Arctic Hounds Unleashed: Long Duration Late January/Early February Cold Snap

[ORH_wxman]

There’s no chance NYC goes below 0F. Unless there is just some sort of catastrophic model failure of 3-5C at 925mb. 

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Sunday morning looks coldest in NYC metro most have seen in their lives… Once in 50 year level potential with this.

0F in CPK is conservative. The bias is to take UHI and +5 vs guidance but the in situ cold and winds will mitigate those affects.

Very relieved personally that the axis of cold is about 250 miles west of here. Binghamton NY flirting with -20F before wind chill is holy shit level cold for our latitude. 
 

 

What??? lol not sure what happened to you but this is nonsense.  NWS has a low of 6 which looks good

[jbenedet]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Where do they normally come straight outta? Compton?

 

Arctic is a big place— 60N +. 
 

This is the top of the planet.

[qg_omega]

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Also seeing that latest guidance keeps areas like binghamton, Albany and Syracuse NY sub zero all day Saturday…
 

Good luck infrastructure….

No lol

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s no chance NYC goes below 0F. Unless there is just some sort of catastrophic model failure of 3-5C at 925mb. 

The models that get CP below zero have DPs -17 those that are above are -5

[kdxken]

Cold seems somewhat muted? Doesn't look to get below zero here.

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Cold seems somewhat muted? Doesn't look to get below zero here.

I don’t think it’s as bad temp wise as we have had the last 7 days; let’s see how bad the winds are? Wouldn’t be upset if this busted both temp and wind wise

[qg_omega]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

What??? lol not sure what happened to you but this is nonsense.  NWS has a low of 6 which looks good

Maybe coldest in 3 years

[jbenedet]

Somebody’s nervous…

 

NYC is below 6F, by midnight tonight.

[Modfan2]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Somebody’s nervous…

 

NYC is around 6F, by midnight tonight.

Still thinking meat of this stays to it west? 

[jbenedet]

29 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Still thinking meat of this stays to it west? 

To our west? 
 

Yes. 
 

West of CT river is probably coldest in a few years. That’s relevant for here.
 

But NY NJ and PA are challenging records.

[jbenedet]

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Cold seems somewhat muted? Doesn't look to get below zero here.

We -NAO 

Need to be west for the serious cold.

 

[jbenedet]

I’m seeing that Binghamton may not crack zero all day tomorrow either.

Air temperature….

I don’t know what that means historically but that’s wild to me. 

[dendrite]

Too bad Binghamton’s high will be 20F today.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad Binghamton’s high will be 20F today.

Man cold in the Daks

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad Binghamton’s high will be 20F today.

I’m aware. 
 

so it is as records go…

 

Will need to look at this in terms of hours sub zero just to scale it..

No idea on the history for Binghamton.It just seems incredibly impressive for this part of the world..

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

To our west? 
 

Yes. 
 

West of CT river is probably coldest in a few years. That’s relevant for here.
 

But NY NJ and PA are challenging records.

We are not, coldest in three years

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I’m aware. 
 

so it is as records go…

 

Will need to look at this in terms of hours sub zero just to scale it..

No idea on the history for Binghamton.It just seems incredibly impressive for this part of the world..

Happens

[dendrite]

And BGM probably gets a little above 0F tomorrow too.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Happens

Yea I was talking duration.

 

I know they do -10’s. It’s a cold climate.

 

Let’s see if it can -15.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And BGM probably gets a little above 0F tomorrow too.

Agreed. Probably*
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Temp has dropped from 23.6 at 7:30 to 13.6 at 9:42 here in EH. 

WXW2 went from 19.2 to -5.2 with a WC of -25. 

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s no chance NYC goes below 0F. Unless there is just some sort of catastrophic model failure of 3-5C at 925mb. 

Or a freaky event like Feb 8, 1963.  At 11 PM on 2/7 it was 30° and Tex Antoine forecast a low of 20.  When the temp dropped to 25 at midnight we wondered.  By 6 the next morning Central Park reported 5° and by 7 it had dropped to 2.  The low was -2 that morning with a stiff NW breeze, and some forecasters were talking 5-10 below zero for the next morning and were explaining the bust was due to a very cold blob somehow slipped from above to ground level.  (I understood none of that.)  The cold disappeared as fast as it arrived; after an afternoon high of 16 on 2/8 the temp only got down to 11 on 2/9 and by 2/10 the day's temp was 40/30, with 1.1" RA on 2/11-12.

Got down to -2 during the overnight, the 15th straight day with subzero minima.  That tops the 14 days on Jan 15-28, 2003 for the longest run here.  Checked my Fort Kent  records, thinking that place would have much longer runs, but tops (and only one longer than 14 days) was 18 from Jan 16 thru Feb 2, 1982.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Or a freaky event like Feb 8, 1963.  At 11 PM on 2/7 it was 30° and Tex Antoine forecast a low of 20.  When the temp dropped to 25 at midnight we wondered.  By 6 the next morning Central Park reported 5° and by 7 it had dropped to 2.  The low was -2 that morning with a stiff NW breeze, and some forecasters were talking 5-10 below zero for the next morning and were explaining the bust was due to a very cold blob somehow slipped from above to ground level.  (I understood none of that.)  The cold disappeared as fast as it arrived; after an afternoon high of 16 on 2/8 the temp only got down to 11 on 2/9 and by 2/10 the day's temp was 40/30, with 1.1" RA on 2/11-12.

Got down to -2 during the overnight, the 15th straight day with subzero minima.  That tops the 14 days on Jan 15-28, 2003 for the longest run here.

Pretty good cold pool with that shot

[tamarack]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good cold pool with that shot

Hudson Valley horror?

[dendrite]

BGM -3 and gusting to 53mph is fun

[powderfreak]

Down to 3F in the valley, -10F at picnic tables.

Dropping fast now.

[dendrite]

Gene is 20° and Kevin is 8°

[metagraphica]

Snow belts are cranking with this cold blasting in:

[Connecticut Appleman]

Down to 4 degrees here in New Hartford at 2:00 this afternoon.