, but would rather have it on our side

I'm not beating any drum, but I am happy that you agree with what I have posted about more than once.  I don't trust the ensemble at all.

The deterministic side may be ok. 

[bncho]

12z GEFS is much better than the 6z GEFS

[GreyHat]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Pull that snow 75 miles SE and it's a forum winner

That may even go further NW, will see next week as the modeling keeps showing different out takes. 

The Ero AI 12z temps 2m warm, 850mb close and 700mb and 500mb are cold.

[bncho]

Just now, GreyHat said:

That may even go further NW, will see next week as the modeling keeps showing different out takes. 

The Ero AI 12z temps 2m warm, 850mb close and 700mb and 500mb are cold.

Maybe some of that EPS-AI snowfall output is sleet/zr or even 38 degree rain ?

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GEFS is much better than the 6z GEFS

WB 12Z GEFS only has two acceptable members out of 30 or 6%.  But it is a start!

[midatlanticweather]

Typically I would say this has a north trend written all over it. This year gives me a bit of pause.. Though I still think that.. But I think everyone has this concern. Still nice to track for now. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS only has two acceptable members out of 30 or 6%.  But it is a start!

And that’s why you use the median not the mean 

[Shad]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You think we shouldn’t take the op gfs at 200 hours too seriously? 

I mean it is pretty awesome but id let it get in its wheelhouse of 180 hrs before feeling 100% confident

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro says I might see my lawn sometime in May 

I hope not. 

Flurries just started here fwiw.

[Weather Will]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

And that’s why you use the median not the mean 

Few members all rain and several no storm or whiffs. WB 12Z GEFS.

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wrong thread 

can you punt this guy to the philly thread?

[NorthArlington101]

^ some of that is today but not much of it

[Ji]

^ some of that is today but not much of it

Disastrous

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Disastrous

It’s 200 hours out. What kind of signal are you expecting?