February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[GreyHat]

ICON 0z positive and flat out front allows system go ots.

NAM 0z not as positive and has heights rising in the Atlantic and allows system to come up north. Of course it's at the long range that isn't accurate. 

Wait for AI models. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Which probably explains why I am so hateful right now. I got 28. Under climo. In fact my climo has dropped over an inch and a half in the past decade. That is ridiculous. 2016 is the last year I beat climo. And it was because of one storm. Yes it was an amazing 40 inch storm. But generally, it doesnt matter here anymore. Cold winter too far south, warm winter too far north. We just cant score here anymore. Add in the fact that i CHOSE this place to live 25 years ago for climate and it makes it that much more frustrating. Regardless I am really close to moving north soon. I am done with Virginia anyways. 

I hear you. But the last 2 ninos did you no good. My only point was assuming a Nino fixes this seems flawed. The issue hasn’t been enso. 

[GreyHat]

The 0z AIGFS looks like the NAM with heights rising in front. 

Cleaner more NE

[Ji]

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

It was one step forward, one step back. literally shifted south 50 miles, which is noise for the GFS.

[Ji]

It was one step forward, one step back. literally shifted south 50 miles, which is noise for the GFS.

It was more the noise. We went from 3 inches to a non event

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

Yeah, but the AIGFS doesn't back it and is more like the NAM

[GreyHat]

The 0z Canadian says nada. Looks like a system coming down from Canada keeps the system south and ots.

[Nomz]

you know you can do copy image on the map

[RevWarReenactor]

It was so obvious the gfs was going to turn that little swath of precip mid week into nothing. Next run it will probably  be gone entirely.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like it.  But..84hr NAM and all.  Need the Euro on board.  Fuck the GFS

AI Euro looks better than 18z

[bncho]

Just now, Cobalt said:

AI Euro looks better than 18z

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, bncho said:

It’s gonna be the worst inch ever!  

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s gonna be the worst inch ever!  

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You give him an inch…

[Steve25]

Just to clarify, we are not concerned about fighting a significant warmup after next weekend? 
 

Trying to not put much stock into the 0z suite tonight 

[ravensrule]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s gonna be the worst inch ever!  

Story of your life. 

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You give him an inch…

He has 10”. 

[T. August]

13 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Just to clarify, we are not concerned about fighting a significant warmup after next weekend? 
 

Trying to not put much stock into the 0z suite tonight 

Seems short-lived on most OPs and ens guidance, with cold air waiting near by. Not to mention the seasonal trend of warmups being muted as we get closer in.

[Ji]

I hope the 6z Nam is right

[nw baltimore wx]

6z kind of nam’d us for Wednesday.

[GreyHat]

6z ICON says OTS 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

6z ICON says OTS 

?

[mitchnick]

Gfs moved a bit north from it's far southern lean at 0z.

[Ji]

?

Models should not be free to 12 year olds

[snowcane33]

Darn, looking at the radar and seeing all that precipitation is like going to a seafood buffet and not being able to eat a damn thing.

Torture but reality.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Models should not be free to 12 year olds

I think he must have pulled up 0z by accident, which had nothing. 

[Ji]

I think he must have pulled up 0z by accident, which had nothing. 

No I think he was looking at this

[stormtracker]

Da fuck yall up this early for? Insomnia is my excuse. Ain’t been to sleep yet

[mitchnick]

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow.

Edit: I'm referring to long range.