January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

Next panel is nice..but here comes the thermals 

Markedly better than 6z

[Buddy1987]

Sleet line really accelerating between hrs 42-45 northbound.

[yoda]

Is this better @NorthArlington101

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NBM para

  Love that you showed the para!   Friendly reminder that the NBM winter fields update at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z, so instead of showing the 12Z, it's best to wait one hour and use a version that incorporates more recent guidance.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, yoda said:

Is this better @NorthArlington101

I'm honestly not that impressed - looks like .17" of precip for DCA from 42-45? We need more

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Is this better @NorthArlington101

That's safely snow.  Wish we could hold that until at least 15z

[LP08]

3k looks better with the earlier stuff, at least to my weenie eyes

[Shad]

changeover to ICE happens much faster on the NAM for folks in VA

[yoda]

Still snow with ridiculous omega DC metro at 12z

[LP08]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm honestly not that impressed - looks like .17" of precip for DCA from 42-45? We need more

It’s wetter but we fight over head temps.

[stormtracker]

15z is close and I know for sure we're going over shortly after it not during that panel

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah, this 12k run isn't really any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.

[Weather Will]

Much better than WB 12Z 12K NAM compared to 6Z

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Who’s got the clown map?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, this 12k run isn't any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.

Isn’t better? It’s definitely better. Way heavier pecip over 6z 

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

lol.  Comically awful.   Could be right, but we got better modeling to get threw.  Don't be so down

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, this 12k run isn't really any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.

It's better re: wetter

[NorthArlington101]

3k doesn't really look better to me. We hope and pray it's wrong. Starting down the barrel of less than warning criteria snow DC-south at this point.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, this 12k run isn't any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.

12k is weird and annoying, in that it trended better in almost every way I wanted...better trough amplification/orientation, better coastal, colder initially...but it trended worse in the one way that matters most, it blasted the mid level warm later up about 3 hours faster...depsite all the other improvements...it basically just said...yes its better synpptically in every way...but lets just make it warmer to F with you.  

[Terpeast]

Fwiw 3k has the sleet line a tick south at hr 34. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's better re: wetter

I guess but if it's gonna race the sleet line up faster it comes out in the wash

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

As of 10 minutes ago 

 

Looks like they upped the amounts a bit 

[NorthArlington101]

I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me

[NorthArlington101]

Nobody also tops 10:1 rates of .5"/hr on the 3k. It's not really a thump.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me

A lot of analysis for the 12z Nam at 48 hrs…cycle through the last 6 runs at h5 and surface and tell me you’d make a forecast off it? 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me

On the upside, this will be the most impressive sleet event since at least 2017, if not 2007.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Isn’t better? It’s definitely better. Way heavier pecip over 6z 

It's worse for VA up to about DC...it's better for us...but what's frustrating is despite some pretty decent synoptic improvements...I liked the track of the low and orientation of the thermal boundary better...the coastal development...there was a lot I liked about the run...it got significantly worse in the one freaking thing that actually matters the most...it simply warmed the mid layers a little which blasted the changeover to sleet up a few hours faster during the most critical time period.  If the thermals from the 6z had held with the other improvements from 12z it would have been a significantly better run.  

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

A lot of analysis for the 12z Nam at 48 hrs…cycle through the last 6 runs at h5 and surface and tell me you’d make a forecast off it? 

Clearly the NWS wouldn't but I'm still happy to be concerned about it. Hate the NAM but when it stubbornly puts out a red flag we should usually pay attention.

[Buddy1987]

FV3 looks much nicer than the Nam's. Good bit colder though, although idk if that's a bias it has or not.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's worse for VA up to about DC...it's better for us...but what's frustrating is despite some pretty decent synoptic improvements...I liked the track of the low and orientation of the thermal boundary better...the coastal development...there was a lot I liked about the run...it got significantly worse in the one freaking thing that actually matters the most...it simply warmed the mid layers a little which blasted the changeover to sleet up a few hours faster during the most critical time period.  If the thermals from the 6z had held with the other improvements from 12z it would have been a significantly better run.  

I’m taking the positives out of it, because I agree it was a fair bit better in a lot of ways. This anomalous airmass is extremely impressive and I know warm air to tongues can easily screw the mid levels, but we don’t have a screaming jet sending in a firehouse here like we have sometimes to just send it all to shit.